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+--- Thread: The 2nd Crimean War? (/showthread.php?tid=3944)
- ordnance11 - 08-23-2014
Thr Russians had begun to move troops across the Ukranian border border
Begun, the Ukrainian War has.
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- robkelk - 08-23-2014
ordnance11 Wrote:Begun, the Ukrainian War has.We knew that back in March...
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."
- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012
- Foxboy - 08-23-2014
Heck, I had a "tinfoil hat" flash about this (so go ahead and laugh): Putin paid ISIS to execute their American hostage to draw the US Attention away from Ukraine.
''We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat
them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary.''
-- James Nicoll
- ordnance11 - 08-23-2014
Quote:robkelk wrote:That when Putin was using surrogates. That was plausible deniability. Now that he is using his own troops? Only the most gullible would believe it.Quote:ordnance11 wrote:We knew that back in March...
Begun, the Ukrainian War has.
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- khagler - 08-23-2014
It's interesting that the Russians are using the approach of unsolicited "humanitarian aid" with military guards backed up by heavy fire support. That's considerably different than the two invasions of Chechnya, and actually reminds me more of the US invasion of Somalia.
- robkelk - 08-23-2014
ordnance11 Wrote:There's been a fair bit of evidence since March that the "little green men" are RF soldiers with the insignia removed from their uniforms.Quote:robkelk wrote:That when Putin was using surrogates. That was plausible deniability. Now that he is using his own troops? Only the most gullible would believe it.Quote:ordnance11 wrote:Begun, the Ukrainian War has.
We knew that back in March...
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."
- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012
- ordnance11 - 08-23-2014
Quote:robkelk wrote:The Russians can claim that these are "volunteers" prior to this point. No one is believing them, but it's a fig leaf. Putin must be getting desperate.Quote:ordnance11 wrote:There's been a fair bit of evidence since March that the "little green men" are RF soldiers with the insignia removed from their uniforms.Quote:robkelk wrote:That when Putin was using surrogates. That was plausible deniability. Now that he is using his own troops? Only the most gullible would believe it.
We knew that back in March...
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- robkelk - 08-24-2014
ordnance11 Wrote:Either desperate, or sufficiently (over)confident that aren't going to do anything to stop him.Quote:robkelk wrote:That when Putin was using surrogates. That was plausible deniability. Now that he is using his own troops? Only the most gullible would believe it.Quote:ordnance11 wrote:robkelk wrote:ordnance11 wrote:Begun, the Ukrainian War has.
We knew that back in March...
There's been a fair bit of evidence since March that the "little green men" are RF soldiers with the insignia removed from their uniforms.The Russians can claim that these are "volunteers" prior to this point. No one is believing them, but it's a fig leaf. Putin must be getting desperate.
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."
- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012
- ordnance11 - 08-24-2014
Where had I seen that scenario before?
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- Black Aeronaut - 08-24-2014
Quote:robkelk wrote:The trouble is that I worry if we actually will do anything about it. Realistically speaking, as horrible as this is it is not something that involves US interests. And this nation is very, very war weary at this point. The only thing that I think will get us, the USA, involved will be a full blown UN resolution on the matter, and have it backed by China. ...I don't see it happening.
Either desperate, or sufficiently (over)confident that aren't going to do anything to stop him.
What would be even more likely would be if RF forces attacked a US asset in the area. Say, a US Navy ship - more likely than not a Destroyer or Cruiser from 6th Fleet tasked with keeping an eye on the situation. That might actually get the legislature to sit up and scream, "That's the last straw!"
If I were in the seat of power and I wanted to set up a catspaw - a 'Give us an excuse, please!' - then I'd find out what ship in the fleet has the best damage control team and stick them in the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey. If Putin really thinks he's Khadafi for some reason, then we'll know soon enough.
- Dartz - 08-24-2014
Uhhh...... that's a really bad idea. War is generally a bad idea. Especially wars between America and Russia.
And really, really unlikely anyway. The simple truth is, nobody really cares too much about Ukraine. Russia can't really do much more than bluster and stir the pot without risking their economy - the EU relies on Russian gas, but even the EU can get annoyed to the point where it'll say Nope! keep your gas. I know we've got our own gas reserves for up to two years, using just native resources.
________________________________
--m(^0^)m-- Wot, no sig?
- ordnance11 - 08-24-2014
Quote:Black Aeronaut wrote:If a full blown war goes up between the Ukraine and Russia, Poland and the Baltic States will demand Nato help. And since they are NATO members, the rest of the Alliance will be obligated. The US is drawn in at that point.Quote:robkelk wrote:The trouble is that I worry if we actually will do anything about it. Realistically speaking, as horrible as this is it is not something that involves US interests. And this nation is very, very war weary at this point. The only thing that I think will get us, the USA, involved will be a full blown UN resolution on the matter, and have it backed by China. ...I don't see it happening.
Either desperate, or sufficiently (over)confident that aren't going to do anything to stop him.
What would be even more likely would be if RF forces attacked a US asset in the area. Say, a US Navy ship - more likely than not a Destroyer or Cruiser from 6th Fleet tasked with keeping an eye on the situation. That might actually get the legislature to sit up and scream, "That's the last straw!"
If I were in the seat of power and I wanted to set up a catspaw - a 'Give us an excuse, please!' - then I'd find out what ship in the fleet has the best damage control team and stick them in the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey. If Putin really thinks he's Khadafi for some reason, then we'll know soon enough.
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- Black Aeronaut - 08-24-2014
Even so, I still can't see us contributing much. Unless Russia directly attacks the US beforehand, which ain't gonna happen. :p
Honestly, it's not something I'd be looking forward to. Knowing Putin, that kind of direct, high-level conflict (as in USA vs. Russia, mono-y-mono) can escalate to threats of using nuclear weapons - I'm pretty sure he'd say things like that just to get his way.
- ordnance11 - 08-24-2014
Quote:Black Aeronaut wrote:He has already made hints about it. The big difference is at this point is that Russia is not the USSR..yet. Putin's pact with the Russians is that if he'll make it a better life for them if they give him carte blanche to do things as he sees fit. Like what Hitler promised German n 1932. He starts threatening nukes, his cronies will start to get nervous. Afer all, what good is money in a radioactive earth?
Even so, I still can't see us contributing much. Unless Russia directly attacks the US beforehand, which ain't gonna happen. :p
Honestly, it's not something I'd be looking forward to. Knowing Putin, that kind of direct, high-level conflict (as in USA vs. Russia, mono-y-mono) can escalate to threats of using nuclear weapons - I'm pretty sure he'd say things like that just to get his way.
As to what we can do?...airpower initially. Some one in the Pentagon had better start dusting off the Reforger plans and schedule an exercise based on that.
__________________
Into terror!, Into valour!
Charge ahead! No! Never turn
Yes, it's into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn!
- Scarlett Pimpernell
- Black Aeronaut - 08-29-2014
Quote:ordnance11 wrote:.... Hoi, Russia! Becoming the thing you hate, much?
Like what Hitler promised German n 1932.
- robkelk - 08-30-2014
Heard a report on the radio yesterday about a Russian woman commenting on recent history.
In the 1980s when the USSR was active in Afghanistan, sometimes soldiers would be deployed on missions they weren't allowed to tell their families about. If the soldiers died during the missions, their families were never told what the missions were, although they were informed that posthumous awards had been bestowed on the soldiers.
When Russia was fighting in Georgia and Chechnya in the last two decades, sometimes soldiers would be deployed on missions they weren't allowed to tell their families about. If the soldiers died during the missions, their families were never told what the missions were, although they were informed that posthumous awards had been bestowed on the soldiers.
In the last fem months, sometimes Russian soldiers have been deployed on missions they aren't allowed to tell their families about. If the soldiers die during the missions, their families are never told what the missions were, although they are informed that posthumous awards had been bestowed on the soldiers.
So... draw your own conclusions, based on history.
--
Rob Kelk
"Governments have no right to question the loyalty of those who oppose
them. Adversaries remain citizens of the same state, common subjects of
the same sovereign, servants of the same law."
- Michael Ignatieff, addressing Stanford University in 2012