Another interesting bit of election fact.

[Fidoohki]

I did some poking and found out that alot of the states that Pres. Elect Obama carried

he did by winning a few counties in the state only. hardly a 'mandate'.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

[Ayiekie]

Oh, for the love of... there was already a thread for this nonsense.

Less than 60,000 votes would have won the election for Kerry. You know,
the one that produced the "mandate" talking point.

There is no such thing as a true blowout in American politics. For the love of god, McGovern still carried almost 40% of the vote and that was the most
lopsided election in modern history. A less than 3% vote shift was all that was needed to make Carter win in 1980.

You are kidding yourself. The election wasn't close; it was a crushing Republican defeat on most fronts. If Republicans do not regain a goodly chunk of the
swing votes, they are destined to a series of painful defeats, just like the Democrats have been since Reagan. That doesn't mean their electoral prospects
are suddenly hopeless, merely that a small swing is all that ever happens in US politics, and it is thus completely crucial. If Obama holds on to most of the
mushy middle he got here, he will easily win in 2012. If he does not, it still will not be some exciting repudiation of Democratic policies, because barring an
unthinkable disaster well over 40% (and very likely over 45%) of the votes will be cast to the Democratic ticket. Nobody has ever had a mandate in US history,
by the standards you want to apply to Obama.

He won a mandate because he won, and Democrats also won the house and improved their standings in the Senate, where they were already a majority. Get over it.

[Morganite]

Nobody has ever had a mandate in US history, by the standards you want to apply to Obama.

So what should define a mandate?

Given how the term seems to be used, I think 75% of the popular vote would be reasonable. I'm quite comfortable with saying no one ever had one.

-Morgan.

[Evil Midnight Lurker]

Also, consider that if he won a given state by carrying only "a few counties," those few counties must have had a disproportionate amount of the
state's, I don't know, actual population?

Consider this as well: Obama got 47% of the popular vote in Texas. TEXAS. Gore and Kerry got 38% each.

If he does well these next four years, it is well within the bounds of possibility that the Republican Party might fail to
carry Texas in 2012. That hasn't happened since Carter.

--Sam

"And now... I bake."

[M Fnord]

For general edification, here's a population-adjusted map of the 2008 election. It's based on the county-by-county map with the counties distorted by population (higher the population, the larger the county & vice-versa). Red, blue and purple tones mean what you should expect them to mean:



So that gives you an idea of where all the people are & how they voted.
Mr. Fnord interdimensional man of mystery

FenWiki - Your One-Stop Shop for Fenspace Information

"I. Drink. Your. NERDRAGE!"

[Evil Midnight Lurker]

AIEEE! YOG-SOTHOTH! Run for your lives!

--Sam

"SPOON!"

[Fidoohki]

Ayieka: I think you are missing the point. A mandate is when a majority of demographics go the same

way. Ages, races, urban and rural. Like that. He did clearly win but the county breakdowns shows that

he won urban areas while losing Rural areas in a lot of states. I jsut found it interesting that

in a majority of the states he carried, he didn't have alot of counties on his side.

Morganni: 75%? Seems a bit high. if you want a percentage of the popular vote to determine it then I'd

say 60% would qualify. My opinion only.

M Fnord:: Dude.. the colors man... the colors.

[Morganite]

I'm not sure it's not a bit low, really.

But then, it does depend on what's meant by 'mandate'. The way it's treated, I don't want to call someone having it unless they've got
a really impressive majority.

So. Voter turnout according to one article I found may have reached 62.5%, which would be higher than it's been in some time.

Of those who voted, Obama got 53% according to the CNN page.

So, that gives Obama around 33.1% of eligible voters, with everyone else voting for someone else, or not voting at all.

Let's say a mandate requires 51% of eligible voters. With 62.5% voter turnout, that would require... 81.6% of the popular vote.

Yeah, I'm thinking "mandate" isn't something that should be thrown around lightly. If no president in history's ever had one by this
definition (which wouldn't surprise me), I feel comfortable with that.

On that image: Looks like something out of a CSI episode. Something very painful.

-Morgan.

[Norgarth]

Fodoohki: Part of Ayieka's point is that Obama had as much reason/right to use the word 'mandate' as Bush did.

As for who did the voting, he may not have had the majority of the counties but he seems to have had the majority of the population. What does it matter if he
won fewer counties? Does winning 5 counties with population 'X' count more than 1 county with population '10X'?
___________________________
"I've always wanted to be somebody, but I should have been more specific." - George Carlin

[Morganite]

Well, Fidoohki hasn't claimed (at least, in this thread) that Bush had any right to use it either. '.'

As for the counties thing... well, like he said, it's demographics. Probably something that could be subjected to interesting analysis.

-Morgan.

[Fidoohki]

I might try to get the county breakdowns for the 2004 election to see if it would qualify

but to be honest I doubt it would either. Don't you just love the 'two wrongs don't

make a right' that most political discussions ignore?

[Foxboy]

IIRC the only President who ever had a "Mandate" by those standards would have been Washington, who was (reportedly) ecstatic that he wasn't
elected unanimously.
''We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat
them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary.''

-- James Nicoll

[Fidoohki]

Exactly using the term 'mandate' just smacks wrong to begin with but if you HAVE to use it then

set it as high as you can. Admittedly 60% I set is rather low in retrospect.