Brexit or Breaksit?

[hazard]

Looks like the people of Britain aren't exactly happy about this. Already 1.5 million signatories to a petition to not prorogue or dissolve Parliament until either there's a sufficient extension for negotiation and/or implementation of effective Brexit preparations or Article 50 has been revoked.

And while that petition is already 2 weeks old, it saw more than a million signatories in a single day.

[Labster]

Well, this sounds good for possibly taking a holiday in England next year, given the direction the GBP-USD value is heading.  I mean, I'll feel a little guilty eating when some people won't be able to afford to, but it's kind of like visiting Thailand or Egypt.  You go see the ruins of the old and powerful culture and enjoy the cheap rates.

[Dartz]

They're going fucking berserk over it is what they're doing. I don't think I've ever seen them get this animated over anything. BJ's speech yesterday was drowned out by boos and chants in a manner that reminded me of fucking Ceausescu.

MP's are crossing the floor, ending the government's working majority. That's it - it's now most definitely a minority government. For all their bluster the DUP are now effectively worthless to maintaining a majority that doesn't exist.

The Parliament is now trying to take control of the agenda once more to ram through legislation before the prorogue. Rhees-Mogg is complaining that this whole thing is 'Constitutionally Ireegular' which seems more than a little hyopcritcaly. They're trying to pass a law that makes it impossible

Bodybags are being stockpiled. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-ne...t-16858123

BJ seems content on ignoring the centuries of unwritten 'gentlemans agreements' that are the British "constitution" and ram one through anyway, by following the absolute letter of the law using mechnasms originally intended to restrain an out of control government.

Theresa May is no longer the worst Prime Minister in history. She was bad at the job - but actually tried to do it.

BJ's strategery for Brexit is to run out the clock, like the classic 'cheques in the post' response you give when really you couldnm't be arsed ever paying..

The Speaker of the House - who is supposed to be neutral - is now effectively siding with the opposition.

[Labster]

Theresa May is no longer the worst Prime Minister in history. She was bad at the job - but actually tried to do it.

I know exactly how this feels.  We had George W. Bush who definitely tried to do his job, but surrounded himself with a bad crowd.  But now we have Trump, who today is issuing his own Hurricane Warnings that contradict the National Weather Service.

The Speaker is obligated to side with the opposition in this case.  The role of the Speaker is to enable effective, fair and representative governance, so it's not his fault Government is opposed to democracy, or functioning.

[robkelk]

Reuters: Johnson government loses its majority of 1 after Tory MP Phillip Lee crosses floor

He already has a government, so he can keep going... but the first time there's a whipped vote (the party whips say "you will vote the party line, or else"), he's in trouble.

Quoting from the comments (yeah, I know), this offering from John Hallberg:

See him creeping down the wall
Borissss the spider
Government about to fall...
Borissss the spider.

[Rajvik]

I'm sorry, but did you honestly expect any less than a dealless Brexit. All sides were being too stubborn and something had to give. Give Johnson credit, he saw what was going to happen regardless of what anyone wanted and did what was necessary to get the pain over with.

[hazard]

I'm sorry, but did you honestly expect any less than a dealless Brexit. All sides were being too stubborn and something had to give. Give Johnson credit, he saw what was going to happen regardless of what anyone wanted and did what was necessary to get the pain over with.

Yes.

Because MPs understand that a no-deal Brexit will be a disaster for the UK. There's a reason Boris is trying to force Parliament to the sidelines and prevent them from interfering with his plans; they absolutely would sink a no-deal attempt and as a result his government with them. They're not taking it lying down and are trying to fight back.

He's already called a new general election on October 14th, and the conservatives are likely to lose a lot of power in that election.

[classicdrogn]

The conservatives took quite a pounding in the last elections, and people weren't as fired up about it then. I wonder how the members who broke with the Silly Party vote and got kicked out by Johnson will fare - and how they'll run, for that matter. Flip to the Sensible or Very Silly tickets? Form a new Slightly Silly Party of their own? Do something that isn't a Monty Python reference, I suppose.

[Rajvik]

Hazard, they've been bickering over this for two years to no avail, i doubt the EU is going to go, "Yeah sure, just tell us when you've figured out what you want to do and we'll just sit here and wait for it." A new referendum is unlikely to change anything from what i've been hearing, (admitting biased sources) and all continuing to bicker was going to do was piss people off. when there is no good faith to be had, you cannot negotiate in good faith, less you be taken for a fool

[robkelk]

The EU has already agreed to the deal that was worked out two years ago. It's the UK that's dragging its heels.

[nemonowan]

The main roadblock to the current deal (and let's be honest, with the whole Brexit process from the beginning) is Ireland.
EU is adamant that there not be a hard border between Ireland and North Ireland, in support of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles. They didn't buy May's promises that technology would spontaneously appear to magically create a hard but premeable border, so they insisted in including the backstop into the deal, ensuring that frontiers would still be transitable for years to come while the problem is solved. But British Conservatives reject the backstop because they see it as a way for the EU to de facto keep Britain into their zone without an exit date. (OK, other parties and/or individual legislators have other issues with May's deal, but this was the main reason why May couldn't sell her deal to her own party. If they had bought it they would have had enough votes to approve the deal in parliament, and we wouldn't now have Boris at the helm playing chicken with the iceberg).
Of course there is an answer to the Ireland issue so simple that a five-year old could think of it: keep the land border with NI open as the Good Friday Agreement demands, and put all border and customs controls on the much easier to police sea frontier between NI and England. This would of course be a bit inconvenient for the british citizens of NI, but it should be an acceptable price to pay for keeping the peace and delivering an orderly Brexit, no?
Not for the north irish ultra-right-wing UKIP, unfortunately, because they rejected offhand any deal that used that mechanism. Thay see it a first step in slippery slope towards leaving the UK and reunifying with Ireland. and since May depended on their votes to keep the conservative majority in parliament, she had to bend over and do their bidding.
Still, yesterday conservatives lost their majority anyway, and therefore UKIP should have lost all their kingmaking powers. So changing the backstop for the NI sea frontier should be back on the table. It is unlikely that Boris would go there, since what he actually wants is No Deal, but parliament or an election could force his hand.

[hazard]

An election won't force his hand because he's PM and already declared an election after the current Brexit date.

Parliament would have to force his hand instead, and he's doing everything he can to hamstring them.

[Norgarth]

What I don't understand is what is what Johnson expects to happen afterwords if he succeeds in forcing a no deal Brexit? Not what is likely to happen (I've gotten the distinct feeling that he's as divorced from reality as Trump), but what he thinks is going to happen.

[Dartz]

Minor correction - UKIP are a distinctly English phenomenon. Nemonowan is thinking of the DUP.

The EU is not going to give concessions to the UK, for the same reason the Canada won't. The EU is the bigger, stronger power. That it has not been obvious about it in the same way bigger stronger powers normally are is unusual in world history and has arguably allowed the Moggian types to continue to think they're bigger than they are.

But ultimately, what happens was the EU and the British Government negoatiated a deal. It was a good deal - it involved NI being effectively co-regulation with the EU while still being part of the UK, like a sort of free port but not quite.. But it managed to encroach upon the one single issue that the single issue party propping up the British Government actually cared about. And so when Theresa May proudly brough her well-won deal to the rest of the cabinet that one single issue party promptly threatened to topple the government over this one issue.

Theresa May went to the EU and proposed a change - that this backstop now extend to the entire UK rather than just NI. Which in turn caused half the conservative party to have a fucking conniption. She agreed all of these with the EU without consulting anyone on her own side, or even knowing exactly what they wanted.

The EU is fed-up. And it cannot under any circumstances change its basic functioning to accomodate one state that doesn't even want to be part of it. The EU has negotiated in good faith throughout the whole thing and generally been fairly friendly.

Britain needs to learn that the EU is big enough to dictate the terms of doing business with it, and that Britain is most definitely not Great anymore.

[classicdrogn]

ohshit I think I juyst ruptured somthin laungn at teh obviou jokm

[classicdrogn]

Well, I didn't actually do any lasting damage, but I did manage to pull a muscle in my back. Of course, since I didn't do any lasting damage, they just told me to take an over-the-counter anti-inflammatory and sleep it off,and not to worry unless it's still hurting in a couple of days. So... ow? "Make thing X great again" jokes no longer seem very funny.

[Rajvik]

Or Dartz, they tell the EU where they can shove it, and move on. I can understand why the NNI border is an issue, because one of the original issues was the EU saying "You WILL take these Middle Eastern refugees that have reached the northern French coast and tried to force a crossing when Britain said Hell no. If they leave NI border that open they are practically asking the EU to ship those refugees to Ireland to back door them into Britain.

[robkelk]

Or Dartz, they tell the EU where they can shove it, and move on.

As Dartz made perfectly clear, that would be exactly like Canada telling the USA where they can shove it and moving on. Would you tolerate that from us?

[hazard]

Rajvik, perhaps you are not reading things, but closing the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland will cause a new flare up in terrorist violence in that region. The Good Friday Agreement is the only thing preventing that and a key provision of that agreement is the free flow of people between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

There's a reason that the backstop that was proposed involved establishing a customs line between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, and not between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It'd even cover the issue of refugees moving the Great Britain through Ireland. Not that that is much of a threat these days, as the refugee flows are slowing considerably and have been for some time.

[Labster]

If they leave NI border that open they are practically asking the EU to ship those refugees to Ireland to back door them into Britain.

Really?  Really????

It's hard to take you seriously when you say crazy shit like this.

[robkelk]

CBC Analysis: How Europe sees Boris Johnson's Brexit manoeuvres

The article resists summarizing in any meaningful way, so no tl;dr possible. You'll just have to read it yourself.

[nemonowan]

On the subject of what closing the Ireland frontier means, I link you to a video with a reportage about the facts on the ground:

https://twitter.com/MrNiallMcGarry/statu...9291326464

[Dartz]

Worth it for the headline alone

It quite appearrs that the sole reason the current admininistration in the US is backing Brexit - is because they would rather the EU have to rely on it than on itself. Or, for that matter, they're looking at the UK as the next country to dump half of Wisconsin's oversubsidised 'cheese' onto.

Although, most amusing, was a conversation had with a Northern supplier, where the Big day was referred to as the Big Oops. Of course, they had no plans and had been told nothing of what was going to happen from their government either so we both just sort of agreed to carry on as if nothing was happening in the vain hope that it'll cause nothing to happen.

Of course, something is happening.

Jeremy Corbyn has managed to defeat the government on a bill to hold an election. An odd occurance - unioque in British democracy. So broken is the trust in the Government that the opposition has just grasped the wheel and made the government irrelevant.

The Government is now legally required to seek an extension from the EU. The EU has run out of patience and will likely show them what finger to sit on. They have fucked around so much the EU is pissed. The EU - the most docile world power there is, is pissed at you. It doesn't matter, of course, BJ plans to break this law. Legal action has already begun to force him to comply with a law passed by Parliament against his own government



The problem with the UK is that it wants to maintain all the benefits of EU membership - without playing by the rules that membership requires. That's what it boils down to - and those are the changes the UK basically wants. They want free access to Europe, without giving free access in return. The whole basis of the EU project is that people can shuffle around States as easily as they can in the US and live, work and pay their taxes wherever they please.

The Brexit 'deal' isn't even the actual treaty setting out the relationship between the UK and the EU - that's supposed to happen after they've left. It's nothing more than a patch - a sort of OK this is what we'll do for the first year or two while we figure out how to actually trade with each other and unwind decades of intertangled legislation type agreement. It was never expected to be this difficult.

The border with the North has to remain open - it's an obligation of the Good Friday agreement. Ireland will be stuck between EU law requiring a frontier at this point, and the GFA - but Ireland has already chosen the Single Market. Ireland has no choice but to choose the single market. That's the rules of being in the club. Being in the club means that even if the UK does crash out - our economy will still grow. There will still be food on the tables - just different brands - and we'll still be able to get computer parts cheap from Germany. New transport routed have opened direct to Spain and Belgium - they just take a day longer.

At every stage the United Kingdom has made the wrong move.

They called the referendum without even having a plan for loosing it. Or, for that matter any concept of what Brexit would be.
They triggered article 50 without having any idea how to actually go about it.
They triggered a general ellection at home and squandered a parliamentary majority which caused this deadlocxxk
They agreed a deal with the EU - after painful negotiation - without consulting the single-issue twits that their government depended on to govern.
They amended the deal with the EU - without even consulting members of the government.
The EU now expects the British Government to meet ithe obligations it agreed to. But it agreed to obligations it can't meet .
They have repeatedly negotiated in the worst and most untrostworthy faith, raising the spectre of Perfidious Albion once more.
They have quite possibly the worst electoral system in Europe that permits this sort of shittery to continue to happen on a minimum of a 35% 'majority' as if two thirds of the country voting against you grants you any sort of mandate.

[Dartz]

Shame On You!

Wow. That's special

[Dartz]

Annd Trrrrriiipppplleeee Posssst


Progrogging parliament ruled unlawful by Scottish court

It hasn't taken long for muttering to emerge from Downing Street that the Scottish Court was politically motivated. It's to go to the British court next Tuesday to be upheld which - if it is - will mean the prorogment of Parliament should be effectively nullified. This also contradicts a finding of an English court.

It is stated that the judges would not have found this unless there was overhwelming documentary evidence to that effect.

More amusingly, this would mean that Boris 'lied' to the Queen about his reasons for porgoring Parliament - although somehow I think the crone on the throne probably suspected as much - but somehow, according to drivetime radio, bring the monarch into politics is the ultimate sin for a Prime Minister and - if true - his resignation would be expected.

Prime Minister Rhees-Mogg anyone?

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Meanwhile, MP's have been taking their seats anyway to host a little sit-in. Avoiding the textual flatulence from the commenting twitterati is recommended. There is something deeply disturbing about a Government that is so obviously running and hiding from its Parliament. The opposition doesn't need an election to take control.

What's especially amusing is that this situation is handled specifically in the Irish constitution. If a Taoiseach has lost the confidence of the Dail it is a specific and absolutely discretionary power of the President to refuse to dissolve the Dail and permit the opposition to form a Government without another time-consuming general election.

It'll be interesting if the proroguement is cancelled. Because then it'll be the Opposition running the Government.

---


And of course, yesterday we have BJ coming to Dublin to try bash out a deal and then being marvelously upstaged by Taoiseach Varadkar (Who I still fucking hate). Like, one looks utterly cluelless and dishevelled and the other is calm, erudite and in control. It's somewhat Ironic that BJ looks more like a British stereotype of an Irishman than the Irish politician standing beside him making classical references to Heracles and Athena.

Of course, the tabloids took this as a 'Herculean task' while the actual reference was to Athena stoipping Heracles from murdering more than his wife and kids.

Anyway, lookie hear at the Guardian