Forget About Everything Else...

[SilverFang01]

It being possibly illegal outside specific circumstances may not be a deterrent anymore since Trump has shown he'll absolutely pardon American military personnel that commit war crimes.

[Matrix Dragon]

And the USA has had a long history of 'if we do it it's perfectly fine' when it comes to pulling stunts abroad.

[Dartz]

I'm trying to find it from somewhere that isn't twitter.

But did the Iraqi Prime Minister actually invite Suleiman to Iraq, in order to defuse tensions peacefully with Saudi-Arabia?

[Rajvik]

Gloating about it though... well. That's a good way to invite escalation. Especially when you do it in public, or on international television

Moot point when they are going to do it anyway. Seriously, understand their culture and you can see it. Persians, (which the Irainians are culturally) have for the last 3000 years absolutely had to be the biggest baddest assholes on the block or else have required being beaten down by a regime that was. Honestly Americans and them are not all that different in that aspect, the difference being that Americans recognize, because of history, that ultimately there will be someone out there that can do it, even if it takes a coalition of multiple people to do so. Until then we are the proverbial 800 kilo gorilla who will knock some sense into you when we feel like it. Iran doesn't have that sense of self preservation and thus requires having it beat into them every now and again. The last time it happened was actually the British who did it in the wake of WWI when they were dividing up the Ottoman Empire, if a British patrol came under attack the RAF would flatten the nearest village, and thus the local chieftains would sit on their hotheads whenever a British patrol would go through.

Iraqi's initially learned the same lesson about US Marines in a quicker, quieter and cleaner way, but the message was the same, if you wanted to keep breathing, you didn't fuck with the brown boots, Quite frankly its been past time Iran learned the same damn message.

[Dartz]

The Ottoman empire was a different creature entirely from Iran.

The Iranian conflict stems from a moment in time when the elected Iranian government wanted to add a levy to oil exports so that some of the money would go towards the economy. This would, of course, impact the profits of BP. So, the British and American Governments hatched a plot to replace the elected government of Iran with the Shah - which, of course, had some knock-on effects in the 70's that you might remember.

Iran doesn't have that sense of self preservation and thus requires having it beat into them every now and again

Oh.

What the fuck.

Maybe the US should just build a Death Star or something. Same basic idea.

[hazard]

It being possibly illegal outside specific circumstances may not be a deterrent anymore since Trump has shown he'll absolutely pardon American military personnel that commit war crimes.

Except that warcrimes are a matter of international law, and a pardon by the USA federal government may not be enough of a shield. Because while it's generally preferred for such cases to be tried by the nation those military personnel work for, if such trials do not happen it's entirely within the bounds of the treaties for any other belligerent or the UN to demand and arrange such trials.

After all, both Nuremberg and the various warcrime tribunals performed in The Hague set that precedent. Or did you think Yugoslavia or its relevant successor states were all that happy that key, high ranking military personnel were abducted from their borders to stand trial?

America being the proverbial 800 pound gorilla doesn't actually help here, not when it's not impossible the EU as a whole tell the USA to pound sand when it comes to putting people who are extremely unpopular in the USA on trial, and the USA decides it's not worth the effort to enforce them conducting the trials themselves, or force the UN and the EU to stop. It does require a certain degree of egregious violence on the part of the USA when engaging Iran though, if things come to blows.

[robkelk]

The Ottoman empire was a different creature entirely from Iran.

Yeah. Confusing Iran and the Ottoman Empire is like saying the USA has always been part of Canada - blatantly and obviously incorrect.

Iran doesn't have that sense of self preservation and thus requires having it beat into them every now and again

As they say on Wikipedia, citation needed. Iran (under its western-given name of Persia) is mentioned in the Bible. They know self-preservation.

After all, both Nuremberg and the various warcrime tribunals performed in The Hague set that precedent.

Ever since The Hague ruled against them in Nicaragua v. United States, the USA has refused to be bound by their judgments. Justice is for everybody except who the Americans screw over, apparently.

[SilverFang01]

It being possibly illegal outside specific circumstances may not be a deterrent anymore since Trump has shown he'll absolutely pardon American military personnel that commit war crimes.

Except that warcrimes are a matter of international law, and a pardon by the USA federal government may not be enough of a shield. Because while it's generally preferred for such cases to be tried by the nation those military personnel work for, if such trials do not happen it's entirely within the bounds of the treaties for any other belligerent or the UN to demand and arrange such trials.

After all, both Nuremberg and the various warcrime tribunals performed in The Hague set that precedent. Or did you think Yugoslavia or its relevant successor states were all that happy that key, high ranking military personnel were abducted from their borders to stand trial?

America being the proverbial 800 pound gorilla doesn't actually help here, not when it's not impossible the EU as a whole tell the USA to pound sand when it comes to putting people who are extremely unpopular in the USA on trial, and the USA decides it's not worth the effort to enforce them conducting the trials themselves, or force the UN and the EU to stop. It does require a certain degree of egregious violence on the part of the USA when engaging Iran though, if things come to blows.

In the good timeline, that would be the case, unfortunately the Bush administration passed the

The American Service-Members' Protection Act (ASPA, Title 2 of Pub.L. 107–206, H.R. 4775, 116 Stat. 820, enacted August 2, 2002) is a United States federal law that aims "to protect United States military personnel and other elected and appointed officials of the United States government against criminal prosecution by an international criminal court to which the United States is not party." Introduced by U.S. Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) and U.S. Representative Tom DeLay (R-TX)[1] it was an amendment to the 2002 Supplemental Appropriations Act for Further Recovery From and Response to Terrorist Attacks on the United States (H.R. 4775).[2] The bill was signed into law by U.S. President George W. Bush on August 2, 2002.

ASPA authorizes the U.S. president to use "all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any U.S. or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court". This authorization has led the act to be nicknamed the "Hague Invasion Act".[3][4]

And as far as I know, this piece of legislative stupidity has not been repealed. They may think of it as their “get out of jail free” card.

[SilverFang01]

And once again showing why you don’t do things without taking consequences into account:
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/05/793746580...eimani-str

[Rajvik]

Let me point something out to you Silverfang, Trump has been trying to GET US OUT OF IRAQ since he took office, mostly because once again we are not appreciated for the freedom we have delivered. Their Government approves of this and it's no skin off our nose, we'll take our troops, our equipment and COME HOME. I will assure you of something else though, by the end of Trump's second term they will be begging us to come back and help them, i promise.

[Dartz]

That's some proper doublethink there. There's a big difference between pulling out and getting kicked out. One is substantially less embarassing than the other.

[Matrix Dragon]

Ah, the 'this is all a cunning plan on Trump's part' claim. Deliberately target a foreign government official, start a war, all as part of a plan to get a third government to demand the US military withdraw from their country.

If Trump really wanted out of Iraq, he'd just order them to leave, like the last time he fucked over America's allies without warning.

[hazard]

Frankly, it's a good question if Iraq can enforce that demand on the USA if Trump decides to tell the troops to stay.

And that sure as hell would make tensions increase further.

[Labster]

Iraq will just have to declare the US Army illegal immigrants and deport them. They can build the wall, and Iran will pay for it.

[Dartz]

And now he's threatening the Iraqi's with ultra-sanctions if they try to kick US troops out, and demanding the pay for the air-base America buikt. Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats have quickly swept in....

So, that puts paid tothe idea that this is a cunning plan to GTFO of Iraq for sure.

[Black Aeronaut]

Shit just got even more real, folks.

He isn't going for just sanctions.

Why do something so mundane as sanctions when you can just send in the US Army to fuck everyone over?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-...SKBN1Z616W

[Matrix Dragon]

Let's be real. This will just be another round of the USA and its allies fucking over the middle east to justify absurd military spending. All actual terror attacks in the USA will be white supremacism assholes, which be ignored in favour of stirring up more fear of foreigners.

Meanwhile, we'll continue to burn down while our government spends our money on themselves and their rich friends in the coal industry, backed up by a media more than willing to cover for them.

Welcome to the future!

[robkelk]

Pompeo says that they want to actually avoid a war with Iran

The war has begun.

Because of your actions, our troops are now being shot at.

[Black Aeronaut]

Was about to come here just to mention that. Here's the report from ABC News:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ira...d=68130625

[Bob Schroeck]

I heard an interesting comment about the rocket attack on, of all things, the financial report this morning on WCBS News Radio out of New York City. Wall Street has its own military advisers and analysts (I guess because they decided they couldn't trust anything coming out of the government) and apparently the consensus among them is that the attack was deliberately aimed to fall short of killing any personnel as a kind of "de-escalating" response which was intended to simultaneously placate demands for retaliation from the Iranian people while not actually giving the US a valid excuse to return fire -- and making it look bad if it did.

[Bob Schroeck]

apparently the consensus among them is that the attack was deliberately aimed to fall short of killing any personnel as a kind of "de-escalating" response

Huh. Turns out they aren't the only ones.

[Dartz]

Excerpts from the press conference are on the radio. After the Carthago Delanda Est opening it sound very much like a child given the wooden spoon until he fucking apologises for spilling coffee.

That boy isn't happy at having to climb down.

[robkelk]

They aired the entire campaign speech press statement on CBC Radio, preempting normal programming.

He had to return to a point to mention that it wasn't just Americans on the bases that were under fire.

[Labster]

I've been avoiding posting anything substantive in this thread until we could figure out what the hell was going to happen.  And it looks like the incident is basically over after some posturing.  But there are some long-term consequences, all bad for the U.S.:

How the Trump administration saved the Islamic Republic

Pentagon: Letter Removing Troops From Iraq Was a “Mistake.” Iraq: No Takebacks.

Sure, Sulemani was a great strategist.  But real life is not Ender's Game, others will take his place.

[Black Aeronaut]

This isn't over yet.

The Senate just got their briefing, which basically amounted to the White House staff "trying" to "explain" why Trump did what he'd done.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congres...g-n1112596

The Republicans are PISSED.  (No word from Mitch McConnell yet, though...)

Here are some very telling highlights.

From the Republicans:

"It was probably the worst briefing I've seen at least on a military issue in the nine years I've served in the United States Senate," Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, said.

Lee said he left the briefing "somewhat unsatisfied" with the information given "outlining the legal, factual and moral justification for the attack."

"I find this insulting and demeaning," Lee added, saying that he now plans to vote in favor of a new war powers resolution from Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia. "That briefing changed my mind," Lee said.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., standing next to Lee, concurred, saying, "Today, this is Sen. Lee and I saying, we are not abdicating our duty."

And then this treatment of Sen. Coons of Delware by Pompeo at al, and Sen. Lee's comment on that juicy tidbit...

Lawmakers' frustrations in the briefing came to a head when Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., asked Pompeo when, if not during a situation like this, the administration thinks it needs Congress to authorize the use of military force, according to a Senate aide with knowledge of the briefing. The aide wasn’t authorized to discuss the classified briefing publicly and requested anonymity.

Pompeo and the other administration officials wouldn't directly answer the question. Instead, they responded by chiding the senators for harping on the issue and arguing that asking for authorization emboldens Iran. Their response set off both Democratic and Republican lawmakers who were in the room, the aide said, and the briefing ended soon after.

"They had to leave after 75 minutes while they’re in the process of telling us that we need to be good little boys and girls and run along and not debate this in public," Lee said. "I find that absolutely insane. I think it's unacceptable."

So yeah.

This has all the hallmarks Our Glorious Leader telling everyone to fuck off, he's gonna do what he wants, when he wants, cause he's got the big stick.

Of course, this means, as I said, that this isn't over yet.  He will continue to escalate the situation until someone can somehow remove him from office, be it by impeachment, or the Joint Chiefs declaring him temporarily unfit to lead.