2020 US election - The fat lady is warming up in the wings

[Jinx999]

If there was a tiger hiding under my bed, I'd be horrified. I'd flee the house, call the police (and canvince them I'm not crazy) and spend years worrying about how this could possibly have occured.

This does not mean I spend any time worrying about a tiger hiding under my bed.

[Labster]

A co-worker shared a sort-of joke with me this morning that I'm half-worried might end up a "ha ha only serious" kind of thing, speculating that if/when the courts do not give him the election for being a good boy, Trump's next step will be to go to the state governments to get the names of all voters registered Democrat so that he can have them sued/arrested for engaging in a conspiracy to deny him his rightful second term.  In any other year I'd call that obvious exaggeration, but Trump's just enough of an eogmaniacal lunatic that I can imagine him doing just such a thing.

The political parties already have all of this information.  I already have an electronic copy every voter record in my county, saved on a SQLite file on my hard drive.  It is really not hard to get this information at all, though keeping it up to date is a challenge.

Anyway, the recounts.  No American election has ever had the outcome change on a recount with a margin of over ten thousand.  There would have to be some sort of systematic error, like a voting machine malfunction (intentional or not).  So far, the statistics don't really show evidence for that.  There are biases in mail ballots versus in-person ballots, but we expected those after Trump made it an issue in the campaign.  By doing that, he made any patterns of systematic error or fraud harder to detect, because you can't use previous elections as a baseline.

That's a "why is the sky green?" question - it's possible to answer the question, but it's proceeding from a false premise.

I've seen green skies at sunset, it's pretty cool.  ★★★★★ Would recommend.

And in the meantime, the President-elect is not getting daily presidential briefings and his staff are not being allowed to take part in the transition activities that must take place before the country can be governed effectively, leaving the USA as a whole in a weakened position globally.

This is, to be frank, a non-issue.  Biden has already talked to foreign leaders; I'm sure if there was something he really needed to know Merkel or Johnson would have filled him in.  Biden has so much experience and so many contacts that he can put together a team without extra help from the government.  His campaign coffers are full, so he doesn't need the government budget.  He can safely ignore resistance from the White House for the next few weeks, except to send a few lawyers out where needed.

Honestly, I think Biden's team expected this to happen.  They seem to be going full steam ahead without waiting for transition offices.  If I were them, I would have made up lists of people to dismiss months if not years ago.

Now, I know that seems somewhere between a myth and joke at this point, and I hope it is too, I'd really hope the US electoral system is not a third-world country level of shoddy.

I've heard the comparison to hypothetical third-world countries a lot lately.  There are so many homeless on the street, and America is not a third-world country!  All of this voter fraud like a third-world country.  We can't get the coronavirus here, America is not a third-world country.  Look around you, people.  I see sectarian divisions, ethnic tensions escalating into violence, disputed elections, rampant viral epidemics, worsening pollution, people still trying to recover their livelihoods years after natural disasters, companies and billionaires that buy laws, and working people ending up homeless when they get sick.  If we're not a third-world country, then what on Earth are we?  Enough with the American exceptionalism!

[Bob Schroeck]

We used to be the First World country. Then we sat on our laurels for too long, assuming that once we were at the top the world would freeze in place and keep us there forever. Sorry, no. The rest of the First World have kept pushing the definition forward until we slid out of it, except for the amount of weight we can throw around.

[hazard]

The USA used to be the First World country because the First World used to be defined by 'America and palls'. If you compared it by standard of living, poverty rates and wellbeing of the population the USA has always lagged behind its palls, fueled in no small part by the sheer racism of the general public. But following the early years after WW2 and into the 70's the USA has in general had the sort of culture that said 'you know what, yes that happened, but we can at least try to be better now'. Not that it always succeeded, not that it was easy, but both the general public and political leadership realized that it was harming their nation and ridding themselves of it was the better option.

It's not that the USA sat on its laurels. It's that it gathered its laurels, crowned itself victor and has since both torched its laurel crown and consumed what gave it claim to the ancient symbol of victory.

[robkelk]

We used to be the First World country.  Then we sat on our laurels for too long, assuming that once we were at the top the world would freeze in place and keep us there forever.  Sorry, no.  The rest of the First World have kept pushing the definition forward until we slid out of it, except for the amount of weight we can throw around.

For example: Why are prisoners allowed to vote in South Africa but not in the UK?

When South Africa is more in line with the European Court of Human Rights than the USA is (and I'll point out right now that neither country is bound by the European Court of Human Rights), that's telling you something about human rights in the USA.

[Bob Schroeck]

It's another symptom of American Exceptionalism: "We're the best, so by definition whatever we do, in whatever way we chose to do it, is the best way and we don't need to improve."

[Jinx999]

Trump's latest tweet:

“REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.”

He's parted company with reality.

[hazard]

Hey, at least this is a good reason for the Republicans to start shouting about eliminating computer voting.

[Labster]

Ever since we discovered the Dominion on the other side of the wormhole, I haven't trusted them.

[robkelk]

How could Dominion do anything? Their employees have been on strike since August.

[Labster]

In the other thread, Beau of the Fifth Column noted that Biden has had a shadow State Department for months.  Too many officials for a campaign, but not if you're hiring the people you need to hire to run foreign policy on your own.  The New York Times reported that in addition to administration officials not being allowed to talk to the Biden folks, Biden has issued an edict that his own people cannot talk to people in the administration -- even through back-channels.  They are, however, expected to talk to people who left the government.  Observations:

1. Biden has been planning for this specific situation of a no-help transition for a long time
   
2. Biden's team doesn't actually need the administration's help (although the secure phone lines would be nice)
   
3. Biden's team doesn't want to chance talking to current officials, probably to negate the risk of intentional misinformation and to keep "leakers" from getting needlessly terminated.
   

I wouldn't put high hopes on the opening of diplomatic relations between the two parties any time soon. But when people on TV tell you to worry about this, just remember that Biden isn't worried, so why should we be?

[LynnInDenver]

It's clear Biden knows what's up, and is proceeding from the assumption that they won't get any cooperation in the transition, and while it will mean there will be issues when they start the real work on January 20, at least it won't be because they didn't make an effort to be absolutely as ready as they can be, and any problems they can well and truly pin directly on Trump stonewalling the process.

[hazard]

It does mean a return to the Spoils political system, where a new president sweeps the government clear of the senior administrators assigned by the previous government and installs their own.

[GethN7]

Since I seem to be in the position of devil's advocate at times, I'm going to propose a counter-argument to "Biden is preparing for the worst since Trump is cutting him out of transition help".

Trump is conceding absolutely nothing because he's convinced Biden is not the legit winner and he will be the legit winner once all the fraud, if any, is winnowed out. That's the obvious part.

The not so obvious part is that even if Trump thought he stood a reasonable chance of being overturned and cast out for Biden, he has no good reason to even humor Biden, it would be a tacit admission of defeat to even bother, and Trump of all people is not going to do that. Further, Trump is far from the only president who left their successor high and dry.

Woodrow Wilson's administration left Harding nothing to work with. Hoover stiffed FDR the same way. Essentially, Trump being an ass and not conceding Biden anything on transition is not unique, crosses party lines, and has been done before by equally spiteful people on both sides of the aisle.

Finally, because honesty demands it, Biden has not actually "won" yet. Until the electors make their final call, Biden is just shuffling deck chairs on the hypothetical ship of state until the electors make their actual votes. Whether that ship will float with Biden as captain or is the Titanic and Biden sinks before getting a chance will be decided when the electors vote and not before.

[robkelk]

Reuters: Biden wins Arizona

The Register: Election security fears doused with reality: Top officials say Nov 3 'was the most secure in American history.'

CBC analysis: Why Trump's 4-front attack on U.S. election result is almost certain to fail

CBC: Could Trump pardon himself before he leaves office? Your U.S. election questions answered

• Can a U.S. president pardon him- or herself?
  
• Could the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the election results?
  
• What happens if you die after casting your ballot? ("There's 51 sets of rules")
  
• Do electors have to vote with the popular vote?
  

[GethN7]

Reuters: Biden wins Arizona

The Register: Election security fears doused with reality: Top officials say Nov 3 'was the most secure in American history.'

CBC analysis: Why Trump's 4-front attack on U.S. election result is almost certain to fail

CBC: Could Trump pardon himself before he leaves office? Your U.S. election questions answered

• Can a U.S. president pardon him- or herself?
  
• Could the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the election results?
  
• What happens if you die after casting your ballot? ("There's 51 sets of rules")
  
• Do electors have to vote with the popular vote?
  

I have a few rebuttals to this

1. What crimes has the man committed. I mean, things that could be PROVEN. If he was guilty of anything else besides being a prick and being the guy people didn't want in the White House, he'd be indicted by now. Four years of trying all sorts of things to nail him for something have resulted in nothing.

2. That second question is misleading. At best, they can determine if the process for the election followed the law. It's the states who will have the final call via the electors (modified to account for how the court rules of course) that makes the final call.

3. This is downright cute in its attempts to pretend Trump is full of crap. Yes, there are rules for a vote to still count if you recently died in some states. My grandfather passed a few months before the 2016 election and voted early because he knew he was dying and it was still valid under the rules of the state he voted in. There is a clear difference between that and someone who has been dead for over 200 years somehow casting a ballot, let's not pretend there isn't. Whether anyone was dumb enough to try that will be decided in the recounts.

4. Short version, no. Faithless electors are a thing, but that rarely occurs and generally would not be enough to sway things unless you get absurdly large numbers of them to defect.

My point here is to be the realist. The media can say whatever they like and quote whoever they like, they do NOT coronate the new president, the electors do, and we won't know that until they actually vote. Either man winning is fine, I'll accept that, but the media can only pretend Biden is the official winner until then.

[RMH999]

This is a new one on me... Trump lawsuit to stop PA vote certification with a promise of the evidence will be submitted in a later lawsuit

I may be old fashioned, but I thought you were supposed to have the evidence (or what you believe is evidence) when you submit the lawsuit rather than "we promise we really really really will have some in the future..."

[classicdrogn]

Well, you might have noticed Florida Man's lawsuits getting thrown out of court left and right... lack of legal merit is looking to be par for the course, and we all know how fond the cheeto is of golfing.

[robkelk]

Reuters: Biden wins Arizona

The Register: Election security fears doused with reality: Top officials say Nov 3 'was the most secure in American history.'

CBC analysis: Why Trump's 4-front attack on U.S. election result is almost certain to fail

CBC: Could Trump pardon himself before he leaves office? Your U.S. election questions answered

• Can a U.S. president pardon him- or herself?
  
• Could the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the election results?
  
• What happens if you die after casting your ballot? ("There's 51 sets of rules")
  
• Do electors have to vote with the popular vote?
  

I have a few rebuttals to this

1. What crimes has the man committed. I mean, things that could be PROVEN. If he was guilty of anything else besides being a prick and being the guy people didn't want in the White House, he'd be indicted by now. Four years of trying all sorts of things to nail him for something have resulted in nothing.

2. That second question is misleading. At best, they can determine if the process for the election followed the law. It's the states who will have the final call via the electors (modified to account for how the court rules of course) that makes the final call.

3. This is downright cute in its attempts to pretend Trump is full of crap. Yes, there are rules for a vote to still count if you recently died in some states. My grandfather passed a few months before the 2016 election and voted early because he knew he was dying and it was still valid under the rules of the state he voted in. There is a clear difference between that and someone who has been dead for over 200 years somehow casting a ballot, let's not pretend there isn't. Whether anyone was dumb enough to try that will be decided in the recounts.

4. Short version, no. Faithless electors are a thing, but that rarely occurs and generally would not be enough to sway things unless you get absurdly large numbers of them to defect.

My point here is to be the realist. The media can say whatever they like and quote whoever they like, they do NOT coronate the new president, the electors do, and we won't know that until they actually vote. Either man winning is fine, I'll accept that, but the media can only pretend Biden is the official winner until then.

Geth, did you read the article, or are you just going from the headlines?

1. The Department of Justice has a policy that a sitting President is never indicted for anything - they say that it's up to the House of Representatives to indict him. And they did. It isn't their fault that his political buddies in the Senate declined to look at the evidence.

2. Your comment here tells me that you didn't read the article.

3. The article doesn't mention either party in its question or answer. You're projecting your bias onto the headline.

4. Your comment here tells me that you didn't read the article.

And I find your use of "coronate" disturbing. Didn't your people fight a war of rebellion to get out from under someone who was coronated, and swear you'd never submit to such a person again?

[GethN7]

Reuters: Biden wins Arizona

The Register: Election security fears doused with reality: Top officials say Nov 3 'was the most secure in American history.'

CBC analysis: Why Trump's 4-front attack on U.S. election result is almost certain to fail

CBC: Could Trump pardon himself before he leaves office? Your U.S. election questions answered

• Can a U.S. president pardon him- or herself?
  
• Could the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the election results?
  
• What happens if you die after casting your ballot? ("There's 51 sets of rules")
  
• Do electors have to vote with the popular vote?
  

I have a few rebuttals to this

1. What crimes has the man committed. I mean, things that could be PROVEN. If he was guilty of anything else besides being a prick and being the guy people didn't want in the White House, he'd be indicted by now. Four years of trying all sorts of things to nail him for something have resulted in nothing.

2. That second question is misleading. At best, they can determine if the process for the election followed the law. It's the states who will have the final call via the electors (modified to account for how the court rules of course) that makes the final call.

3. This is downright cute in its attempts to pretend Trump is full of crap. Yes, there are rules for a vote to still count if you recently died in some states. My grandfather passed a few months before the 2016 election and voted early because he knew he was dying and it was still valid under the rules of the state he voted in. There is a clear difference between that and someone who has been dead for over 200 years somehow casting a ballot, let's not pretend there isn't. Whether anyone was dumb enough to try that will be decided in the recounts.

4. Short version, no. Faithless electors are a thing, but that rarely occurs and generally would not be enough to sway things unless you get absurdly large numbers of them to defect.

My point here is to be the realist. The media can say whatever they like and quote whoever they like, they do NOT coronate the new president, the electors do, and we won't know that until they actually vote. Either man winning is fine, I'll accept that, but the media can only pretend Biden is the official winner until then.

Geth, did you read the article, or are you just going from the headlines?

1. The Department of Justice has a policy that a sitting President is never indicted for anything - they say that it's up to the House of Representatives to indict him. And they did. It isn't their fault that his political buddies in the Senate declined to look at the evidence.

2. Your comment here tells me that you didn't read the article.

3. The article doesn't mention either party in its question or answer. You're projecting your bias onto the headline.

4. Your comment here tells me that you didn't read the article.

And I find your use of "coronate" disturbing. Didn't your people fight a war of rebellion to get out from under someone who was coronated, and swear you'd never submit to such a person again?

Fair points on 1 and 3.

1. Their impeachment died on the table. However it happened, it did. Unless they got something better to bring to the table, he's home free on impeachable offenses.

3. True, but I never mentioned parties either save to point out the article in question is clearly biased against Trump in its assertions. Whether anyone cheated has yet to be determined, hence my wait and see approach, and their casual dismissal out of hand with a vague reference to varying state rules is in itself vague at least and dismissive at worst.

As to the other two, I did read it. and I stand by my answers.

As for use of the term coronate, Biden is NOT the legitimate president YET until the electors confirm him. The media wants to pretend he's already won, but legally, he hasn't. Trump is legally president until his term is up and Biden begins to execute the duties of the office. Given this matter is in dispute, I don't want to be stupid enough to call Biden president in the event he turns out not to be.

If Trump is full of crap and frog-marched out of the White House no matter what, so be it, but until he's no longer legally President, no one else deserves to call themselves such until it's confirmed and they legally execute the duties of the office.

[robkelk]

Let's cut to the chase.

... As for use of the term coronate, Biden is NOT the legitimate president YET until the electors confirm him. ...

... Faithless electors are a thing, but that rarely occurs and generally would not be enough to sway things unless you get absurdly large numbers of them to defect. ...

So by your own reasoning Biden's got the Electoral College votes to win... unless there's a court case somewhere that will actually change the results of who is chosen for the Electoral College depending on how the court case is decided.

I am not aware of any such case - everything that I am aware of will not make a difference in who wins each state. If you're aware of a case that will make a difference, please let us know what it is.

Until such a case is brought to my attention, I see no reason to stop saying that Biden won.

[GethN7]

Let's cut to the chase.

... As for use of the term coronate, Biden is NOT the legitimate president YET until the electors confirm him. ...

... Faithless electors are a thing, but that rarely occurs and generally would not be enough to sway things unless you get absurdly large numbers of them to defect. ...

So by your own reasoning Biden's got the Electoral College votes to win... unless there's a court case somewhere that will actually change the results of who is chosen for the Electoral College depending on how the court case is decided.

I am not aware of any such case - everything that I am aware of will not make a difference in who wins each state. If you're aware of a case that will make a difference, please let us know what it is.

Until such a case is brought to my attention, I see no reason to stop saying that Biden won.

Your call, Rob. Legally, Trump is still the legitimate President until the electors say otherwise. I'm doubtful Trump can pull a large enough rabbit out of the hat to have a second term, but until I know for sure if he pulls it off by some heretofore unknown means, I prefer prudence over premature victory dancing. Once Biden is confirmed US President for real, I shall refer to him by the title of said office.

[hazard]

Your call, Rob. Legally, Trump is still the legitimate President until the electors say otherwise. I'm doubtful Trump can pull a large enough rabbit out of the hat to have a second term, but until I know for sure if he pulls it off by some heretofore unknown means, I prefer prudence over premature victory dancing. Once Biden is confirmed US President for real, I shall refer to him by the title of said office.

No, Trump's the legitimate president until noon of January 21st, Washington DC time, not counting his resignation, death or ousting in any manner.

At that time, the president elected by the electoral college in December becomes the president of the United States. This may or not be Biden, this may or may not be Trump sworn in for a second term, and this may even be neither of those two and instead be a third person so long as that person is a valid candidate according to the Constitution of the United States.

[GethN7]

Your call, Rob. Legally, Trump is still the legitimate President until the electors say otherwise. I'm doubtful Trump can pull a large enough rabbit out of the hat to have a second term, but until I know for sure if he pulls it off by some heretofore unknown means, I prefer prudence over premature victory dancing. Once Biden is confirmed US President for real, I shall refer to him by the title of said office.

No, Trump's the legitimate president until noon of January 21st, Washington DC time, not counting his resignation, death or ousting in any manner.

At that time, the president elected by the electoral college in December becomes the president of the United States. This may or not be Biden, this may or may not be Trump sworn in for a second term, and this may even be neither of those two and instead be a third person so long as that person is a valid candidate according to the Constitution of the United States.

point duly noted.

[Dartz]

This seems more like an excersise in pedantry than anything substantive.

Unless something particularly fucky happens against the grain of the vote and society, it's fairly like Biden is the next President.

I've never seen so many people this fucking happy about an illegitimate election win before.

These lawsuits aren't meant to win. They're just the smoke machine so someone can claim there's a fire. I've seen this shit done before by the same sort of people on this side of the pond. It's not meant to succeed, it's meant to play to the donors. Irish Catholic concervative groups do it all the fucking time to soak of those sweet American dollars.