2020 US election - The fat lady is warming up in the wings

[GethN7]

Let's calm down a bit.

My concerns are primarily with individual actors from the Alt Right.

By and large, I think our faith in the democratic (not the party) process hasn't been moved, due in large part to how smoothly election day went, and how unflappable and unshaken the count process has been, demands for recounts aside.

The process is working, folks.  There is strong evidence of this.  Our primary concern should be what the Alt Right intends to do once all of Trump's legal avenues have been exhausted.

I'm concerned with what BOTH extremes are likely to do.

If Biden wins, I hope and pray some dinguses on the right don't unironically advocate for an ironic role reversal American Civil War 2.0. If he wins, I hope they realize they need to sit down, shut up, and if they are really convinced the election was stolen, and the court system did not agree, then they lost. In that case, lose with some dignity.

If Trump wins, I hope the same for the left. This is not the first election to have contested results hashed out in court, we have a court system for this, and thus far it seems to be doing what it's supposed to. If the end result is something half the country doesn't like, they just need to be the better people and live with it. Any fool on either side who insists on violence in response to election results they don't like after all legal avenues have been exhausted is someone who deserves imprisonment or, if they resist with lethal force, death for posing a danger to a society of law.

And I hope it does not come to that for anyone for BOTH sides.

[robkelk]

I'm going to juggle a couple of words there, just to keep a neutral point of view...

If Trump wins, I hope and pray some dinguses on the left don't unironically advocate for an ironic role reversal American Civil War 2.0. If he wins, I hope they realize they need to sit down, shut up, and if they are really convinced the election was stolen, and the court system did not agree, then they lost. In that case, lose with some dignity.

If Biden wins, I hope the same for the right. This is not the first election to have contested results hashed out in court, we have a court system for this, and thus far it seems to be doing what it's supposed to. If the end result is something half the country doesn't like, they just need to be the better people and live with it. Any fool on either side who insists on violence in response to election results they don't like after all legal avenues have been exhausted is someone who deserves imprisonment or, if they resist with lethal force, death for posing a danger to a society of law.

[Jinx999]

If Trump wins, I hope and pray some dinguses on the left don't unironically advocate for an ironic role reversal American Civil War 2.0. If he wins, I hope they realize they need to sit down, shut up, and if they are really convinced the election was stolen, and the court system did not agree, then they lost. In that case, lose with some dignity.

Given the success of his court cases (1 out of ~30, which was overturned on appeal) and ability to find any evidence of fraud that's strong enough to pursuade a judge (none), I can't imagine there's any path to a Trump victory that wouldn't be . . . extreemely suspicious.

Trump's morning tweets were much more coherent than yesterday's, for what it's worth. Rudy's the one making wild claims at the moment.

He's either nuts or trying to stir up shit to try and get the (Republican) state governments to invalidate the popular vote and select republican electors instead. Which would be interesting in the chinese sense. And this year has already been interesting enough.

(But seriously, reporters. His hair dye is NOT a story.)

[SilverFang01]

[robkelk]

Reuters: Republican state official says Georgia recount confirms Biden's victory

Which means, unless there are faithless electors this year, it's done. Biden wins.

All we're waiting on now is the Senate results from Georgia... which we won't know until January.

[Jinx999]

Trump's options are, as far as I can tell, now:

1) Concede with ill grace, claiming that he only lost because the Democrats were dirty cheaters.

2) Continue to make claims that he is going to win the legal battle any moment now.

3) Openly ask Republican dominated state governments to ignore the "obviously wrong" popular vote and appoint electors themselves.

4) Ask his supporters to "defend democracy" by force. I'd be much less worried about this if he didn't seem to believe that he genuinely has the support of the majority of the country, including the gun owners, police and military.

1) is the only sensible option, but he's not shown much signs that he will be sensible so far.
2) is a delaying action.
3) is a challenge to democracy. If the state governments go along with it, it would pretty much destroy America.
4) is still vanishingly unlikely, but it scares me that I cannot completely rule it out. I can't imagine the generally very honorable and professional US military going along with it, but it would still be a hell of a mess.

[GethN7]

Trump's options are, as far as I can tell, now:

1) Concede with ill grace, claiming that he only lost because the Democrats were dirty cheaters.

2) Continue to make claims that he is going to win the legal battle any moment now.

3) Openly ask Republican dominated state governments to ignore the "obviously wrong" popular vote and appoint electors themselves.

4) Ask his supporters to "defend democracy" by force. I'd be much less worried about this if he didn't seem to believe that he genuinely has the support of the majority of the country, including the gun owners, police and military.

1) is the only sensible option, but he's not shown much signs that he will be sensible so far.
2) is a delaying action.
3) is a challenge to democracy. If the state governments go along with it, it would pretty much destroy America.
4) is still vanishingly unlikely, but it scares me that I cannot completely rule it out. I can't imagine the generally very honorable and professional US military going along with it, but it would still be a hell of a mess.

Let's have a little balance here:

1. Is certainly most plausible as the best way out in the case of a loss, I'll grant you that.

2. Kinda unfair to hold this against him, he's Donald Trump. Asking him to concede on something like this is getting angry he dares to breathe air.

3. Trump could ASK, yes, but the states have to decide that on their own. When the Founders wrote the Constitution, they had to extend a huge concession to the states to get them on board, and in exchange for accepting the supremacy of the federal government, they were given the final say HOW they chose electors, and the third option remains their right at any time. It would be a dick move if the people were decidedly against it, but entirely legal inside the representative democratic framework the states accepted.

4. You can rule this out. Remember, the Republican position is that the OTHER side is trying to pull a coup. If Option 4 happened, any illusion of having what Republicans consider the moral high ground disappears. Besides, from the regular military, while Trump is the Commander in Chief, even he cannot give them the order to incite unrest nor act inside the US without the consent of Congress. Foreign deployment and cases of clear emergency (like disaster relief) are some of the very few exceptions, but Trump cannot lawfully order the US Armed Forces to enforce a military junta out of sheer spite. As for civilian unrest, I cannot be as sure, but I seriously doubt all but the most extremeish fringe is going to consider that time to start Civil War 2.

[nemonowan]

You should write 2) like:

"Continue to make claims that he is going to win the legal battle and continue to solicit donations to finance said legal battle but that in the small print say that they actually go to pay his campaign debt"

And it is absolutely certain that he will keep this up as long as he has followers to fleece.

[Jinx999]

4 is something I only seem as possible if Trump genuinely believes what he and his "lawyers" been saying, that he has the support of the vast majority of the country and his rightful victory has been nefariously stolen away by a sinister conspiracy organised by a laundry list of left wing bogeymen.

Yes, I know it requires him to be telling the truth (as he perceives it).....

[robkelk]

Trump's options are, as far as I can tell, now:

1) Concede with ill grace, claiming that he only lost because the Democrats were dirty cheaters.

2) Continue to make claims that he is going to win the legal battle any moment now.

3) Openly ask Republican dominated state governments to ignore the "obviously wrong" popular vote and appoint electors themselves.

4) Ask his supporters to "defend democracy" by force. I'd be much less worried about this if he didn't seem to believe that he genuinely has the support of the majority of the country, including the gun owners, police and military.

1) is the only sensible option, but he's not shown much signs that he will be sensible so far.
2) is a delaying action.
3) is a challenge to democracy. If the state governments go along with it, it would pretty much destroy America.
4) is still vanishingly unlikely, but it scares me that I cannot completely rule it out. I can't imagine the generally very honorable and professional US military going along with it, but it would still be a hell of a mess.

AP says he's chosen option 3.

The president personally called two county canvass board officials earlier this week who had refused to certify the results in Wayne County, the state's most populous county and one that overwhelmingly favoured Biden. The two Republican officials eventually agreed to certify the results, but following Trump's call, they later said they had second thoughts.

[robkelk]

AP: After meeting Trump, Michigan Republicans say there are no new details that change state's vote

[GethN7]

AP: After meeting Trump, Michigan Republicans say there are no new details that change state's vote

I know I come off as the Trump sympathizer here, and I don't deny it true to some extent, but I'll be blunt:

I'm getting tired of this constant back and forth vote contesting. I just hope we get a clear victor declared soon, and frankly, so long as it's done legally, I don't care who wins.

[robkelk]

AP: After meeting Trump, Michigan Republicans say there are no new details that change state's vote

I know I come off as the Trump sympathizer here, and I don't deny it true to some extent, but I'll be blunt:

I'm getting tired of this constant back and forth vote contesting. I just hope we get a clear victor declared soon, and frankly, so long as it's done legally, I don't care who wins.

There's only one person doing any vote contesting now. I hope it'll stop once he's out of the Oval Office - you have more important things to worry about.

EDIT: Oh, yes...

Reuters: U.S. federal judge throws out Trump bid to stop Pennsylvania vote certification.

The sooner he admits to himself that not everybody loves him, the sooner he can be a man and concede the blatantly-obvious.

[Labster]

You're living inside the Trump bubble where a clear winner hasn't already been declared.  Biden is the winner of the election according to Fox News, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, NBC, CBS, ABC, Reuters, the Associated Press -- all declared two weeks ago, today.  The only major holdout is the GSA, the Government Services Agency.

Suppose Trump is somehow right and both Michigan and Pennsylvania actually voted for him.  Biden still wins.  As it stands, Biden's vote totals include six million people more than Trump had.  The most any candidate for President has ever received.  It's not even close.

But hey, as long as the election continues, Trump can still keep asking for his people to give him money. Get that sweet, sweet, campaign cash to do whatever they want with it.

[GethN7]

You're living inside the Trump bubble where a clear winner hasn't already been declared.  Biden is the winner of the election according to Fox News, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, NBC, CBS, ABC, Reuters, the Associated Press -- all declared two weeks ago, today.  The only major holdout is the GSA, the Government Services Agency.

Suppose Trump is somehow right and both Michigan and Pennsylvania actually voted for him.  Biden still wins.  As it stands, Biden's vote totals include six million people more than Trump had.  The most any candidate for President has ever received.  It's not even close.

More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.

Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.

[nocarename]

More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.

Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.

What counts as a clear winner being declared here? Is it a public Trump concession or would something else work in place of that?

[GethN7]

More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.

Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.

What counts as a clear winner being declared here? Is it a public Trump concession or would something else work in place of that?

All the legal crap put to bed and a legally affirmed winner (as determined by the Supreme Court, as they'll likely have to hash this out eventually). Hayes had to have part of his trip to the Oval Office signed off on by them too.

[robkelk]

More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.

Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.

What counts as a clear winner being declared here? Is it a public Trump concession or would something else work in place of that?

All the legal crap put to bed and a legally affirmed winner (as determined by the Supreme Court, as they'll likely have to hash this out eventually). Hayes had to have part of his trip to the Oval Office signed off on by them too.

Which means not until the swearing-in ceremony, and maybe not even then.


The rest of us are going by who has the largest number of delegates pledged to them at the Electoral College.

[GethN7]

More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.

Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.

What counts as a clear winner being declared here? Is it a public Trump concession or would something else work in place of that?

All the legal crap put to bed and a legally affirmed winner (as determined by the Supreme Court, as they'll likely have to hash this out eventually). Hayes had to have part of his trip to the Oval Office signed off on by them too.

Which means not until the swearing-in ceremony, and maybe not even then.


The rest of us are going by who has the largest number of delegates pledged to them at the Electoral College.

And that brings me back to my point. Hayes only won because the contest votes in 1876 elections were awarded to him. On paper, Tilden otherwise won the electoral vote.

I'm a student of history, and the legal precedents of the US mean the APPARENT EC superiority Biden has may not be the deciding factor unless it is legally affirmed he got them legit. If the courts side with him, Trump would legally be screwed and Biden the winner, and since Trump is willing to take it that far, that means if the SC sides with Biden, Trump is out of ammo, but not before then.

THAT is why I'm hedging my bets. Granted, I admit Trump's chances of an SC reversal are not that great (and that is being generous), but then again, Hayes was almost boned until he got the surprise overturn that pushed him over the top instead of Tilden.

[nocarename]

I'll check back in January 7th then.

[Jinx999]

Given the current voting counts, a backroom or heavily Trump appointed supreme courtroom deal that puts Trump back in the White House would be seen as blatantly anti-democratic.

Trump is an . . . incredibly divisive figure.

Given his past history and recent tweets, I see the chance of a winning Trump recognising that his claim to the oval office is incredibly slim and that he should work as a healer, not a divider is . . . incredibly slim.

I'd very much prefer not to see the US government do something that would destroy America.

[Bob Schroeck]

Well. On a related topic, Trump's accusations of fraud have been so thoroughly convincing to his followers that there is now a movement on right-wing Twitter alternative Parler for Trump loyalists to boycott the Georgia Senate run-off election on the grounds that it's "obviously" rigged, so why bother? Mitch McConnell is now stuck in the untenable position of both supporting Trump's claims of massive vote fraud and telling his own base that no, of course the election isn't rigged at all, go out and vote, we need you.

On Parler, a Pro-Trump Call For Georgia Runoff Boycott Threatens Mitch McConnell's Plan to Restrain Biden

[robkelk]

Is American democracy suffering from an overload of politics?

An independent election authority, a non-politicized judiciary and a non-partisan media might all be pillars Americans could cling to to keep from being sucked deeper into a vortex of mistrust and dysfunction.

But there are no such handholds, say experts — since the bodies that administer elections, the media that report on them and even the judges that may ultimately decide them are now all associated with one party or the other. So are the prosecutors who might bring charges in cases of malfeasance or fraud.

So the U.S., with nine times Canada's population, has nearly 250 times as much election money sloshing around.

[GethN7]

Well.  On a related topic, Trump's accusations of fraud have been so thoroughly convincing to his followers that there is now a movement on right-wing Twitter alternative Parler for Trump loyalists to boycott the Georgia Senate run-off election on the grounds that it's "obviously" rigged, so why bother?  Mitch McConnell is now stuck in the untenable position of both supporting Trump's claims of massive vote fraud and telling his own base that no, of course the election isn't rigged at all, go out and vote, we need you.

On Parler, a Pro-Trump Call For Georgia Runoff Boycott Threatens Mitch McConnell's Plan to Restrain Biden

Now that is asinine. If you are convinced dead bodies were voting for the enemy, it makes only perfect sense to respond to that by outnumbering them with LIVING voters. If they are going to flounce simply because they think every vote is rigged (and that's idiotic), then those guys are fools.

[Bob Schroeck]

.... No, on second thought I'm not going to go for the obvious joke there.