Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[Dartz]

Day 24 and the first draft of history continues.


--There's new fighting outside Kherson. Ukraine is making its best effort at retaking the city
--There's fighting in the centre of Mariupol. Russia is trying to take what's left of the city
--130 Survivors have been found under the rubble of a destroyed theatre
--Russia has been releasing more videos of its forces in Hostomel on Day 1. Have they nothing else?
--More Bayraktar videos have been released - of artillery obliterating white dots. Missiles obliterating white dots.
--Fighting in Kharkiv has apparently quietened down.
--Fighting in the east is beginning to heat up.
--The gates of Russian Embassy in Praque has been splashed with Red Paint
--The EU has stated it has evidence China is planning to provide military support to Russia. Warns of consequences
--Chinese propaganda seems to be pivoting towards showing the consequences of Russia's attack
--Chinese Citizens: "Weren't we at war with Eurasia a week ago?"
--China may have suggested a role it could play in ending the war - but it's not clear what's happening.
--Puitin appears by videolink at stadium - which cuts out halfway through
--It is now a crime in Russia to criticise any State Body acting abroad
--Burger King would like to pull out of Russia but can't - it doesn't own enough of it's local subsidiary
--Russia may block Youtube. Russians will no longer have any distraction from the bullshit around them
--Russia issuing warnings about transferring S-300 missile systems to Ukraine.
--Helicopter with 'Onward to Berlin' on it runs out of fuel and crashes
--Unrealistic intent meets cold reality
--Moscow stock exchange might rip the band-aid off on Monday. Implosion in 3, 2, 1
--Ukraine claims to have killed the leader of the 8th army, and a number of generals, by shelling a command compound
--Russia has been sending its big hats to the frontline to shore up morale
--G7, NATO and EU summits next week - enough for a small mountain range
--America is making moves to cut the last few trade-links with Russia
--Macron still talks with Russia.
--The big knobs are gathering round to figure out how to yank the iron out of the fire
--Lads from Louth who supposedly went to Ukraine, and were suspected of being in Wicklow to the point that their Gofundme was cut off - have turned up actually in Ukraine
--Irish Reddit feels utterly stupid.
--Russian Cosmonauts arrive at ISS wearing yellow and blue spacesuits. Many in Roscosmos may be rebelling

---

[Labster]

-- Russians fortifying their siege positions outside Kyiv, showing first sign of competence so far this war
-- Ukraine claims to have killed another Russian general today
-- Putin gives speech celebrating 8 years of "liberation" in Crimea
-- Video feed mysteriously cuts out in the middle of the speech
-- Later, footage of Putin leaving the stage is definitely not a stunt double
-- Speaking of asshole Presidents, Trump releases plan for peace in Ukraine: US should "put the Chinese flag" on F-22 fighter jets and "bomb the s**t" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it. Then they start fighting with each other, and we sit back and watch."
-- And then his Republican audience laughed.  And laughed.
-- Area man running for President suggests false flag attack against nuclear powers as "joke"
-- Professional comedian: "They are killing our civilians, please give us a no fly zone" -- Zelensky
-- What we are doing here is called black comedy.  What Trump thinks are jokes are basically just bullying.  But that's not news.
-- Also not news: Axios story about US funding for a long-term resistance movement in Ukraine has been declared false by basically everyone who could have known about the letter
-- New Russian cosmonauts arrive on ISS wearing yellow and blue spacesuits.  "We had a lot of yellow fabric left over."  Sure, that's plausibly deniable.
-- Russian foreign minister Lavrov says Fox News is doing a good job
-- David Cameron driving truck full of food to refugees in Poland.  He must feel guilty because it's kind of his fault there aren't enough lorry drivers.
-- Thousands of attendees at pro-war rally in Moscow seem apathetic to war, at best.
-- Russia passive-aggressively threatens to attack Bosnia if it joins NATO
-- US immigration system remains sufficiently broken that we've only taken 600 refugees from Ukraine.  Prognosis for progress: bleak.
-- Moldova and Ukraine join European electricity grid and are now in phase.
-- Climatologist Protip: If you want to fight for Ukraine against Russia, use less energy and fuel.  When you do use energy, shift as much as possible to daylight hours to effectively use solar and wind.

[robkelk]

The more things change, the more they stay the same...

Propaganda from the Russo-Japanese War (specifically 1904) showing Russia as an all-consuming monster:



(Larger copy available on Wikimedia Commons)

Note who's willing to take up arms, who's turning their backs on the situation... and who's already fallen.


EDIT:

Since I seem to recall some of the younger folks have trouble reading script writing, here's a transcription - spelling errors and all - of the text in the upper-left corner of the image.

'Black Octpus' is a name newly given to Russia by a certain prominent Englishman. For the black octpus is so avaricious, that he stretches out his eight arms in all directions, and seizes up every thing that comes within his reach. But as it sometimes happens he gets wounded seriously even by a small fish, owing to his too much covetousness. Indeed, a Japanese proverb says: "great avarice is like unselfishness." We Japanese need not to say much on the cause of the present war. Suffice it to say, that the further existence of the Black Octpus will depend entirely on how he comes out of this war. The Japanese fleet has already practically annihilated Russia's naval power in the Orient. The Japanese army is about to win a signal victory over Russia in Corea and Manchuria. And when ............... St. Petersburg? Wait & see! The ugly Black Octpus! Hurrah! Hurrah! for Japan.
March, 1904. Kisaburo Ohara.

Heh - "We Japanese need not to say much on the cause of the present war." That's because the Japanese fired the first shot in that war. Granted, both sides thought they had casus belli.

[robkelk]

-- New Russian cosmonauts arrive on ISS wearing yellow and blue spacesuits.  "We had a lot of yellow fabric left over."  Sure, that's plausibly deniable.

"We personally choose our flightsuit colours months in advance, so they can be made and packed in time for launch. Thus I suspect the blue and yellow wasn’t intended as a political statement, but I like that it is." - Chris Hadfield, on Twitter, 7:53 AM, March 19, 2022

[Dartz]

Day 24 - again

--Russia now saying it'll react if Bosnia moves towards NATO - same as it reacted against Ukraine
--The one-note tune continues to play
--Ukraine seems to be having success on counter-attacks
--Belarus may finally be about to join the match. They got people in red armbands
--And their ambassador left Ukraine
--They'll be like that person on a group project who actively makes things worse -- worse than the person who does nothing.
--German has supposedly been delinquent on sending the ,military aid it promised Ukraine
--Well Actually - they've only failed to send one particular kind of launcher that's been in the arsenal since the DDR was a thing
--Japan is pressuring India to take a side. Prefereably the right one
--China is - still making up it's mind. Condemining the US with one hand, saying the situation can't go on with the other, and leaving it's arse-cheeks fairly on either side of the fence.
--Some madlad supposedly shot down a Tochka missile with a Stinger. Internet: 'WTF?'
--If you don't know it's not supposed to do that, you're doing to try and see what it does, I guess.
--Putin is pulling troops from the far east to Belarus. Some are going by boat - the long way
--Trustworthy source -- Russia has lost over 1600 vehicles. >200 tanks
--Potentially untrustworthy source -- Russian casualties may be over 13,000
--Is it normal for this many generals to get killed, as well?
--Russia is using long range guided missiles to hit static Ukrainian targets. They cannot hit mobile items
--Have hit a maintenance hanger, and a barracks - killing at least a hundred soldiers
--Multiple NATO nations - including sensible Denmark - now in favour of Peacekeeping in Ukraine
--Someone called Hannity is quoting Kremlin sources to attack President Biden.
--And Russian Foreign Minister speaking Highley of Fox News in the States
--I thought they banned all the Russian-supported networks?
--An maintainer for an Open Source project slips a little code into the project to put a file on the user's desktop if they're in Belarus or Russia
--Is criticised by the FOSS community for it and may have caused on hell of an unintentional blowback
--Western thermal imaging is making it to Ukraine. Even publically sold items are better than Russian military equipment
--Random anecdote about using the FLIR in my work van. Customer: 'What's that hot thing?' Me: 'Probably a rat'
--Old historical photos - Putin looks like a fascist - while Zalensky looks fabulous
--Russia's trolls are more focused on the BRICS countries - as they may sit on the fence.
--BoJo says West Must not normalise relations with Russia. Stopped clock being right twice a day and all that
--Then goes on to liken Ukraine to Brexit. Over the integral of the entire fucking day, it's still a broken fucking clock.
--Britain has donated a convoy of fire engines to Ukraine
--Lukashenko reassures world Putin in better shape than ever
--Lukashenko probably keenly aware he's likely to be dancing Danny Deevers jig underneath a lampost five minutes after Putin regime ends
--Meanwhile, in Russia, panic-buying has lead to the return of nostalgia for Perestroika and it's long cues
--Old Soviet joke. A man walks into a shop and asks, do you have any meat? No, this is a Fishmongers, we don't have any fish. The butcher down the street doesn't have any meat
--This time, it's over sugar
--Putin wears a E13,000 jacket that looks like something I could get in Pennys for 0.1% of the price
--There's evidence that video of Putin's appearrance in a stadium yesterday copied from en event 2 years ago
--Anti-Russian sentiment now reaching Freedom Fries level of stupidity when Yuri Gagarin gets cancelled
--Russian forces are still grinding forward in Mariupol, to complete the Crimea/East Ukrain link.
--Ukraine is counter-attacking nearly everywhere else
--Russian military pockets run around like headless chickens in response, with no coordination
--Russia is pressing any man of military age in the Donbass into the fight.
--Russia's sole remaining strategic capability seems to be the ability to keep feeding meat into the machinery in the hopes it finally gums up and runs out of ammunition.
--I can't tell if 10% casualties is a lot, or just 'damaged' or what have you. I don't know enough about war. I suppose if you knew any in the 10% you'd consider it a lot.
--Is it just me, or are modern tanks just expensive 3-man coffins? They do nothing but explode
----EDIT - and a post that appearred while I was doing this. Residents of Mariupol being shipped to camps, and then deported to distant parts of Russia
--Did I just read about Concentration Camps?


----

[Labster]

--Well Actually - they've only failed to send one particular kind of launcher that's been in the arsenal since the DDR was a thing

I'm reading that as Dance Dance Revolution which still seems comically outdated.

--Russia is using long range guided missiles to hit static Ukrainian targets. They cannot hit mobile items

Russia is well-prepared to fight WWI again.

--And Russian Foreign Minister speaking Highley of Fox News in the States
--I thought they banned all the Russian-supported networks?

We have freedom of speech as a constitutional right, so we can't ban them (unless we really want to, but it took six years to force Father Coughlin off the radio).  What we can do is make it difficult for people to get financing.  RT America was killed because it lost distribution contracts that funded it, and sanctions stopped money to replace it.  

--Is it just me, or are modern tanks just expensive 3-man coffins? They do nothing but explode

They can also be abandoned in back gardens or run out of petrol in the streets.

----EDIT - and a post that appearred while I was doing this. Residents of Mariupol being shipped to camps, and then deported to distant parts of Russia
--Did I just read about Concentration Camps?
----

I just read a twitter thread from a freelance journalist that I'll reproduce in full below:

Something I've noticed over the past week or so here: almost every Ukrainian I spoke to has made it clear that they blame not only Putin, but the average Russian as much (or more) for this war. The view is: we overthrew our corrupt government, and they accept their murderous one.
The amount of animosity from the average Ukrainian towards the average Russian is already huge and growing more with every single new airstrike, every new civilian death. The effects of this war will last for generations.
And I'm saying this from Kharkiv. I think I saw more virulently anti-Russian views here than anywhere else in the country. The sense of betrayal here, of 'how could they possibly do this to *us*', is incredible.
The people we watched crawl out of the rubble today told us their relatives in Moscow didn't believe them. Videos of their destroyed home were met with 'it's a fake' or 'Nazis did it.' *Every* bond between Ukrainians & Russians - familial, cultural, historical - is being broken.
Honestly Kharkiv is crazy. Everything from the center going northwards, just street after street is blown out. Every street littered with glass and burned-out cars and broken buildings.

[hazard]

10% casualties is generally considered as 'combat strength severely if not completely degraded'. Not to say that combat can't continue, but formations with this many casualties need an extensive amount of time to reconstruct themselves, and may just stop fighting at all.

[classicdrogn]

--Some madlad supposedly shot down a Tochka missile with a Stinger. Internet: 'WTF?'
--If you don't know it's not supposed to do that, you're doing to try and see what it does, I guess.

I wonder if they wrote "Babushka's Tomatoes" on the side first?

[robkelk]

-- Zelensky speaks to UK Parliament: We will fight them on the beaches, in the trenches, with the drones
-- Zelensky speaks to US Congress: I have a dream!  A dream my country will stop being attacked for their ethnicity
-- Zelensky speaks to Germany: Don't let them build a wall across Europe!

Here's an analysis of one of the speeches Zelensky gave ... that you missed including on your list.

[Dartz]

Day 25--

I'm thinking about stopping on Friday. 30 days in. The story isn't really changing from the first few posts.

--So, it looks like Putin and Minister Shoygu are planning to send 13-17 year olds to the Front now. An organisation called the Young Army Cadets is being sent to the frontline.
--The fall of Mariupol is now, effectively, inevitable. At best, it's a Pyrrhic victory for Russia
--The Azov batallion in Mariupol are popping T72 tanks with 30mm autocannons by shooting a specific fuel tank
--On the other side of the fuel tank would've been the tanks crew - who probably found the experience somewhat distressing.
--They may have learned how to do this by playing War Thunder where the same trick works.
--For the random unfortunate historian who happens to blunder into this shit and thinks it's a valid researched account, War Thunder is a game where facsimiles of vehicles are simulated to have modules like fuel and ammo in approximately the right place so they blow up 'right' when shot rather than just deplete hit-points and die.
--For the random college instructor who may see this cited - give that student a fucking zero.
--In Kherson farmers are out ploughing anyway, with Ukrainian flags flying from their tractors
--Daily protest rallies are ongoing, but food and supplies are getting thin on the ground.
--Guardian article where I got the above from -- We know who our heroes and traitors are.
--Speaking of traitors, A Ukrainian Admiral who defected with half the Ukrainian fleet in 2014, may be dead.
--Impartial international experts (ISW) have now judged the Russian campaign as 'failed'
--The 'correct' move now would be to stop, regroup and re-organise and hopefully get some fucking cop-on and go home
--Russia continues to fling troops and equipment at objectives without really thinking about it.
--Russia claims to have used an advanced hypersonic missile to destroy an ammo dump
--They launched a ballistic missile from an aircraft, and destroyed a shed on a pig-farm. That'd previously been blown up.
--Russian troops are digging foxholes beside roads to dig in for a long fight
--They've done it so wrong, it has been pointed out by those who understand such things, that they are basically digging their own graves.
--A school with potentially 400 sheltering in it got bombed
--Russia is (A few days ago) warning about false-flags where hospitals have been rigged to explode when they fly their aircraft innocently over them.
--A tank found destroyed was fitted with a unique 1980's prototype active-defense system. It was, maybe, a one-off. They're digging anything that moves out at this point.
--This is now close to entering a Stalemate phase where nothing happens but the casualty count increases.
--Ukraine is supposedly good at keeping its shit safe and wrecking Russia's shit
--Russia still has a lot of shit to expend pointlessly.
--They're not so much imploding like Nazi Germany - but sort of overreaching and deflating.
--Deputy Director of Rosgvardia has been detained by the GRU.
--There're rumours that some may try to replace Putin - either with Shoygu, or with the Mayor of Moscow
--Any replacement of Putin results in a dead Putin - he's too dangerous to leave alive.
--Russian foreign minister digs his heals in - the world order is changing. (And he's not wrong....)
--Meanwhile, In Belarus, railworkers have supposedly destroyed the tracks leading from Belarus to Ukraine - forcing any invasion to rely on trucked supplies
--Russian army built for rail, rather than road. And road convoys are getting picked off. If they don't break down first.
--Belarus *still* hasn't invaded. They've been humming and hawwing over it for two weeks now
--Kazakhistan's president has passed reforms. Powers are passed from the President, to the Parliament. Someone has seen which way the wind is blowing. Borat jokes likely remain a capital offence.
--Australia is pushing the sanctions button, blocking exports of Alumina ore to Russia, and feeding military aid to Ukraine
--Poland is calling on the EU to enact a total trade ban with Russia
--China is still really in two minds. The Chinese people are bordering on drinking Russian news, or wondering if they're next when Russia deflates like a Souffle. To them, this is very much Russia -v- America.
--India and China aren't really doing anything - either out of a hesitancy to get involved in Western Imperialism, or not wanting to make enemies.
--Russia tries to sell gold. Nobody buys it
--Volunteers for Ukraines' foreign legion annoyed that they aren't being immediately flung into the front lines. Or that modern war doesn't match the romanticism of the International Brigades.
--Ukraine can afford to be picky, and has asked for experienced soldiers only
--10 million people have now been displaced in Ukraine and a humanitarian crisis is building.
--The Irish government is trying to arrange an address by Zalensky to the Dail - all the 'cool' countries are doing it
--Zalensky's ability to tailor the message to the tropes of whatever country he's speaking to is remarkable
--There is still a strong information bias in favour of Ukraine
--But, it is clearly important that weapons supplies and military aid are kept up - especially anti-tank munitions
--Unsubstantiated Rumour - US Special forces may already be on the ground in Ukraine.



------

[robkelk]

--There're rumours that some may try to replace Putin - either with Shoygu, or with the Mayor of Moscow
--Any replacement of Putin results in a dead Putin - he's too dangerous to leave alive.

Putin is ex-KGB - he knows the methods how "inconvenient" Russians die, and I'm willing to bet real money that he's taken precautions against every one of the usual methods and most of the unusual ones.

[Dartz]

--There're rumours that some may try to replace Putin - either with Shoygu, or with the Mayor of Moscow
--Any replacement of Putin results in a dead Putin - he's too dangerous to leave alive.

Putin is ex-KGB - he knows the methods how "inconvenient" Russians die, and I'm willing to bet real money that he's taken precautions against every one of the usual methods and most of the unusual ones.

Oh yeah - quite a few are getting arrested. He's already supposedly replaced a lot of his staff - and just look at how distant he's sitting from everyone when he's photographed with his ministers?


Oh, and Linda Thomas - US Ambassador to the UN - has stated that other NATO countries may want to send troops into Ukraine and, while the US doesn't want to send troops in, it will support them.

Oooh boy.

------

[Labster]

It only takes one mistake, though. Security is hard when you have to do it all day long. Just look at poor Franz Ferdinand’s final day. (Though if anything is evidence of time travelers mucking up the timeline, it’s the events of that day.)

Anyway the Praetorian Guard was involved in a lot of deaths of emperors. Just because everyone knew that didn’t stop it from happening again.

Hospitals are so explosive. Must be the oxygen tanks, couldn’t be Russian bombs because that would be a war crime.

[Dartz]

Ah Shit.

Russia just basically told all 130,000 people still in Mariupol to evacuate - before it's army deals with the Nationalists and Bandits.

And Russian State television is blathering on about Thermobaric Weapons and Tactical Nuclear Weapons and shit.


This thing's dithering between all will be fine and --- We shall fight in the sunshine. They're just trying to play the 'unpredictable loon' card, it seems.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Putin removing his staff...

[Norgarth]

Kyiv Calling (Ukranian cover of London Calling)



and a small article from Reuters about the band/song
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...K2gNfg9EZE

[Labster]

-- Boogaloo Boi rejected from Ukrainian army for being useless drama queen, posts dramatic "escape" video from Ukraine
-- Russian cadets are being sent to the front lines, aged 18 and 17.
-- Four week long shift at Chernobyl ends; staff rotates
-- Russia demands surrender of Mariupol by dawn today, which of course did not happen.
-- Turkey maintains good relations with both sides, but also notes Russia should leave Ukraine, including Crimea.
-- Zelensky regrets not being a member of NATO
-- But seriously we can't do it now, you can't move a nuclear red line into an active war zone for fuck's sake.
-- Russian anti-war activists' homes are being defaced with the letter Z grafittied
-- Russian tanks being defaced with Ukranian flags and driven into battle
-- Ammonia leak at shelled Ukranian chemical factory now under control
-- China says it will be remembered as being on the right side of history with respect to Ukraine
-- They will get back to us when they figure out which side that is.
-- Ukraine government bans 11 political parties tied to Russia.  Most have no seats, but one is the largest opposition party in parliament with 10% of the seats.  Third, fourth, and fifth largest parties unaffected.  The ban expires when martial law does.
-- I don't feel great about this, but I can also see the point of not having quislings in government.
-- A list of Ukraine war terminology, so you folks can understand what we mean when talk about the letter "Z", or say "Slava Ukraini!" or "the owls are not what they seem."

Recommended reading: Ur-Fascism by Umberto Eco goes through all of the elements of what makes up fascism.  In terms we often use around here, fascism is something of a genre, and fascists have particular tropes that are common to the genre.  They do not need to exhibit all tropes to be fascist bastards.  In modern Russia, I see elements 1, low but increasingly 3, 4, 5, a whole lot of 7 and 8, shades of 9, probably 10, 11, and 12. (out of 14 total).  This is probably one of the easiest to understand works of Eco's, and includes his own experience growing up in fascist Italy.

[Dartz]

-Day 26 of World War III


--The Ukraine War is no longer front page news here. It's place has been taken by a recent murder
--Covid 19 also still exists -- remember that? It's snuck back into the papers too
--Pro-Russian tabloud has admitted to ~10k casualties, with ~16k wounded. That seems like a lot
--To add perspective - that's the Imperial German losses in 1 Day at the Somme. WW1 be brutal.
--Actual figure may be nearly 18,000 dead - including Wagner group.
--If that's what they're admitting to, one Ukrainian Redditors pre-war prediction that the Russian economy will be propped up by coffin makers for years to come is ringing darkly true.
--Coffin makers may be all that's left of the Russian economy in a short while. The stock exchange opened a crack to sell some bonds and not much else.
--Russia has issued an ominous deadline to Mariupol. Surrender before 5am, or anyone left in the city will be treated as a bandit before a military tribunal.
--Squads are already searching the city with a List of Names. Two AP journalists narrowly escape
--Ukraine has not surrendered. The city remains a warzone. Exactly what follows is unknown - but after 14 hours it may be a bluff.
--Russian meanwhile, continues to warn of a humanitarian catastrophe
--Which they are causing. (Some good wifebeater logic there)
--Allegedly it is continuing to fire on evacuation busses
--Also making noises about missiles it has already fired having longer range, and being capable of being fitted with 'other types' of warheads.
--America has issued a somewhat less ominous sounding reminder - while it won't be putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, it won't prevent any other NATO members from doing so.
--And it will 'back' them.
--US is still not sure who Russian commander in the field is.
--Russians still not sure who Russian commander in the field is. (You can't leak what you don't know!)
--France has found 22 Billion belonging to Russia in its banks and applied the Freeze to it.
--Oh, and also called for a total block on Trade
--If I want that Vostok Scuba-Dude I better be quick. (Russian watches are actually one of the better things with the Made In Russia tag)
--Economic war may actually be more deadly than conventional war, once the starving begins. It's a war without destruction - but not without casulaties.
--Moscow: President Biden threatens rupture of ties with Moscow
--US: Fears Russia will build Concentration camps.
--Ukrainian foreign Minister: Get your finger out China and do something
--China, while insisting it's on the right side of history, *still* hasn't figured out what side that is.
--The Middle-East is being it's usual hypergolic self - where the Iran deal doesn't go well with the Saudis, who also know well what happens if they piss America off too much
--Russia's propaganda machine has obviously given up on the West and is now targeting India, China and other Fence-sitters - where it may be more effective - even at keeping them on the Fence
--Most of the world would rather not be involved - Keeping this in the 'European Bullshit Again' bucket suits them.
--Even the US - is leaving it very much up to the EU to decide whether this is to remain the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or become the Baltic Peacekeeping Action, or the European Large scale special forward defense operation.
--EU is making noises to form a small quick-reaction force of its own, probably based around the Bundeswehr.
--Speaking of Fence-sitters, Lukashenko is still dithering on whether to Shit or get off the bloody pot. Belarus has pulled back from its border, again.
--The refugee crisis from Ukraine, is probably the same sort of refugee crisis that happens in any conflict zone. People jump to the nearest safe country. It's just that in the EU, it's a lot easier to get to the other end of the continent from that point, and the response is a lot more coordinated.
--The crisis is happening 'in' Europe, rather than 'somewhere far away' where only a few people make it here.
--Duterte in the Phillipines: I'm friends with Putin, but he went overboard. I only kill drug dealers
--Russia now outlaws Bankruptcy.
--This is like the economic version of outlawing death
--Elvira Nabiullina has attempted to resign as head of the central bank Twice. This is old news
--Ukraine has lost 500 vehicles, compared to Russia's 1700 - by one trustworthy measure
--Walter-Mitty types joining the war to be Internet Famous are providing a propaganda coup for Russia
--Ukraine is vetting joiners for web-presence, and prior history of being survivalist nut-jobs.
--Modern German weaponry has been photographed at the front line.
--Ancient Russian T-72's have also been captured at the front-line.
--And brand new, dedicated electronic attack vehicles. Because why the fuck not.
--Interesting historical tidbit - a Russian Navy captain may have invented the concept of electronic attack in 1905, when he requested permission to transmit at a higher power than the Japanese naval ships reporting their position to drown them out.
--Admiral Rozhestvensky denied him permission to do so. The result was the Battle of Tsushima. Plus ca change....
--Somebody utterly obliterated a Loaf van. Those things are cute. One of the other nice things Russia makes. (Fite me)
--Ukraine claims to have retaken Makariv, north of Kyiv
--Ukrainian partisans are torching trucks in Occupied Ukraine
--On list of countries providing military aid to Ukraine - Ireland, Sweden and Finland
--Ireland provides fuel, medical supplies and military clothing - not much (They probably lost the batteries for the missiles), but very much sticking the head out of the 'neutral' hole and onto the louder side of global politics.
--You can't be neutral about a fire in your neighbour's house. Or if your neighbour is an arsonist.

-----

[Labster]

In a way, I feel sorry for Lukashenko.  It has to be obvious to him that Russia is going to lose, and putting his own army in increases the chance of being overthrown.  But without Russian support, it increases his risk of being overthrown.  The optimal path for him remaining a petty dictator is probably exactly what he is doing: assist Russia in the slowest, most incompetent way possible.  This will work as long as Russia is distracted, which probably means "long enough".  Meanwhile, he can help his army "get organized" by playing Tropico and wishing he was dictator of somewhere warmer and less invadable.

Americans: Remember back when we were afraid of the Russian Army?

[robkelk]

Americans: Remember back when we were afraid of the Russian Army?

Now you've got me worried that any ICBMs they might launch at you would fall on us, eh?

[classicdrogn]

At this point there's no question that endemic corruption has crippled the Russian military even more than the worst previous estimates, but I doubt it would be enough to leave all their missiles grounded, and just one successfully reaching ... well, pretty much anywhere, or at least anywhere claimed by a NATO member, would be enough to give everyone a Very Bad Day. Or "succeeding" by way of failing short there when intended to hit somewhere else. At that point Russia would very likely lose badly, but no one would win.

[Dartz]

Global mass vitrification event would be the term.

It's unlikely.


They won't launch on NATO first, unless the Russian state itself is in danger so that leaves a show of force against Ukraine to utterly shock them out of the war. I mean, then you get into Russia launches a nuclear weapon and it goes off - you have a crime on a scale not seen in 80 years and uncharted territory. Because how do you even drop the sanction hammer on that.

Or what's almost worse. Russia launches a nuclear weapon and it fails to go off and just goes 'donk' into the ground outside a school.

And suddenly, the entire Russian nuclear is suspect. Not only have they launched a nuclear attack - their nuclear attack has failed. So they get the consequences of pushing the button - and the consequences of the button misfiring.

They're not going to do it

[Labster]

The point of building the shitload of missiles is to guarantee that you can launch a second strike, which is really only there to prevent the first strike.  I have serious doubts about the Russian ability to carry out a second strike -- especially right now, with half its forces committed to an uncoordinated invasion.  The idea is that you expect not all of your missiles will make it, due to being destroyed prior to launch, or in-flight.  So you overbuild.  Russia overbuilt a lot, but how many of those missiles really actually work?  Is it enough to penetrate American air defense?  Are there enough people to launch them in time?  Would you count on Russian subs being hidden from American overtechnology?  Would you see Russia's military coordination as being able to complete a first strike before Americans launched a full-force second strike?

[Dartz]

Nuclear war was based on some very specific assumptions. They kind of knew how it'd go

You push the button when your existance is under threat - that's basically it. There's the red-line where - when you feel you have no other option, where you're about to be annihilated by the enemy, you push the button in the hopes they get the message and stop. And you kinda hope they realise you have the button, so they don't drive you to the point where you might need to use it.

So instead of directly attacking each other they sort of bump and grind and use proxies and spin stories to change the level of acceptable conduct without actually attacking each other.


So NATO goes into Belarus and picks up a few casualties but they've no reason to launch because they're not under existential threat. Russia - in theory - isn't under existential threat from a war in Ukraine - so it has no reason to launch beyond sheer bloody overkill - or trying to pull a Hiroshima and terror-bomb Ukraine out of the fight.

But Ukraine isn't under the nuclear umbrella. That begins at NATO borders.

[Labster]

All of that depends on the red line being credible. There are two types of credibility: willingness to enforce red lines, and ability to enforce red lines. India or China could not join NATO, because no one realty believes that the US and France will risk nuclear war to protect them. I’m doubting the other part: Russia may not have the military capacity to enforce its red lines. It probably does, but a 20% chance to the contrary is odds a lot of people would take. Mutually likely destruction is quite a different game than mutually assured destruction, mainly because politicians are bad at statistics.