Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Dartz]

I went to a show tonight and when the doors opened in looked like Wagner and Prigozhin were about to skewer the Moscow regime and install something even more evil and fascist.

I left the show, glad to have at least seen one last Iron Maiden gig before the world ended --- only to find that Prigo' got cold feet and backed down at the last possible second as history's dampest squib fails to fire.

So he made a deal which Russia basically went lolnope on the moment he stopped his advance.

What the fuck even was this?

When you take a shot at the king you either hit or you're fucked - there's no take backs on that.

[classicdrogn]

If there's any conclusion to draw, it's that yes, Russia really would have been fucked if he continued in the short term, even if trying to push a coup to a true conclusion would have been a phyrric victory at best. Deal or not, I fully expect Prigozhin will come down with a mysterious case of heavy metal poisoning ere long.

Also, mandatory: "Iron Maiden? EXCELLENT!" (air guitar)

[Jinx999]

I'm sure you'd be shocked to hear this, but apparently the Russian government is not, in fact, dismissing the criminal case.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

The only question is why Prigozhin didn't realise this would happen.

[Dartz]

It's a Matryoshka of clownshoes.

One clownshoe inside the other, inside the other. It's clownshoes all the way down.

[classicdrogn]

I wanted to just post the video for TATU's "Clowns," but having watched it first because posting things without that can cause problems... well, it could, in certain circumstances, cause problems. Beware! Not one, but TWO bare boobs may be glimpsed for half a second each! Also, cute Russian lesbians kissing in a fake-movie-rain downpour.

So if your work or S.O. is particularly strict, you have been warned!

Link only, as it's probably age restricted and blocked from embedding on other sites than YouTube anyway.

For everyone else Stuck In The Middle With U(kraine) here's a different ditty

link
So should that be "Putin to the left of me, Wagner to the right" or the other way around?

[classicdrogn]

"Public service announcement from the French Bureau of Commerce: It is not a coup unless it originates from the Coup region of France. What you have experienced is merely a Moscow Mutiny. Please continue to protect our trademarks. Merci!"

source

[Labster]

What a fun little mess that was, and it's too bad it wasn't a bigger mess for Muscovy.  It was such a short coup that it didn't seem to have any affect on the front lines, where the counteroffensive is still progressing.  Prigozhin himself escaped with the help of his long-time buddy in Belarus, Lukashenko, and only a handful of folks were killed.

One thing that happens is that this really weakens Putin.  Living in a country that had a coup attempt a couple years back, the obvious thing is that it's kind of embarrassing for the government.  But America has deep wells of legitimacy because it's a republic, and Russia just doesn't.  The biggest thing of being a strongman is appearing strong, which Putin now doesn't.  We had a coup where no one cared to join it, but also no one cared to stop for nearly 1000km trek up towards Moscow.  That state security force just didn't show up at all.  And worst of all, Putin's vassal Lukashenko got to take credit for saving Russia.

-- Wagners are now no longer allowed to operate in Ukraine
-- With departure of Wagners, Russian Army is now the world's second strongest army in Ukraine
-- Russia declares "backsies" on agreement not to prosecute Prigozhin
-- Russian Army General Sergei Surovikin allegedly knew of Prigozhin's coup plans, has not been seen in public for the past week
-- Search parties out looking for him below tall buildings and bridges
-- FSO finally shows up, and begins a purge of the Russian Army top brass, which will definitely hamper their war efforts
-- Lukashenko boasts of how much he helped, how no one in Russia could do anything to stop it, but he stepped in and saved Russia single-handedly.
-- Putin is viewing those boasts as a personal humiliation
-- Russian propagandists not quite sure what they can say about the whole affair
-- Putin makes an actual appearance in public to meet with real people, which says how bad this whole thing got
-- Russian ambassador calls Australia ‘vindictive’ after dead possum thrown over embassy fence
-- Russian missiles kill eleven in a pizza parlor in Kramatorsk
-- Wagner PMC is getting a free, formerly-abandoned military base in Belarus
-- Russian state tries to assert control over Wagner forces in Africa
-- I really think Lukashenko is using Wagner and Prigozhin as a way to keep more independence from Russia, or as a bargaining chip in the worst case.
-- At Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, 5 reactors are in cold shutdown, and one is in warm shutdown.
-- Honestly after the dam incident, do you honestly believe that Russia won't blow this up too?  Almost every time they make a decision, they make the wrong one.
-- Hungary delays vote on Sweden in NATO again, after another group of morons burn a Koran in Sweden
-- Orban in Hungary says that Ukraine has no claim to sovereignty after taking Western weapons, and considering its history it's basically a part of Russia
-- Hungary has no claim to sovereignty, and considering its history it's basically a part of Austria
-- Ukraine will not hold elections until an armistice is in place, which makes sense when the enemy likes to target gatherings of civilians
-- The counteroffensive is still going.  Defensive positions are being captured.  These things tend to go slow, then collapse all at once.

Meanwhile, in an alternate universe:

[Dartz]

I have only two words.

Mobiks Cube.

If you know. You know.

If you don't know

Spoiler

Western armies ship their ammunition by the pallet, and their dead by the box. The Russian army is the exact opposite of this.


Stacked. Pressed. Neatly Wrapped in plastic and abandoned in a little village in Belgorod where they fell from the back of the truck.

Edit:

So the Mobik's Cube might actually just be offall from a local slaughterhouse.

Most of it's just turned a colour that looks like a meaty military mashup - greens and blues and the like. But when you actually zoom into the damn thing - far closer than any sane person would g - it's just cowparts and cardboard.

[Labster]

It's looking like Russia is getting ready to explode the Zaprorizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Because after the dam, why wouldn't they?

Modern nuclear reactors are pretty safe, encased in shells to protect them from outside attacks and keep nuclear byproducts inside. None of this matters, however, if you've had months to set up explosives inside the building. It's a like a modern equivalent of scorching the earth to prevent enemies from advancing through a flank -- except it's also a way to make most other countries hate Russia for generations. "Why can't we go there, Dad?" "Well, son, it's because a hundred years ago some Russians wanted to win a war that they ended up losing anyway, so they polluted the land forever."

[hazard]

NATO has rather bluntly stated that if Russia where to cause a breach NATO will intervene, but it's uncertain how much that would deter Russia. Or encourage them.

Russia has been running on highly questionable logic for a good long while now.

[classicdrogn]

If anything, I'd expect the Russian logic to go "If we can make it look like Ukraine is responsible for a nuclear disaster, those stupid degenerate NATO pig-dogs will intervene on our behalf!"

Putin's version of logic, I mean, and possibly his immediate advisors. I expect the ones who remain are all well aware that saying "No, that is bad idea" is the kind of career move only senior advisors confident in their ability to fly make.

[Labster]

NATO has rather bluntly stated that if Russia where to cause a breach NATO will intervene, but it's uncertain how much that would deter Russia. Or encourage them.

Russia has been running on highly questionable logic for a good long while now.

One pretty obvious problem in international relations is that actors tend to assume that other countries will make decisions similar to the way they do.  Examples include "Iraqis will greet us a liberators", pre-WWII appeasement, and whatever the heck that peace deal Britain was trying to make with Germany before the first world war.  Sometimes it works positively, like when Vietnam became the first country to close its borders because of the coronavirus, because as a fellow communist state they knew exactly what their northern neighbor was trying to hide.  It's a fundamental problem, because you can't predict your rival if you don't have a theory of mind for how they act.

Bellicose rhetoric without intent to actually fight NATO is what Russia has been doing for a long time.  They're just assuming that we're the same -- that we'll never risk nuclear war, because we secretly fear them while stating in public how strong we are.  They're assuming that because America struggled in Afghanistan, they are the same with their struggles in Ukraine.  I think they will blow the plant because Putin's cabal doesn't have the theory of mind to understand American actions, and they don't want to hear from people who do.

If anything, I'd expect the Russian logic to go "If we can make it look like Ukraine is responsible for a nuclear disaster, those stupid degenerate NATO pig-dogs will intervene on our behalf!"
Putin's version of logic, I mean, and possibly his immediate advisors. I expect the ones who remain are all well aware that saying "No, that is bad idea" is the kind of career move only senior advisors confident in their ability to fly make.

Literally no one is thinking this in government.  You don't help your geopolitical rivals go to war against your allies, period.  You don't even help them unless you think you're getting the better deal.

[classicdrogn]

That's true. It would be much easier if they were actually dirt-stupid. That's why actual idiots don't get to that level of power.

Usually.

Except for Donald.

Lightning couldn't strike twice like that though...

Right?

[robkelk]

Except for Donald.

Lightning couldn't strike twice like that though...

Right?

US News and World Report ranks His Orangeness as the second-worst President, behind James Buchanan.

And that's just US leaders.

So, no, lightning can strike twice like that, or more...

[robkelk]

-- Wagners are now no longer allowed to operate in Ukraine
-- With departure of Wagners, Russian Army is now the world's second strongest army in Ukraine
-- Russia declares "backsies" on agreement not to prosecute Prigozhin
-- Russian Army General Sergei Surovikin allegedly knew of Prigozhin's coup plans, has not been seen in public for the past week
-- Search parties out looking for him below tall buildings and bridges
-- FSO finally shows up, and begins a purge of the Russian Army top brass, which will definitely hamper their war efforts
-- Lukashenko boasts of how much he helped, how no one in Russia could do anything to stop it, but he stepped in and saved Russia single-handedly.
-- Putin is viewing those boasts as a personal humiliation
-- Russian propagandists not quite sure what they can say about the whole affair
...
-- Wagner PMC is getting a free, formerly-abandoned military base in Belarus
-- Russian state tries to assert control over Wagner forces in Africa
-- I really think Lukashenko is using Wagner and Prigozhin as a way to keep more independence from Russia, or as a bargaining chip in the worst case.

To the surprise of practically nobody, the deal appears to be off.

Wagner chief who defied Putin is currently in Russia, according to Belarus president

[robkelk]

On Day 500 of this three-day war, CBC Radio's The House devotes the entire episode to the state of the conflict. Set aside an hour to listen to the show.

[Labster]

We're at Day 500, and likely in what will be the hardest phase of the war for Ukraine.  They're attacking dug-in Russian positions while the Russians still have enough war materiel to pose a real threat.

-- The United States will provide Ukraine with cluster bombs, which are really highly effective against trenches
-- Virgin EU countries complain about Chad America giving out these munitions, which tend to leave UXO behind for the next decade/century to find
-- Russia is already using these, and it seems like Ukraine is willing to take out this debt in lives to save more lives now
-- An area the size of Florida has been landmined by Russia in Ukraine.  Six Belgiums worth of territory has been mined, so there's going to be tons of UXO for generations anyway.
-- Cluster munitions can be used to clear minefields.  Just saying.
-- Drone footage of Bahkmut -- This is how livable a city is after Russia takes it.  Also you apparently can still fly drones behind enemy lines.
-- Tara Reade, who accused Biden of sexual assault, will apply for Russian citizenship
-- Russia doesn't have a backup plan when it runs out of artillery - a long military nerdish article on how Russia is running out of artillery
-- TL;DR they don't have enough shells/mortars of the most common sizes, they don't have enough uncommon models to make a difference, and they gave up their ability to make high-grade steel for barrels and can no longer import from Germany.
-- Moscow has lost at least 2,098 tanks during the invastion and for the first time, Kyiv could actually have more. 
-- ‘We couldn’t wait’: Ukrainian farmers improvise to clear their land of mines - what starts out as a "feel-good" story about ranchers inventing a minesweeper quickly turns into a moderately NSFL about mobiks abusing animals
-- Drone footage of the massive ammunition detonation in occupied Makiivka.  Wow does this explode.  Looks like a movie.  Includes before images of random ammo strewn about in classically Russian fashion.
-- Traffic backup at the Kerch Bridge continues, because Russia is screening all cars for explosives.  Roughly an hour wait seems pretty typical for a national border crossing, which it is.
-- Ukraine is pushing hard for NATO membership as the Vilnius summit begins. If they don't do it, it's like saying that your enemies can dictate who is allowed to be your friend.  If they do it, it's like saying that the US and Europe want to start World War Three.
-- Currently Turkey and the UK have come out in support of membership, and the US against.
-- Russians keep playing championship Tennis, since most sports are corrupt
-- Wagner forces are leaving the Central African Republic in a "rotation".  Theoretically others will replace them.
-- Zelenskyy mauls Bulgarian president over his opposition to arming Ukraine.  Photo op goes surprisingly poorly.  Bulgarian PM much more in favor of Ukraine.
-- Counteroffensive makes decent progress in the southern (Zaporizhzhia) front, but it's still a slog against fortified lines.
-- (Image) Map of minefields around and inside Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

[robkelk]

AP: Erdogan agrees to send vote on Sweden's NATO accession to Turkish parliament

Which means, if it passes, there wil be one fewer distraction regarding Ukraine's bid to join NATO.

[Labster]

As Rob said above, Turkey agreed to NATO membership, after Erdogan briefly suggested a trade in EU membership for Turkey.  After saying the quiet part aloud, I'm sure everyone at the summit said, "lol nope", and then Erdogan asked, "Well, what can you give me?"

-- Baltic Sea to be renamed to Lake NATO
-- Unsurprisingly NATO summit gives ambiguous message on Ukraine membership.  If you say no, it's obviously bad.  If you say yes, then you start WWIII.  If you say when the war is over, then Russia just continues the war indefinitely.
-- Still, they waived the Membership Action Plan because I mean, come on, actually fighting a war with NATO materiel is plenty of prep for being in NATO.  And more of that materiel, of course.
-- All parties agree that the next NATO summit will be in Crimea -- and it will be a beach party!!!
-- Meanwhile currently on a nearby beach temporarily controlled by Russia.  Everything is completely safe here, comrades, we are just being assholes not trying to scare people out of the water.
-- Ukraine retakes a much territory in 5 weeks as Russia took in the six months prior
-- Another Russian general killed, this time by Storm Shadow missile.
-- If Ukraine uses cluster bombs on Russia, Shoigu says that Russia will have to use cluster bombs on Ukraine.  Is he getting old?  Has he forgotten the last two years?
-- “It should be noted that Russia has cluster munitions in service … for all occasions … They are much more effective than American ones,” saith Shoigu
-- North Korea condemns the US for sending cluster bombs to Ukraine, calling it a criminal act.  "[We] strongly demand the US withdraw the decision immediately.”

[Dartz]

You missed the best one.

A Russian submarine commander posted is run route on Strava
The Director of Ukrainian Intelligence (Supposedly) like the post.
He turned up shot dead.




Apparently his boat had been shooting missiles at cities.

[Labster]

You know, I had a coworker who lived in Krasnodar. I hope that he and his family are safe.

[hazard]

With the current Russian government?

They're not. Sorry.

They may or may not be safe from Ukrainian action, but Russia... this war has shown the Russian government to be much weaker than it said it was, and once it loses this war that's going to mean crackdowns to prevent uprisings. The men on top won't care about whoever gets caught up in the works, so long as it's not them.

[Labster]

Like, there's safe and then there's safe.  I mean, I'm safe here in America even though there's a mass shooting every other day.  And our bridges seem to fall down randomly too, so we have some infrastructure problems.

Anyway back to Ukraine...

-- The Kerch Bridge to Crimea did another oopsie tonight.  All we know for sure is that it's closed both ways.
-- Was it bombed, or did it just break where the cracks were?  Was it just a shitty Russian repair job?
-- Kerch bridge fucked itself
-- This is a real, honest to God, Ukrainian postage stamp
-- Ukrainian lines have advanced enough to collect some lost Bradley tanks.
-- Don't worry, Russian propagandists have taken plenty of angles so they can keep claiming that they're destroying lots of tanks.
-- Ukraine has lost a lot of tanks in the offensive, with estimates around 25%.  What it has not lost is a lot of soldiers in those tanks, because they don't explode like Russian tanks (and Russian bridges)
-- Taiwan is sending HAWK SAMs to Ukraine, bought back but Uncle Sam.  50 year old missiles against 60 year old planes sounds about right (but really they're mostly 1980s upgrade)
-- Guy who carved name in the Roman Colosseum may be from England, but he's named Ivan Dimitrov.  Just saying.
-- Ukraine building 150km pipeline to restore water after dam destroyed
-- Ukraine finally fielding a few of its native-built NATO-compatible (155mm) artillery
-- The Black Sea grain deal is deader than disco.
-- Turkey suggests it might send warships to guard grain, but this seems likely to be bluster.  Meanwhile, new trade routes have been developed over the past year.
-- Russia withdraws nearly all of its troops from Belarus, while a small contingent of Wagners starts training Belarusians.
-- It's starting to look like the compromise between Putin and Prigozhin is that Wagner would keep its forces in Africa, but keep out of the Ukraine war.  Honestly this makes more sense if you start thinking in feudal terms.
-- Actually as usual Russia thinking in feudal terms is exactly why they don't understand the status-quo coalition and why war after the 19th century is a sucker's game.
-- Honestly in retrospect the NATO summit was a fucking triumph.  Zelensky and Erdogan were both stirring shit up, and by the end of it we're all one big happy family

[robkelk]

-- The Black Sea grain deal is deader than disco.

I like the way that AP ran with this one. Quoting from CBC's copy:

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced Russia would suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative until its demands to get its own agricultural shipments to the world are met, even though the country has been shipping record amounts of wheat.

[Dartz]

Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar visits Kyiv. Gets photo taken with Zalenskey

Possibly the first time a joke and a comedian have ever been captured I. The same shot