The Imperial Presidency

[classicdrogn]

Oh, hello there, national shame. It was good to have you gone for a while, but nothing good ever lasts.

[robkelk]

I have no idea what His Orangeness is thinking.

He's placed 25% tariffs on imports from your two most profitable trading partners.

He's placed 10% tariffs on imports from your biggest economic foe.

W.T.F.

Is he trying to crater the USA's economy?

[Bob Schroeck]

Remember, this is a man whose grasp of economics is such that he was able to drive a casino bankrupt.

[MilkmanConspiracy]

Frankly, yes, with the stated goal that the economic damage to limited in the short term. That was stated during the campaign, and economic depression is an easy campaign promise to keep.

It is certainly within their power to depress the economy, but what remains to be seen is if they can rebuild it once their goals are achieved. I don’t foresee any major powers helping substantially in recovery if things continue as is. Even if they are dragged into economic depression as well, I think many countries will push for inner resiliency over rebuilding a once ally (And one that has often bullied their allies and antagonized them, with economic interdependence and security guarantees keeping them aboard) to a bully and ally in name only.

Canadians are in a strong position being among the first to be targeted. Unenviable, but strong. Whatever Canadians do in this time is likely to shape the playbook of what other countries do in response once significant tariffs are used against them. As an economically entwined country, Canada has the opportunity to build other trading ties, both between its provinces and with other nations. I expect European, Japanese, Korean and perhaps Chinese or even Indian, auto manufacturers, to eat the marketshare left by American auto manufacturers, who may encounter supply difficulties of their own given historic use of Canadian parts in American supply chains. I anticipate the reduction in the supply of timber and processed lumber to seriously harm the construction industry, and for Canadian oil and power generation to be blocked increase energy prices.

Edit notice: Small Copyedits.

[Labster]

Trump promised lots of tariffs in his campaign, and he delivered on his promises.  He's just doing what people want, and apparently they want tariffs regardless of likely economic cratering.  That's democracy in action.  In any case, it looks like the stock market is already doing an impression of that airplane over the Potomac.

I assume no one replied to my last post with the pile of links, because of how bewildering all of that was.  Note that this is what living in America is like these days, completely bewildering.

I do want to follow up on one thing I mentioned ... actually apparently I forgot to include it, it got lost in editing?  Okay, so new topic.  Imagine this, you show up at work and some folks from this new, temporary government office show up and demand full access to your computer systems. They want all of the personnel files. The security team says "no, you can't get access to everything, you don't have a security clearance to see everything."  And then everything gets resolved by suspending all of the security officers from work.

This is what happened at USAID, a former government agency, this week: USAID security leaders removed after refusing Elon Musk's DOGE employees access to secure systems.

“No one feels safe to go anywhere near the Ronald Reagan Building,” where USAID is headquartered, a USAID official told NBC News. “We just had Elon Musk call us a criminal organization. Our security chief was escorted out. We know we are being surveilled by DOGE.”

But good news, they don't have to go to work!  The office has been shut down by Elon Musk: Elon Musk says he and Trump are shutting down USAID.  I'm sure the personnel files are being forwarded to prosecutors, since it's already been concluded that they're a criminal organization.  It goes without saying that the United States will not be resuming non-military foreign aid to any countries.

I'm sure that more federal workers will think about that buyout offer: Trump offers incentives to US federal workers to quit jobs -- nearly everyone working for the government got an email offering them 8 months of severance to quit.  All they have to do is agree to resign now, and later Trump will work out the details of how they will get paid.  (Apparently I skipped this topic too.  It's dizzying!)

[Bob Schroeck]

Well, we all know how reliable Trump has been when he's promised people will get paid "later"... Just ask any contractor that's ever worked for him. Or his last six or seven law firms.

[robkelk]

Ford 'ripping up' Ontario's $100M contract with Elon Musk's Starlink in wake of U.S. tariffs

"Ontario won't do business with people hellbent on destroying our economy," Ford said in the statement.

[Jinx999]

https://www.croplife.com/management/legi...rtilizers/

If Trump's tariffs include potash, it's going to be . . . . interesting.

[robkelk]

https://www.croplife.com/management/legi...rtilizers/

If Trump's tariffs include potash, it's going to be . . . . interesting.

Oh, we're already discussing the feasibility of stopping potash exports to the USA for the duration of the tariffs. If it's true that you don't need anything from us, we'll sell it elsewhere.

[Dartz]

One wonders if the kerfuffle over tariffs is a cover for whatever wankerey elon is perpetrating. While everyone and the courts are at home until Monday

[Bob Schroeck]

Meanwhile, the White House is concerned that Canada is not simply rolling over, and is frantically trying to claim the tariffs aren't a "trade war".

[MilkmanConspiracy]

Maybe Canada can spool up the Canadian Tire money printers once again - Perhaps a few zillion dollars in a defunct currency will be enough for the administration to back down and claim a win win.

[MilkmanConspiracy]

I do want to follow up on one thing I mentioned ... actually apparently I forgot to include it, it got lost in editing?  Okay, so new topic.  Imagine this, you show up at work and some folks from this new, temporary government office show up and demand full access to your computer systems. They want all of the personnel files. The security team says "no, you can't get access to everything, you don't have a security clearance to see everything."  And then everything gets resolved by suspending all of the security officers from work.

The transformation of USDS is hard to fathom.

[robkelk]

His Orangeness says the only way to prevent tariffs on Canadian products is for Canada to become the 51st state

Which is just as much a non-starter as the USA becoming the 11th province is.

Enjoy your $5-per-gallon gas, and remember that it's your president who is raising the price.

[Dartz]

I've been drinking because of public holiday here so this idea might be a little less credible than most (Also, this whiskey is old enough to drink itself. 21 year old whsikey - my god)

But, instead of Canadian resistance, why not bring the whole teetering edifice down from the inside? You'lll have 40 million new 'natural born' US Citizens who want cheap healthcare, sensible government, and a general lack of stupidity suddenly absorbed by an entity that wants none of these.

But more than that.

You'll have the current King of Canada - also, arguably also a citizen of the Great State of Canada when it gets assimilated, and therefore eligible to run for the Presidency of the United States of American and Canadia.

Given the choice between the milk toast of the democrats, the swastika of republicanism, the third option is the Presidency of Chuck Windsor - billionaire landowner, landlord and owner of half the fucking British isles.

If American truly wants a King, now you can have one who at least knows how to arrange a murder to look like a car accident.
-----

On a more sensible note, this is probably grotesquely oversimplify things.

If countries had some level of cop on, surely they could figure out some way to come together, talk to each other, and figure out how to trade around the United States the same way the internet routes around damage.

The US is looking at things as if there's a finite amount of pie, and they want the bigger slice.
The rest of the world looks at things as 'how can we make more pie, so everyone can have more slice'

There's a whole load of things Canada isn't going to be able to sell cheaply to America
There's a while load of things Canada isn't going to be able to buy cheaply from America.

One presumes that there's also be a whole load of things the EU will no longer be selling to America
And there'll be a whole load of things the EU will no longer be able to buy cheaply from America.

It sounds simple to reduce it to one line like that, but the EU needs gas and LPG, tree-juice, trees and possibly heavy metals, and Canada is going to be looking to buy Whiskey, foodstuffs and cars and probably meat from animals that arent meat-sacks stuffed with hormones, chlorine and antibiotics, and flavoured by suffering and salmonella

[robkelk]

Given a choice between Irish whiskey and Kentucky bourbon, give me the Irish any day!

Unfortunately, our LNG has to go through the States in order to get to the Atlantic coast... and then we get the same problem Russia is having with its pipelines that run through Ukraine. EDIT: we can get oil directly to the Pacific ports,but that only helps Japan and Korea.

RE-EDIT: Hang on... we have a natural gas pipeline to Montreal, and the smaller trans-Atlantic tankers can dock there. We'd have to build facilities to liquefy the natural gas, though.

[Dartz]

If the US is going to continuously prove to be as reliable as Italian automotive electrics then investing a few hundred million in an LPG terminal seems like good sense.

And maybe if I'm ever going to Canada I'll sneak a bottle in me luggage just to post to yourself.

[robkelk]

Breaking news: there's a 30-day hold on the tariffs. Prime Minister Trudeau announced it; His Orangeness hasn't said anything yet as far as I know.

There's still a lot of intent to buy Canadian, though. We remember 2018.

[hazard]

Something else to keep in mind; import tariffs aren't the only sort of tariffs that exist.

You can also tariff goods being sold from your nation to another.

Now, that is not a likely tool to be used, but it's an option.


And yeah, expect a lot of nations to pursue a decoupling from the USA to one measure or another, because picking the idiot once was bad enough, and now it happened a second time and this time the USA appears to be setting its government and economy on fire as hard as it can.

[robkelk]

The threat of U.S. tariffs has some Canadians taking their money elsewhere.

Considering that one of the stated purposes of the tariffs was to have Canadians stop taking our money elsewhere, they failed big time even without being implemented (yet).


The trade war is off — but for how long?

It would certainly be embarrassing for everyone involved if this was all one big misunderstanding. But if you are threatening to impose high new tariffs on a country — taxing imports from a country with whom you recently signed a free-trade agreement — you are, ipso facto, initiating a trade war.

The other problem with claiming this is just about fentanyl is that Trump himself keeps giving Canadians reason to doubt that.

Humans are conditioned to move on. But the anger Trump inspired this weekend might not be quick to fade. And the last 72 hours have exposed a patriotism and a nationalism that might be harnessed toward some hard thinking and real action toward sorting out how Canada can best move forward in a world where the United States is that much less reliable.

China hits back with tariffs on U.S. goods after Trump's levies take effect

Additional 10 per cent tariff across all Chinese imports into the U.S. came into effect at 12.01 ET after Trump repeatedly warned Beijing it was not doing enough to halt the flow of illicit drugs into the United States.

Within minutes, China's Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15 per cent for U.S. coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas) and 10 per cent for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos. The new tariffs on U.S. exports will start on Feb. 10, the ministry said.

China also said it was starting an anti-monopoly investigation into Google, while including both PVH Corp, the holding company for brands including Calvin Klein, and U.S. biotechnology company Illumina on its "unreliable entities list."

Separately, China's Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said it is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, molybdenum, bismuth and indium to "safeguard national security interests."

And stepping away from money:

Trans families consider leaving U.S. after Trump's re-election

Barbara Fowler has a go bag in the trunk of her car. In it are her family's documents, burner phones, clothes, medications and an address of a house in Canada — ready, should her family need to flee their country.

Fowler lives in the United States.

[Jinx999]

Assuming these stories are accurate and you know anything about engineering or computer programming, panic is the rational response.

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-as...nt-system/

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/mus...0f6f8abc3b

[classicdrogn]

Panic. Yes. I have been sitting here mutttering "Oh holy balls!" for a few minutes now..l. but there's nothing I can do about it, either.

Oh holy balls. I knew we were fucked, but we ate so fucked

[Bob Schroeck]

Significant fraction of the federal budget vanishing into someone's pockets thin air in 5, 4, 3...

[robkelk]

Trump threatens Iran, mulls deporting U.S. prisoners, says no future for Palestinians in Gaza

Yes, His Orangeness actually suggested repeating The Catastrophe.

[Jinx999]

Trump threatens Iran, mulls deporting U.S. prisoners, says no future for Palestinians in Gaza

Currently "Literally the Antichrist" seems to be as good an explanation as any.

Because Jesus Fucking Christ, deliberately trying to destroy the USA doesn't seem to cut it any more.