RE: In a sane world, this would have been enough to disqualify him on the spot
09-30-2018, 01:19 AM
09-30-2018, 01:19 AM
Dirty legislative tricks are part and parcel of democracy, going at least back to the Roman republic when the Pontifex could decide whether or not that year needed a extra month (Mercedonius), thus shortening or lengthening the length of other people's terms.
The way they treated Merrick Garland was wrong, but they'll pay the price. Defect too often, and the other side will learn to defect too. Basic game theory. In fact, that's what Republican Senators think is happening now. But Democrats, we're all-in on the "MeToo" movement, as society has changed in the past two years in ways they just don't understand yet.
Republicans are not reading the zeitgeist right, and on Thursday the managed to take the least-worst option off the table -- no one will believe it if Kavanaugh has a change of heart, and withdraws his own nomination. Not after that tirade. So the remaining options are:
The way they treated Merrick Garland was wrong, but they'll pay the price. Defect too often, and the other side will learn to defect too. Basic game theory. In fact, that's what Republican Senators think is happening now. But Democrats, we're all-in on the "MeToo" movement, as society has changed in the past two years in ways they just don't understand yet.
Republicans are not reading the zeitgeist right, and on Thursday the managed to take the least-worst option off the table -- no one will believe it if Kavanaugh has a change of heart, and withdraws his own nomination. Not after that tirade. So the remaining options are:
- Trump withdraws the nomination, and lets the liberals win. He immediately nominates someone else, someone who will make it through in the lame duck session. This will never happen, despite it being the best remaining choice for Republicans.
- The Senate narrowly defeats Kavanaugh, and will possibly to get a new nominee through in the lame duck session (but now it's a week, maybe more later). This will cost the GOP in the upcoming election in terms of motivating its base.
- The vote is pulled, which is functionally equivalent to the above, but allows people to save a little more face. This play may be accidentally scuttled via Twitter because Trump watches the wrong episode of Hannity.
- The Senate confirms him on a very narrow, party-line vote. Their base will be motivated this time, but they will lose women voters for a generation. Respect for the Supreme Court will decrease, probably for about the same length of time.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto