I'm expecting a number of long-term repercussions from the shutdown myself. Disclaimer: my brother and sister-in-law both work for the government, and he was furloughed this round. They seem to be doing OK, but there are others much worse off than they are.
First, anything government job that paid low salaries that pretty much guaranteed "paycheck to paycheck" will become (potentially much) harder to staff. Best case is they're going to have a sudden number of "transitioning to the private sector" folks who have decided that the paycheck is now too uncertain to risk, even with backpay coming, and those people will have to be replaced. Those wages will have to start increasing whether they want them to or not.
Second, government contractors will be wise to demand 10% more money when the contracts come up for renewal. I'd be surprised if we don't have some of those contractors close down because of the missed month, or decide that they, too, are now done because the money is no longer certain, which will contribute to price increases from those that remain. Some of those that close down will leave unfinished contracts that need to be reshopped in a hurry, which will involve even more money needing to be paid for the same services.
Third, I'm expecting massive backlog issues even without the loss of personnel. I'm expecting our tax return (if we get money back) to easily take a couple of more weeks than normal to process. In fact, we pay someone to do it for us, out of the refund, and we may have to actually pay it out of pocket this time instead of out of the refund if the delays are too long.
And technically this is just the short-term effects. I expect anyone who worked for the government and has had to rely on payday lenders or the pawn shop to make the ends meet while being forced to work is going to well remember this into the 2020 election season, and who was in control of all three branches when this whole disaster was set into motion.
First, anything government job that paid low salaries that pretty much guaranteed "paycheck to paycheck" will become (potentially much) harder to staff. Best case is they're going to have a sudden number of "transitioning to the private sector" folks who have decided that the paycheck is now too uncertain to risk, even with backpay coming, and those people will have to be replaced. Those wages will have to start increasing whether they want them to or not.
Second, government contractors will be wise to demand 10% more money when the contracts come up for renewal. I'd be surprised if we don't have some of those contractors close down because of the missed month, or decide that they, too, are now done because the money is no longer certain, which will contribute to price increases from those that remain. Some of those that close down will leave unfinished contracts that need to be reshopped in a hurry, which will involve even more money needing to be paid for the same services.
Third, I'm expecting massive backlog issues even without the loss of personnel. I'm expecting our tax return (if we get money back) to easily take a couple of more weeks than normal to process. In fact, we pay someone to do it for us, out of the refund, and we may have to actually pay it out of pocket this time instead of out of the refund if the delays are too long.
And technically this is just the short-term effects. I expect anyone who worked for the government and has had to rely on payday lenders or the pawn shop to make the ends meet while being forced to work is going to well remember this into the 2020 election season, and who was in control of all three branches when this whole disaster was set into motion.
"You know how parents tell you everything's going to fine, but you know they're lying to make you feel better? Everything's going to be fine." - The Doctor