Our stock market went up 3% on the news that Bernie was quitting the race. Which seriously makes me doubt the sanity of traders. Not that avoiding a socialist president would be good for share value -- that seems legit. But that anyone could have seen this coming at least two weeks ago; it should have already been priced into the market.
To me it feels like the bulls are so desperate for good news that they'll take non-news like this as an excuse to start the party again. And this points to an extremely irrational market.
The next question now is whether the party will cancel the national convention and simply proceed with the coronation (pun intended). The Republican party, in its wisdom, started cancelling primaries even before anyone knew about the coronavirus. But it will take a bit of work to ensure we're not creating a national super-spreader event.
And then, of course, the risk that Trump will simply cancel the next election. It happened in Hungary; it's got to be on his mind.
To me it feels like the bulls are so desperate for good news that they'll take non-news like this as an excuse to start the party again. And this points to an extremely irrational market.
The next question now is whether the party will cancel the national convention and simply proceed with the coronation (pun intended). The Republican party, in its wisdom, started cancelling primaries even before anyone knew about the coronavirus. But it will take a bit of work to ensure we're not creating a national super-spreader event.
And then, of course, the risk that Trump will simply cancel the next election. It happened in Hungary; it's got to be on his mind.
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto