(11-21-2020, 08:53 PM)robkelk Wrote:(11-21-2020, 08:23 PM)GethN7 Wrote:(11-21-2020, 08:21 PM)nocarename Wrote:(11-21-2020, 08:13 PM)GethN7 Wrote: More like I have no idea what will happen in the end. I keep getting this weird historical deja vu to how Rutherford Hayes got into the office when Tilden otherwise would have won conventionally. No one is completely sure of every last detail of that last-minute deal to get Hayes the job, and even I admit I have no clue Trump will do at the last moment. Be that good, bad, or just "What the hell is he smoking?" crazy.What counts as a clear winner being declared here? Is it a public Trump concession or would something else work in place of that?
Once we get a clear winner declared for sure, I'll concretely agree to Biden winning, because this year, in particular, has been so insane I would be surprised if bug aliens burst out of both Biden and Trump at the last moment, call in an alien fleet, and we get the news saying they welcome our new insectoid overlords Kent Brockman style.
All the legal crap put to bed and a legally affirmed winner (as determined by the Supreme Court, as they'll likely have to hash this out eventually). Hayes had to have part of his trip to the Oval Office signed off on by them too.
Which means not until the swearing-in ceremony, and maybe not even then.
The rest of us are going by who has the largest number of delegates pledged to them at the Electoral College.
And that brings me back to my point. Hayes only won because the contest votes in 1876 elections were awarded to him. On paper, Tilden otherwise won the electoral vote.
I'm a student of history, and the legal precedents of the US mean the APPARENT EC superiority Biden has may not be the deciding factor unless it is legally affirmed he got them legit. If the courts side with him, Trump would legally be screwed and Biden the winner, and since Trump is willing to take it that far, that means if the SC sides with Biden, Trump is out of ammo, but not before then.
THAT is why I'm hedging my bets. Granted, I admit Trump's chances of an SC reversal are not that great (and that is being generous), but then again, Hayes was almost boned until he got the surprise overturn that pushed him over the top instead of Tilden.