RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II
09-09-2022, 04:58 AM
09-09-2022, 04:58 AM
When I last posted an update about a week ago, we were anxiously awaiting updates from Ukraine's assault of the Kherson region. Ukraine had effectively telegraphed their intent to assault the Kherson area in the weeks leading up to this offensive, which had been expected as early as August 15. The offensive started nearly a couple of weeks after that date, which has meant that Russia had sent more reinforcements to the area. This has made the fighting a good bit slower, but progress has been made.
Zooming out a bit, there are three main fronts in the war. The central one, and current main effort for the Russians, is to capture the boundaries of the Donetsk oblast. Putin has decreed that it shall happen by September 15 (it's definitely not happening), but this means that effectively no resources could be transferred from this front to the southern area in Kherson. Given Russia's near full commitment of its army, this essentially meant that they had to transfer some units from the northern front, near Kharkiv and outside the Luhansk oblast.
On the other hand, the new recruits have just finished training in Ukraine, so it has a lot of options to both reinforce and to retake territory. Having started the assault in to retake Kherson, the forces around Kharkiv were looking pretty thin. And thus the second assault happened, and Ukraine has been able to retake territory quite fast here. The Russian military bloggers are openly freaking out that this was all an evil Ukrainian ruse, and Russia took the bait, blyat, and everything is going to go south. Meanwhile, nothing but silence from official Russian military channels.
It's hard to say if this is true or if it's just opportunistic attacks, but it's certainly the case that Russia has a lot of forces committed in the south, behind destroyed bridges with little hope of reinforcement, thin forces in the north, and a slowly grinding offensive in the east. The war is pretty brutal, and people are dying on both sides, but it is looking bad for the Russians. In the last 3 months Russia gained about 612 km², but it only took 8 days for Ukraine to retake 1000 km². We just need to pray that as many people are possible are liberated before winter sets in.
Kherson front, September 7
Kharkiv front, September 7
-- Ukraine captured a Russian lieutenant general... or did they? At the very least, that guy could be a stunt double for the general. It could be him, though.
-- Russians to buy arms from North Korea. This is not a joke; arms export are one of the major industries of the People's Republic of Best Korea (ok that part is a joke), because it's an industry where most buyers are trying to evade sanctions anyway.
-- Video: Russians explain to IAEA nuclear scientists how Ukrainian rockets make a U-turn mid-flight, so it just looks like they came from the Russian side.
-- Russian troubles continue in the Transnistria puppet regime. Since the invasion, popular support for the Russian "peacekeepers" in this "breakaway" "republic" within Moldovia has fallen away. Not only can they not recruit from the local population, there are rumors that the Russians may be evicted by the local "government".
-- Russians move their version of the Kharkiv region capital from Kupyansk to Volchansk, on the northern border.
-- Kupyansk is a prime target for Ukraine, as it is a major crossroads and rail depot. Taking it would effectively take another major pocket of little to no reinforcements from Russia.
-- Ukraine continues to attack where Russia is doing the worst: Supplies!
-- Video: the Ghost of Kyiv greets a fan on the ground very quickly
-- Ukrainians have sufficient air control over the south that they are launching attacks with jets and bayraktars.
-- Russians bombed after sharing their location with beautiful women on a dating site. Catfishing at its finest.
-- I don't think I posted this photo when it happened last month, so let's do it now: Ukrainian law enforcement captures a pair of Russian assassins, sent to kill the defense minister. Ukrainians: look at that supermarket bag, how did they get such good advertising? Tied up orcs and tractors?
-- We tell stories about Russian spies, but how bad are they? Here's a twitter thread about a woman sent to spy on Americans in Italy. She was discovered because the FSB issues passports to spies in consecutive numbers, so if you catch a couple of them, you can check for more! Fun fact: her cover story's entire exclusive jewelry line was ordered from AliExpress.
-- Dozens of Russian propaganda channels post the same message: “no, there’s no panic”.
-- The surest indication on how well this is going for Ukraine is how much Russia is lying about it.
-- Referenda to join the great Mother Russia are being rescheduled to November 4, because the people running them don't want to make themselves a target
-- Russia Local provisional governments and independent republics to nationalize all property in occupied territories by October 1 unless the owners come back to claim it by then.
-- Speaking of theft, appliances are being found on the roadside as orcs rush to abandon their posts
-- It's long been known that Russians are imperialist thugs, committing genocide across Eurasia. But Germany has finally found out how terrible they really are: they are bad business partners.
-- Russia cuts off gas supply via Nord Stream 1 indefinitely (until morale improves). Russia somehow thought this would cause Germany to cave, because they don't understand Germans apparently. Instead, the government seems to have written them off completely.
-- Ordnung Muß sein!
Zooming out a bit, there are three main fronts in the war. The central one, and current main effort for the Russians, is to capture the boundaries of the Donetsk oblast. Putin has decreed that it shall happen by September 15 (it's definitely not happening), but this means that effectively no resources could be transferred from this front to the southern area in Kherson. Given Russia's near full commitment of its army, this essentially meant that they had to transfer some units from the northern front, near Kharkiv and outside the Luhansk oblast.
On the other hand, the new recruits have just finished training in Ukraine, so it has a lot of options to both reinforce and to retake territory. Having started the assault in to retake Kherson, the forces around Kharkiv were looking pretty thin. And thus the second assault happened, and Ukraine has been able to retake territory quite fast here. The Russian military bloggers are openly freaking out that this was all an evil Ukrainian ruse, and Russia took the bait, blyat, and everything is going to go south. Meanwhile, nothing but silence from official Russian military channels.
It's hard to say if this is true or if it's just opportunistic attacks, but it's certainly the case that Russia has a lot of forces committed in the south, behind destroyed bridges with little hope of reinforcement, thin forces in the north, and a slowly grinding offensive in the east. The war is pretty brutal, and people are dying on both sides, but it is looking bad for the Russians. In the last 3 months Russia gained about 612 km², but it only took 8 days for Ukraine to retake 1000 km². We just need to pray that as many people are possible are liberated before winter sets in.
Kherson front, September 7
Kharkiv front, September 7
-- Ukraine captured a Russian lieutenant general... or did they? At the very least, that guy could be a stunt double for the general. It could be him, though.
-- Russians to buy arms from North Korea. This is not a joke; arms export are one of the major industries of the People's Republic of Best Korea (ok that part is a joke), because it's an industry where most buyers are trying to evade sanctions anyway.
-- Video: Russians explain to IAEA nuclear scientists how Ukrainian rockets make a U-turn mid-flight, so it just looks like they came from the Russian side.
-- Russian troubles continue in the Transnistria puppet regime. Since the invasion, popular support for the Russian "peacekeepers" in this "breakaway" "republic" within Moldovia has fallen away. Not only can they not recruit from the local population, there are rumors that the Russians may be evicted by the local "government".
-- Russians move their version of the Kharkiv region capital from Kupyansk to Volchansk, on the northern border.
-- Kupyansk is a prime target for Ukraine, as it is a major crossroads and rail depot. Taking it would effectively take another major pocket of little to no reinforcements from Russia.
-- Ukraine continues to attack where Russia is doing the worst: Supplies!
-- Video: the Ghost of Kyiv greets a fan on the ground very quickly
-- Ukrainians have sufficient air control over the south that they are launching attacks with jets and bayraktars.
-- Russians bombed after sharing their location with beautiful women on a dating site. Catfishing at its finest.
-- I don't think I posted this photo when it happened last month, so let's do it now: Ukrainian law enforcement captures a pair of Russian assassins, sent to kill the defense minister. Ukrainians: look at that supermarket bag, how did they get such good advertising? Tied up orcs and tractors?
-- We tell stories about Russian spies, but how bad are they? Here's a twitter thread about a woman sent to spy on Americans in Italy. She was discovered because the FSB issues passports to spies in consecutive numbers, so if you catch a couple of them, you can check for more! Fun fact: her cover story's entire exclusive jewelry line was ordered from AliExpress.
-- Dozens of Russian propaganda channels post the same message: “no, there’s no panic”.
-- The surest indication on how well this is going for Ukraine is how much Russia is lying about it.
-- Referenda to join the great Mother Russia are being rescheduled to November 4, because the people running them don't want to make themselves a target
-- Russia Local provisional governments and independent republics to nationalize all property in occupied territories by October 1 unless the owners come back to claim it by then.
-- Speaking of theft, appliances are being found on the roadside as orcs rush to abandon their posts
-- It's long been known that Russians are imperialist thugs, committing genocide across Eurasia. But Germany has finally found out how terrible they really are: they are bad business partners.
-- Russia cuts off gas supply via Nord Stream 1 indefinitely (until morale improves). Russia somehow thought this would cause Germany to cave, because they don't understand Germans apparently. Instead, the government seems to have written them off completely.
-- Ordnung Muß sein!
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto