RE: Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II
11-19-2024, 05:45 AM
11-19-2024, 05:45 AM
Today is Day 1000 of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its big invasion of Ukraine, and we had the 3 day trip to Kyiv that is now longer than three Venusian days. The war crimes, the convoy to nowhere, and all of the stolen toilets began that day.
Actually, I'm going to take a bit of a detour here, because I've been watching a documentary series called Dates that made History on the Amazon, and one of the questions it asks for important historical events is "what makes an event?" and "why this particular day?" Even if something big happened, there's a good deal of social construction around what dates we choose to remember.
In this case, the war didn't even begin 1000 days ago, it began in February 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. (Both times breaking the Olympic Truce, but in 2014 during Russia's own Olympics). Or maybe the war really got started at the Euromaidan in November 2013, when protesters caused the pro-Russian government to fall and definitely set a course for Ukraine towards Europe. Maybe war was inevitable by that point. Honestly, I think I would set the Maidan protests as the key event which precipitated everything.
But then I see comments on Reddit like "The 1000th day of a ten-year invasion that has been going on for centuries." This is kind of true, but kind of hyperbole. Ukraine is something of a crossroads for peoples of history. Proto-Indo-European likely emerged from the Pontic Steppes, and spread outwards with the people and their horses. The first documented peoples in Ukraine were the Greeks and Israelites. Ukraine marked the northeasternmost boundaries of the Roman sphere, and the westernmost extent of the Mongol Empire. The Crimean tatars still live there today, as are the Romanians next door in Moldova. The Bulgars moved through Ukraine, from the Volga to Bulgaria, as did many other groups in the Migration Period. Kyiv was founded by Vikings, but became the first eastern Slavic state.
But I think what they're talking about is more recent history, with the Muscovy client state of the Khans taking their place and usurping the name Russia. Ukraine being split between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Russia, with independent Cossacks in the borderlands. I think the area is a lot like Palestine, a relatively rich land on the borders of larger states, which means a lots of cultures and religions meet and forge a new identity. But it's a centuries-long struggle to be seen as something other than someone else's borderland.
There's an extent to which the ancient history is just that, ancient history. In the mid 1800s, a real nationalist movement began to develop in Ukraine. And that makes them just as real as any other nation. The struggle to decolonize Ukraine continues, whether it's 1000 days, or 100 years.
-- Russia’s Largest Film Studio Donated Antique Tanks To The Military -- when your military is running out of tanks
-- North Korea is sending tanks that use 170mm barrels, a very unusual size since Germans last used it WWII, meaning that Russia is reliant on North Korea to provide ammunition.
-- Russian combined arms is starting to look like Ooarai Tankery Club
-- The predictions continue to be that Russia will run out of barrels for tanks and artillery in 2025, assuming China doesn't agree to supply them. Domestic production is low quality and ~20% of the rate of losses.
-- The next year, and I hope final year of the war, becomes something of a race: will Russia's Soviet-era arms surplus run out first, or will American and European support dry up enough faster?
-- Dark Brandon is finally allowing Ukraine to use long range missiles against Russian clay... in Kursk Oblast. That's hardly very exciting, even as a major policy change, but it's making Republicans upset.
-- Russia issues obligatory nuclear threat
-- As it starts to get cold, lots of Russian bombings of power plants in Ukraine.
-- Russia is starting to have demographic challenges, which is to say manpower problems, which is another way of saying they are running out of young men to send to the slaughter. The fact that they are relying on Koreans is very telling.
-- Russia is a state with a low birth rate, just like most of Europe. They can continue to kill minorities, but they won't be replaced as in previous generations. Thus the crackdown on the gays to increase the birth rate.
-- Ukraine passes law for civil unions for gay people. (Their constitution, which can't be amended during martial law, defines marriage as between a man and a woman.)
-- Trump will end the war on day 1 of his presidency, maybe day 2 if he's busy.
-- Russian front lines are advancing in the east with infusion of Korean shock troopers, but slowly. I'd say at a snail's pace, but it's literally around 5-25% of a snail's pace.
-- Russian ballet dancer and war critic gracelessly falls out of fifth storey window
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its big invasion of Ukraine, and we had the 3 day trip to Kyiv that is now longer than three Venusian days. The war crimes, the convoy to nowhere, and all of the stolen toilets began that day.
Actually, I'm going to take a bit of a detour here, because I've been watching a documentary series called Dates that made History on the Amazon, and one of the questions it asks for important historical events is "what makes an event?" and "why this particular day?" Even if something big happened, there's a good deal of social construction around what dates we choose to remember.
In this case, the war didn't even begin 1000 days ago, it began in February 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. (Both times breaking the Olympic Truce, but in 2014 during Russia's own Olympics). Or maybe the war really got started at the Euromaidan in November 2013, when protesters caused the pro-Russian government to fall and definitely set a course for Ukraine towards Europe. Maybe war was inevitable by that point. Honestly, I think I would set the Maidan protests as the key event which precipitated everything.
But then I see comments on Reddit like "The 1000th day of a ten-year invasion that has been going on for centuries." This is kind of true, but kind of hyperbole. Ukraine is something of a crossroads for peoples of history. Proto-Indo-European likely emerged from the Pontic Steppes, and spread outwards with the people and their horses. The first documented peoples in Ukraine were the Greeks and Israelites. Ukraine marked the northeasternmost boundaries of the Roman sphere, and the westernmost extent of the Mongol Empire. The Crimean tatars still live there today, as are the Romanians next door in Moldova. The Bulgars moved through Ukraine, from the Volga to Bulgaria, as did many other groups in the Migration Period. Kyiv was founded by Vikings, but became the first eastern Slavic state.
But I think what they're talking about is more recent history, with the Muscovy client state of the Khans taking their place and usurping the name Russia. Ukraine being split between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Russia, with independent Cossacks in the borderlands. I think the area is a lot like Palestine, a relatively rich land on the borders of larger states, which means a lots of cultures and religions meet and forge a new identity. But it's a centuries-long struggle to be seen as something other than someone else's borderland.
There's an extent to which the ancient history is just that, ancient history. In the mid 1800s, a real nationalist movement began to develop in Ukraine. And that makes them just as real as any other nation. The struggle to decolonize Ukraine continues, whether it's 1000 days, or 100 years.
-- Russia’s Largest Film Studio Donated Antique Tanks To The Military -- when your military is running out of tanks
-- North Korea is sending tanks that use 170mm barrels, a very unusual size since Germans last used it WWII, meaning that Russia is reliant on North Korea to provide ammunition.
-- Russian combined arms is starting to look like Ooarai Tankery Club
-- The predictions continue to be that Russia will run out of barrels for tanks and artillery in 2025, assuming China doesn't agree to supply them. Domestic production is low quality and ~20% of the rate of losses.
-- The next year, and I hope final year of the war, becomes something of a race: will Russia's Soviet-era arms surplus run out first, or will American and European support dry up enough faster?
-- Dark Brandon is finally allowing Ukraine to use long range missiles against Russian clay... in Kursk Oblast. That's hardly very exciting, even as a major policy change, but it's making Republicans upset.
-- Russia issues obligatory nuclear threat
-- As it starts to get cold, lots of Russian bombings of power plants in Ukraine.
-- Russia is starting to have demographic challenges, which is to say manpower problems, which is another way of saying they are running out of young men to send to the slaughter. The fact that they are relying on Koreans is very telling.
-- Russia is a state with a low birth rate, just like most of Europe. They can continue to kill minorities, but they won't be replaced as in previous generations. Thus the crackdown on the gays to increase the birth rate.
-- Ukraine passes law for civil unions for gay people. (Their constitution, which can't be amended during martial law, defines marriage as between a man and a woman.)
-- Trump will end the war on day 1 of his presidency, maybe day 2 if he's busy.
-- Russian front lines are advancing in the east with infusion of Korean shock troopers, but slowly. I'd say at a snail's pace, but it's literally around 5-25% of a snail's pace.
-- Russian ballet dancer and war critic gracelessly falls out of fifth storey window
"Kitto daijoubu da yo." - Sakura Kinomoto