I work as a research analyst at an Asian think-tank. When Kim rolled over, we got a bunch of calls from media - CNBC, Channel NewsAsia, newspapers, etc. - asking for comments and analysis, if we could send someone for a TV spot, so on. This is usually the type of thing we jump all over. C'mon, we're a think tank, we survive on this stuff.
In this instance, we've politely turned down all requests. Largely because, well, we have nothing useful to say. Nobody really knows what's going on in North Korea, not even the experts. Is the regime going to be stable? Are they gonna become more belligerent towards their enemies as a way of deflecting attention from internal problems? Is the new guy gonna actually hold power, or just be a puppet of his aunt and uncle? Damn if I know. Damn if anyone here knows.
The difficulty is one way or another people are bracing for the worst; South Korea's on military alert, Japan's in crisis planning. All we've got is uncertainty. That's worrying in and of itself.
Personally - and I have absolutely zilch to back this up - I don't think North Korea's gonna implode on itself or anything. But it's anyone's guess how they'll behave going forward, both in terms of external and internal policy. On the subject of reform:-
Here's a comparison - to another Asian country. Couple weeks ago, I got a chance to speak to some government folks from Myanmar (or Burma, if you prefer). Nobody denies that the reforms there are top-down, driven by the country's elites.
But the sentiment is that the folks at the top in Myanmar...genuinely want reform - because they're genuinely interested in raising living standards, and that's the way to go. They're also worried about Arab Spring-style protests. The more cynical elements in leadership...still fear their country being isolated. And they see Asian communist countries like China and Vietnam as good examples - they want that kind of success too.
However, the Myanmar official I spoke to also refused to comment, at all, on how their buddies over in North Korea might jump. Because, hell, they just don't know. The above factors are at work in Myanmar, and make total sense. But who knows how Pyongyang thinks?
-- Acyl
In this instance, we've politely turned down all requests. Largely because, well, we have nothing useful to say. Nobody really knows what's going on in North Korea, not even the experts. Is the regime going to be stable? Are they gonna become more belligerent towards their enemies as a way of deflecting attention from internal problems? Is the new guy gonna actually hold power, or just be a puppet of his aunt and uncle? Damn if I know. Damn if anyone here knows.
The difficulty is one way or another people are bracing for the worst; South Korea's on military alert, Japan's in crisis planning. All we've got is uncertainty. That's worrying in and of itself.
Personally - and I have absolutely zilch to back this up - I don't think North Korea's gonna implode on itself or anything. But it's anyone's guess how they'll behave going forward, both in terms of external and internal policy. On the subject of reform:-
Here's a comparison - to another Asian country. Couple weeks ago, I got a chance to speak to some government folks from Myanmar (or Burma, if you prefer). Nobody denies that the reforms there are top-down, driven by the country's elites.
But the sentiment is that the folks at the top in Myanmar...genuinely want reform - because they're genuinely interested in raising living standards, and that's the way to go. They're also worried about Arab Spring-style protests. The more cynical elements in leadership...still fear their country being isolated. And they see Asian communist countries like China and Vietnam as good examples - they want that kind of success too.
However, the Myanmar official I spoke to also refused to comment, at all, on how their buddies over in North Korea might jump. Because, hell, they just don't know. The above factors are at work in Myanmar, and make total sense. But who knows how Pyongyang thinks?
-- Acyl