Analogy is suspect but here goes.
Kim Jong Il and his son and current heir remind me strongly of Septimus Severus and later Caracalla. In both cases, they cleaved to a very strong maxim; if they ensure that the army is paid; they can get away with pretty much anything (mind the soliders and ignore everyone else). Likewise the issue of Kim's other issue also has parallels, though there is a stronger mandate for Un (Caracalla and Geta were to share the role of Emperor.)
If there is to be instability it will come from an internal non-military source; though it will likely manifest as one of the other Jong-spawn convincing a portion of the military to shift their alliance to him.
I would not be surprised if the other brothers follow their father in the next 18 months.
Kim Jong Il and his son and current heir remind me strongly of Septimus Severus and later Caracalla. In both cases, they cleaved to a very strong maxim; if they ensure that the army is paid; they can get away with pretty much anything (mind the soliders and ignore everyone else). Likewise the issue of Kim's other issue also has parallels, though there is a stronger mandate for Un (Caracalla and Geta were to share the role of Emperor.)
If there is to be instability it will come from an internal non-military source; though it will likely manifest as one of the other Jong-spawn convincing a portion of the military to shift their alliance to him.
I would not be surprised if the other brothers follow their father in the next 18 months.