Quote:But how much of their capaility can NK's opponents afford to use against them?
South Korea honestly has everything they need to push NK over any time they decide it's worth getting Seoul shelled. They have a very modern, well-supplied, well-equipped, and quite sizable army; the days of Syngman Rhee are far behind us, as are those of Kim Il Sung. However much the latter's memory might be deified, if North Korea's army ever seriously tangled with its opposite number across the DMZ, it wouldn't just get beaten - it'd go splat. The US honestly only plays into matters as a safety blanket and - possibly - a counterweight to China.
The real factors are Seoul's vulnerability to bombardment - it's a 'Primate City', on the mold of Tokyo, Paris, and Mexico City, so this affects a major slice of South Korea's population and an immense fraction of its economy - and the fact that knocking over NK would mean occupying and rebuilding it afterwards, like when Germany reunified only about ten times worse.
How much of this NK's leadership recognizes is... hard to say. For what it's worth, my most common history Prof was South Korean himself, and he thought that the situation would be stable for at least the next several decades.
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"V, did you do something foolish?"
"Yes, and it was glorious."