Quote:robkelk wrote:If the pattern holds as with 2012, 1% percent ahead means 4% ahead in the polls, which means a comfortable 300 plus electoral votes for the Democrats. The GOP is acknowledging Clinton as at the 300 vote mark maybe even going to 350-400 electoral vote range. Arizona, Georgia, Florida and Texas are in play for the Democrats. Does anyone realize the significance? Deep Red states who had been reliably GOP since Reagan's time are now in play! Just look at where Michelle Obama is being deployed. Now that's not just a win. That's a blowout. You'll have to look at Reagan's campaign in 1976 for a similar result.
I just looked at the Poll Tracker page for this election.
Poll Tracker does exactly what it says on the tin - polls are tracked, weighted so that newer polls with larger samples are given more importance, and aggregated. It has a pretty good record of calling elections. (One can also play with it for what-if scenarios -- I managed to come up with a tie scenario by flipping only five "battlefield" states.)
I find it interesting that Trump has always been trailing in the polls by at least 1% of the total votes, and has usually been 2% or more behind Hillary since the tracking began on June 15. (That 2% number is important, because that's the margin of error.) Usually one sees the front-runners trading places in the lead a few times - that hasn't happened in this election.
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