09-26-2022, 03:01 PM (This post was last modified: 09-26-2022, 03:03 PM by Dartz.)
It's been an interesting couple of days.
-Edward Snowden is now a Russian Citizen.
-How long before he's mobilised too?
-Putin's Cockholster in Hungary claims EU sanctions are backfiring - probably just to extract more concessions from the EU
-Italy goes right wing because nobody else bothered to vote. Italy being Italy, it'll change nothing. The system's designed to be broken and unstable - to keep another Mussolini from centreing power.
-Roger Waters is banned from Poland for calling on Ukraine to seek peace with Russia. He's basically gone off the deep end.
-Meanwhile, Pink Floyd released a single to raise money from Ukraine. (I have it too)
-Some lad at a bus-station sets himself on fire rather than go to the front.
-In Soviet Russia, Conscript BLAMS Commissar.
-Some lads are caught on camera shouting 'Up Ukraine, Up with USA, Russia is shit' in Russian military barracks.
-Some poor bastards are issued gun-shaped slabs of rust that've been dredged up from the bottom of the canal. Maybe they still shoot?
-Fifteen recruiting stations have been torched since the mobilisation order went live.
-More hollow nuclear Sabre Rattling.
-It's clearly going well so.
-China strengthens its borders to keep Russians from fleeing.
-Georgia is making fleeing Russians sign a 'Russia is bad, mmm'kay' declaration
-While tuning back people who show up at the Border with a Z on their car
-Nissan sportscar owners expected to be dissaponted.
-Russia proceeds with "referendum". Threatens to nuke anyone who disagrees with subsequent aunschluss
-One wonders if they were bounced into it by Winnie the Pooh insisting his new plaything to the North sort itself out
-Putin was - embarrassed publicly -- at a recent conference in China. Left to wait by every one of the 'stans.
-He's gone to seethe in his private luxury dacha, far away from any man-sized windows.
-Ukraine announced. No more mobilisation. It has enough troops.
-General Mud is back to get in the way of things.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
10-05-2022, 05:23 AM (This post was last modified: 10-05-2022, 05:24 AM by Labster.)
A lot has happened since I last wrote here, from a mobilization to liberation of vast amounts of territory.
But let me start here: Russia is like a fractal of crappiness, and the closer you look, the more plain awful it gets. Unlike other places called plain awful, they do not have square eggs, but they do have a "partial mobilization" of their country. This is important to to defend the borders of Russia from silly Ukrainians who still think that the this newly eternal Russian clay is theirs.
So what is a partial mobilization? Basically a full mobilization, done poorly. Last time I shared a video of press gangs walking out with a class of university students. Police officers are getting draft notices that their superiors are telling them to ignore, army recruiters are ignoring this because the police superiors didn't fill out the requisite paperwork. Basically, it's drafting anyone and everyone of an appropriate age, except Muscovites, naturally.
This looks a lot like a full mobilization, especially to those who didn't expect to be drafted. This has led to long lines of people leaving the country at any place that will still take them. Due to new visa restrictions, that's mainly Georgia and Finland right now, at least in the west. These people aren't necessarily anti-war -- some of them have big ol' Z's on their car in solidarity with fascism. They're anti-me-being-in-war.
But in a way, who can blame them? It's starting to become well-known that people exempt from the draft have been conscripted, despite the law saying otherwise. But this is Russia, right? Some recruitment officers gave and interview saying that yes, they have made some mistakes, but the conscripts are already at the front lines, so what can you do? What can you do, indeed. Well, this is Russia, so it's going to get worse.
Papa Putin has noticed this, and he is going to punish these recruitment officers severely for implementing his plan to draft everyone in sight. And how are they accomplishing that? Well, they're reassigning them to press gangs in different oblasts entirely. And here I thought they were an Orthodox country, but that is straight out of the Catholic playbook.
But let's go deeper here. Those conscripts are already in Ukraine Novorussya?. I mean, it's been like a week, right? They don't need all that much training, because why would a backwards country like Russia train its soldiers. Actually, the Soviet design pre-2010 was to have a standing army heavy on officers, and rely on mobilizations when they need armies. Training was supposed to happen when conscripts joined these armies. But then Russia decided that they wanted a professional army, like all of the cool countries. They did this poorly, of course, resulting mainly in saving money on the armed forces. They acted like they could call the conscripts up like in the old days, but had a decade or so to lose all of the expertise and records needed to do that efficiently. Thus the disgrace of drafting today.
Okay, but they have the conscript now, somehow, and could send him to the front line. The only problem is, well, they don't have equipment to send. This is the country that recently misplaced 1.5 million winter uniforms. A few months ago, we heard about them handing out hundred year old guns to recruits, now we hear about conscripts making it to the front with no guns. But hey, they can do like in Halo, just take guns from dead allies or enemies -- I'm sure Private Conscriptovich can handle it just as well as a fully armored Master Chief, right?
HIMARS kept destroying all of the large depots and ammo dumps, so Russia got smart and started spreading them out all over the place. There is one small problem with this: if your logistics are garbage, you can't get anything out of the ammo dump. And then you run away, and leave it behind for Ukrainians to find. So that's not going to help arm the conscripts, either.
So what people are doing is buying their own gear and arms to take with them, and taking loans to do it. Will these soldiers even make it to their first payday? So we have got to the stage that random people off the street have to take out loans for the glory of dying for mother Russia.
But as our good friend Professor Mikage would say, "Go deeper, much deeper."
None of this is going to make a lick of difference to the war effort. I suppose some of these conscripts might get lucky and kill a Ukrainian or two. Reinforcements can't get in to reinforce the southern Kherson front due to bridge damage, and the army is in a full rout now on the northern Luhansk front. About a week ago we called it the Kharkiv front, but Kharkiv oblast has been fully liberated, and Ukraine has crossed the Oskil River. What difference will they make now? With zero training, they can only lower morale in an army that is already retreating advancing backwards.
And of course, the war is fundamentally unwinnable on a grand strategic level, as it has been for months now. Russia continues to show weakness, the West continues to show power projection. Yet the war continues for domestic policy reasons. And now they're sending civilians to the front with no training and pretending they are soldiers. On the bright side, it's doubtful they actually have the logistics to send 300k men to the front right before winter.
Does it get any worse? Well... Russia just annexed some land, so those people are perfect recruits for the Russian Army. They're already there, even. I mean, fuck the Geneva Convention, right? Russia is giving them 30 days to opt out of Russian citizenship, which sounds a lot like opting for a firing squad to me, but perhaps not. Perhaps just a gulag.
-- The battlefield is turning into an absolute rout on two fronts, with significant losses in territory in both Luhansk in the north, and north of Kherson in the southern theatre.
-- Bridgeheads across the Oskil River in the north were successful, and Russians continue to retreat east towards their reinforced lines.
-- Meanwhile in the south, advances continued down the Dnipro, over a couple days the front moved 30 miles and Russia is now occupying Mylove.
---- From Russia with Mylove?
-- Russian advance in Bahkmut (middle front) is not doing so well. Ukraine recaptured six weeks of losses in six hours, as Wagner mercs went north to reinforce Lyman (and were too late).
-- The Ukrainian Surrender Hotline has been getting a lot of calls. Even newly mobilized Russians call to ask how to surrender, just in case.
-- Conscripted Russian Soldier Immediately Surrenders to Ukraine Forces. Ah, the plan worked.
-- Russians realized how fucked they are, in real time
-- Russia holds a definitely fake referendum to annex parts of Ukraine. They didn't even bother to mark the ballots before counting them.
-- Putin holds rally accepting the "offer" of annexation from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson after "referendum"
-- The next day, Lyman falls to the Ukrainian army, so what part of Donetsk are they annexing?
-- Actually, no one seems entirely clear on what they were annexing, with no borders mentioned, then contradictory borders?
-- Plausibly it was unclear as a way to give Ukraine a chance to negotiate a peace, but, like, Ukraine is crushing it right now.
-- Zelensky says there will be no treaty with Russia while Putin reigns
-- Now that these people are once again Russian, Russia has imposed severe travel restrictions after the referendum in an attempt to stop partisans, conscript, and forcefully control the population that just voted like 99% that they wanted to be part of Russia. COVID lockdowns were great, why not have some more, voters thought, probably.
-- Slovakia approves NATO accession for Scandinavia. Remaining are Turkey, Hungary: as expected.
-- Ukraine wants an accelerated application to NATO. They are just done with Russia's bullshit.
-- So far only Baltics and Eastern Europeans have expressed support for joining NATO. Oh, and Canada.
-- US and UK are both at: we just can't say aloud that we want you to join because of certain isotopes.
-- It looks like the Membership Assistance Program is all they're gonna get for now.
-- While NATO won't extend protection to Ukraine, Europe is already under the umbrella of Ukrainian protection right now.
-- US Congress approves another $12 billion in aid for Ukraine. Lend-Lease also goes into effect now, if Congress decides to stop allocating cash directly in the future.
-- UK Foreign Secretary vows, "We will support them until the last Russian tank is dragged away by the last Ukrainian tractor".
-- Sounds like the usual British offer: to defend Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian.
-- Reddit posts a map of a roughly equivalent territorial loss from the US to Canada, and asks if Americans would accept it. Response in general: Can our state join Canada too?
-- Zelensky is asked his favorite joke about Putin. He wants so badly to be a comedian in this clip.
-- Russia and Putin make vague nuclear threats but nothing new is said, no new red lines.
-- Let's just forget about what would NATO would do after a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine -- what would Russia do? How would Russian logistics even work around that? Could they even supply their own armies? What if it just didn't explode?
-- Czechia annexes Kaliningrad enclave Královec after "referendum", because why not?
-- Seriously, if they want it, why not. Most countries don't want land with Russians in it, and I'm all for Lake NATO.
-- Ukraine completely destroys 58th Combined Arms Army of Russia
-- Evidence of war crimes is starting to show up. What to do with a pile of gold teeth stolen from victims?
-- Russian Pravda uses image from old version of Europa Universalis IV game to promote annexation of Novorussia. The map shows Russia annexed all of Persia and Manchuria too, which I'm sure their allies appreciated.
-- If they like that game, I'm sure this image is the future plan
-- @elonmusk decided to wander in and tweet an appeasement proposal for Ukraine. Unfortunately, it wasn't successful in distracting from his other embarrassing news, and he decided at long last to buy Twitter for reals this time.
-- Elon is not a Russian apologist, and has had a long twitter beef with the head of the Russian space agency. He is a media whore, though.
-- Actually SpaceX and particularly Starlink has proved very valuable on the battlefield: Ukraine's GIS-based artillery program can hit targets 100 times faster than US forces can.
-- Russian Navy pretends they exist by hanging out with their mate China in American waters
-- Armenia, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan have suspended payment from Russian Mir payment cards. Mir: It's nowhere you want to be.
-- Blast from the past: the original "what air defense doing", Mathias Rust flew a Cessna from Helsinki to land near Red Square in 1987.
-- Belarus is, uh, joining the war? Sometime in winter? I'll believe it when I see it.
I love the irony that Russia will be trying to fight in Russia in the winter... That's like, the number one military mistake according to a Sicilian I once knew. And they're going to do it underequipped. Didn't they ever learn anything from their enemies?
-- Bob
I have been Roland, Beowulf, Achilles, Gilgamesh, Clark Kent, Mary Sue, DJ Croft, Skysaber. I have been
called a hundred names and will be called a thousand more before the sun grows dim and cold....
"The soldiers* being mobilised by Russia are split into two groups. Some are being thrown straight onto the front lines without training in the grand Russian tradition of cannon-fodder.
The rest are being formed into new units. The question is, where are the officers for these new units coming from? The Military Academies. Or, more accurately, the training cadre from the Academies (since the trainees have already been used). So the Russians are stripping the Military Academies of their training staff and closing them down..."
Is Putin trying to destroy the Russian Military? The evidence points to yes.
Perhaps he figures that whoever survives (and didn't surrender to Ukraine and then seek political asylum or emigrate normally) will be able to be assigned there once everything is over? Or perhaps he just doesn't care if he's not going to be the HMIC so he's willing to spend every resource he can scrape up to try to turn things back in his favor, even if that means nothing will be left when he's finally removed.
All the conscripts will achieve is at best to absorb a bullet or two that might otherwise have eliminated someone worthwhile, and at worst, choke Ukrainian resources with their care and feeding requirements.
Families are getting a sheep, and 5 kilos of fish, as payment for being conscripted, as Russian states are running out of cash to pay them.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
(10-05-2022, 07:16 AM)Bob Schroeck Wrote: I love the irony that Russia will be trying to fight in Russia in the winter... That's like, the number one military mistake according to a Sicilian I once knew. And they're going to do it underequipped. Didn't they ever learn anything from their enemies?
This is your reminder that, during the Winter War, Russia send thousands of conscripts to fight a war in the freezing cold of the Finnish forests, with the bulk of the forces drawn from the southern territories of the Soviet Union. Their army was well equipped relative to the Fins, had air support, a large number of tanks, and nowhere near enough training to fight that war, nor a commander capable of executing that war. They only won because Finland lacked the population and material support needed to not get buried under the mountain of Soviet dead.
It's not that they never learn anything from their enemies. It's that they forget what they learned from their own failures.
And Ukraine may have a substantially smaller population than Russia, but it's not nearly as outmatched as Finland was, nor is it lacking in material support from other nations to make up for having recruited nearly a million souls into its army and the economic repercussions thereof and the war in general.
10-08-2022, 12:03 PM (This post was last modified: 10-08-2022, 12:26 PM by Jinx999.)
The damage is:
One side of the road bridge is collapsed.
The other side is warped. They're saying they've opened it - which means they have not had enough time to do a proper assessment. Though this is a case where try it an see what happens would have been reasonable. I don't know if it can take container lorries, let alone tank transporters.
The explosion caught a train carrying fuel, which is either carefully planned or ridiculously lucky. It burned for hours. This means that the tracks themselves are wrecked. What damage the fire did to the concrete structure is unknown. Concrete loses strength above 300C.
I've seen pictures. There was a railing on the side of the tracks that is all bent and twisted (so you can imagine what happened to the tracks with a train on top). There's also one on the bottom of the span which also looks twisted - implying the whole span was covered in burning fuel.
Assessing fire damage on this scale is normally the kind of thing that would take a team of experts months. Or running a train across it and seeing if it collapses.
Edit: Russia is claiming it can start running trains again. This evening (so no proper investigation). Of course, Russia claims a lot of things.
It's definitely been written in a very uplifiting tone for an Infantryman's Primer.
Quote:64. Most importantly. God is with us !
"God leads us, He is our general!" - wrote the great
Suvorov in his book The Science of Victory. Sincere faith in
God, the primacy of the spiritual over the material - this is
the main secret of victories of the commander and his
miracle-god.
"The victory is won not by hands, nor by feet, nor by
the mortal human body, but by the immortal soul, which
rules hands, feet and weapons...", "Without prayer do not
bare arms, do not load guns, do not start anything!", "Pray to
GOD: from HIM victory!" - teaches us Suvorov. (See
Appendix "Prayer of Orthodox warriors before battle",
"Troparion to the Cross and Prayer for the Fatherland",
"Du'a of Orthodox Muslims, which helps to win").
And Alexander Vasilyevich also knew firmly that there
is no death, and death in battle is only a stage on our way to
God.
The trial in war is a kind of purgatory, through which
we purify our souls and gain faith, and God's providence is
to accept our souls or to leave them on the Earth for the
future, known only to Him.
Did somebody just rip off Games Workshop?
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
Russia launched a missile at a Ukrainian powerplant, acting as the main link between Ukraine and the EU power grid.
It's right on the Polish border.
The missile missed.
The missile landed in Poland.
And killed two Polish citizens.
Poland has already gone to Article IV --- consulting all the countries of NATO to see what to do next.
Vast swathes of the commentariate are calling for Article V and a military response.
It's been 108 years since there was this much enthusiasm in Europe for war.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
11-15-2022, 06:20 PM (This post was last modified: 11-15-2022, 06:29 PM by robkelk.)
(11-15-2022, 06:08 PM)Dartz Wrote: Russia launched a missile at a Ukrainian powerplant, acting as the main link between Ukraine and the EU power grid.
It's right on the Polish border.
The missile missed.
The missile landed in Poland.
And killed two Polish citizens.
Poland has already gone to Article IV --- consulting all the countries of NATO to see what to do next.
Vast swathes of the commentariate are calling for Article V and a military response.
It's been 108 years since there was this much enthusiasm in Europe for war.
(11-15-2022, 06:20 PM)robkelk Wrote: EDIT: And if Article V kicks in, then we just might see Poland inviting German tanks to roll across their border. Go figure.
Hans? Are we the Goodies?
It's definitely a missile that missed. It's possible it might've missed because a Ukrainian SAM shot it down. Poland seems happy to give Russian diplomats a kicking since - well - they launched the attacking missile, while Ukraine's missile was defending itself.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
The day before Putin's big Moscow speech, Biden surprises everyone by wandering into Kyiv.
This must've given his Guards an utter apoplexy. Harris was one Russian missile from the White House.
This must've given Republicans an utter apoplexy. Harris was one Russian missile from the White House.
The must've given the Russians a panic attack - could they call off their missile attacks in time before an oops happened.
That's some dark Brandon shit. Like, fite me bro, I'm right here.
President Biden went to Kyiv to meet President Zelensky.
President Trump would've gone to Kiev to meet President Putin.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
02-22-2023, 04:52 PM (This post was last modified: 02-22-2023, 05:25 PM by Dartz.)
365 Days into a 3 Day War
-Did anyone think we would be here at this point. Honestly?
-This was supposed to be a simmering forever war insurgency by now, not a boiling meat-grinder.
-Russia expected Ukraine to tip over like a rotten shed in a strong breeze. (They failed on Day one)
-The 'Collective West' (For want of a better term) seemed to agree, and has been steadily opening the taps as every success has proved Ukraine more and more viable.
-It's a cruelly rational way of providing support, when you think of it. Reinforce success seems to be the rule.
-The 'Perfidious Albion' has proved to be one of Ukraines greatest allies. (For now - they got their reputation for a reason)
-America has supplied a diarrhoettic flood of equipment. Most of it old. (For now - they flip on the breeze with every election)
-Germany has been roundly criticised for not opening the taps fast enough. (Perhaps unfairly, but the perception remains and will remain for a long time)
-Russian remains Ukraines biggest military donor.
-Russian tactics have not really changed since all the good trops got killed, along with those who trained them.
-They win positions simply by sending meat into them until the defenders finally tired and run out of ammunition.
-One group serves as a forlorn hope to run forward and try stun the defenders with grenades and thermobaric weapons.
-For them it's do or die - they'll be executed if they retreat
-Artillery keeps the defenders heads down.
-Small squads run forward with shovels, made of men who have been trained to do nothing but dig - hopefully, eventually, completing a new foxhole or trench that can be used as a launchpad for the next assault.
-The forlorn hope is rarely succesful. The artillery rarely has enough shells to keep the defenders heads down and the diggers make easy targets.
-Even if they are succesful, the death-rate is approaching Great War levels to do it. More often than not, everyone gets slaughtered and they try again.
-After months of pure meatgrinder, Bakhmut still has not fallen to the Russians
-Prigorzhins prize is proving Phyrric, even if it does eventually fall.
-Which it might not - his ongoing criticisms have cost him the favour of the Russian MoD.
-The ammo taps have been turned off. The Russian army has been keeping for itself.
-Is it possible they're running out of shootable ammo?
-Ukrainian soldiers are drowning in spent brass, and having to dig their trenches deeper to compensate.
-There is a real risk of running out of basic ammunition before Russia runs out of bodies.
- It takes the EU ten months to received a bullet after placing the order with the factory.
-Russian soldiers seem to have no sense of self-preservation.
-They drive over the wreckage of tanks and get killed by the same RPG gunner
-They drive around the tank that just exploded due to a mine and get killed
-They wander around, like zombies.
-They just... die
-Artillery and a willingness to just wreck the fuck out of everything remains Russia's biggest advantage.
-Sending advanced guided weapons against apartment blocks and civlian infrastructure in terror attacks.
-Because terror-bombing Civilians has proven to be so effective in the past. It just pisses them off.
-And it just expends weapons Russia may not have the ability to replace.
-At one point a nuclear missile was launched
-Whether a mistake, a decoy, or a reminder that they work isn't known.
-Fortunately, the warhead was a concrete block and not an actual nuclear weapon.
-Also - less advanced suicide drones have purchased from Iran to attack power and economic targets.
-Some loitering drones used to attack tanks.
-German-supplied air defenses are proving effective against Iranian drones.
- A big Russian Push has been expected in time for the 1st anniversary of the war.
- With what?
- Will China start to supply new toys to Russia?
- Or will they keep them for the coming invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
- There're suggestions China may be about to shit a Peace Plan out and has been talking to people.
- Any Russian offensive now will likely drown in mud. Just like last year.
- By the time they can go, they'll be facing upskilled, freshly trained and well rested Ukrainian troops with a massive equipment advantage.
- It seems Ukraine has been able to properly rotate, train and rest its units through ongoing defensive actions.
- So it turns out the last two weeks were the 'Big Push'
-EU Aid now to include ACTUAL tanks and not just IFV's.
-The Leopards have been unleased - both the original 1 (If they can find anyone who remembers how to drive them) and the more modern 2.
-Ukrainians. "It's like driving a Mercedes".
-A few Challengers are being sent from the UK
-Is it like driving a Morris Marina?
-America is to produce a special variant of the Abrams without the funky armour - because they will be attacked and destroyed and this has been a very publically videod war.
- Some new-build mobile command vehicles produced in Ukraine suggests a Big Push may be planned for when the toys arrive.
-Bradleys are already on the way
-The Germans are sending armoured bridges.
-This is going to look like 73 Easting all over again.
-Even older Western equipment is proving to be incredibly effective. Quality being a quantity all of its own.
-The question of whether fighter aircraft are to be supplied to Ukraine still remains.
-This isn't really an air war.
-Surface to air missiles have turned the skies into a no-mans land.
-President Biden Visited Kyiv to speak with President Zelensky.
-Russia informed hours before. Either to prevent an inadvertant missile attack, or daring them to try.
-In an alternate skein of History, President Trump visits Kiev to speak with President Putin.
-You know it would've worked out that way.
-Republicans predictably annoyed.
-Russia may have attempted an ICBM test
-It may have failed.
-The EU sanctions noose continues to tighten. Toilets are now among the sanctioned items list.
-The EU is slowly tightening the screws - as much as is possible with that Scutter-for-brains from Hungary spoilering it all.
-Slovakian foreign Minister tells him to fuck off.
-To Macron is a new verb in Ukraine. To take the middle route. To Vascillate. To 'Both sides have valid points'.
-EU forcing down price of Russian oil. It still has massive buying power.
-Russia thought it had a monopoly. The EU thought it had a monopsony.
-LNG tankers and a mild winter have given the EU the breathing space it needed. Fuel prices are almost back to normal.
-Something positive from Global Warming?
-The EU is back to its Herding Cats ways because - that's what it is at the end of the day.
-NATO countries are sending training cadres
-At time of writing, even Ireland is considering sending a training cadre of EoD specialists
-Homeless man in EU Parliament continues to critise the war and how the EU is prolonging it by supporting Ukraine.
-At least some Members of the EU Parliament have been funded by Russian-linked entities.
-We all know who they are
-The far right have reared their ugly head in Ireland. It's no longer limited to the idiots with anime avatars
-They've been blocking rush hour traffic in their dozens.
-Counter protests last weekend numbered in the thousands
-It's only a matter of time before they're ground beneath the wheels of history. Or an irate commuter.
-There is a serious problem finding accomodation for refugees.
-Tents have been used. Along with refit conference centres.
-The government have been slow paying hotels and resorts that've been housing them over a year.
-Par for the course. Do not attribute to malice what can be assigned to feckless incompetence.
-Belarus continues its 'Will they, wont they' approach to war
-They've said they'll join in only if they're attacked.
-Which everyone assumes will be an opening to a False flag in the near future.
-It's forcing Ukraine to guard the borders, just in case.
-Belarus was supposed to be nothing more than another Russian Republic by 2030
-Is Lukashenko the only dictator who'd rather serve in hell, than reign in the malebolges?
-Moldova has found evidence of a pro-Russian conspiracy to launch a coup and destabilise the government.
-A similar attempt in the US three years ago failed, but has left a lingering legacy and may not have been truly defeated.
-All Russia has to do is hold out until the next election.
-Russian troll farms are proving dangerous.
-Never before have people been able to take a peak at the horrors of war live and unfiltered.
-From day one, the war has been livestreamed across a thousand tik-toks. The first attacks were reported as traffic jams on google maps.
-One Russian Soldier is shot to death on the shitter. His wish for a magazine is answered in the cruellest way possible.
-A squad of Russians try to surrender. The last one has second thoughts and comes out fighting. He gets himself and his friends killed.
-One Ukrainian soldier in a trench. Fights like a CoD protagonist, downing a tank(fite-me) and half a dozen cannon-fodder mercenaries while his scared-stiff mate feeds him reloaded weapons from the safety of cover.
-Russian soldier kicked out of trenches. Ukrainian drone leads him to safety. His former friends get shelled.
-Russians soldiers writhing in agony drown face down in the slime at the bottom of their trench, too wounded to roll over and save themselves.
-So many crawling injured.
-Bakhmut looks like World War 1, sepia-toned with mud. And bodies.
-Russia insists American claims of crimes against Humanity are only meant to demonise it.
-With over 30,000 documented incidents of Russian warcrimes. If you didn't want to be demonised as a war criminal you shouldn't have done the war crimes.
-Wagner troopers may be surprised to find that - as mercenaries - technically they have minimal protections under the laws of war.
-Untangling this may keep the lads at The Hague employed for decades to come.
-Dail Eireann is hosting an exhibition of photographs taken in Bucha by Reuters journalists.
-School tours visit the building daily.
---------------------------------
What does endgame look like?
-A Maximal Ukraine victory involves a restoration of the former borders - from the 1990's. This may be unlikely, but not impossible. This'll put the bear back in its box for some time. Russia is ended as a world power. Putin likely goes out the window. China's a little more concerned about it's Taiwan plans. The EU can act smug. Western Weapon sales are through the roof. This may onky be likely if it gets done before America changes presidents. Russia will not be a pleasant place to live, and being Russian in 2025 will be something like being German in 1925.
-A Maximal Russian victory would've been everything falling over after three days and Europe going 'Fuck it'. This is no longer possible.
- A 'Tolerable' Russian Victory might be freezing the lines as they are today and drawing a new boarder. Wonder if this is what the Chinese peace plan is. The EU will look weak. America will just look flakey - especially if this happens after a change in Presidents. China's standing in the world goes up. Taiwan's about to get fucked. Putin secures his position. Probably unlikely. (An armistice for ten years ending)
- An unpallatable peace for all, might be the 2014 borders. Once wonders if this is where western support would begin to peter out. This might also be the Chinese plan Everyone has bled white, nothing has been gained. Politicians everywhere get crucified over the pointlessness of it all. All the material sent to war. All the money. All the bodies. Why did anyone bother? Unfinished business still lingers. China still invades Taiwan. Putin likely goes out the window and gets replaced by a loon. (Another armistice for ten years ending.)
- An imposed Ukrainian victory might be something between the 2014 borders and the original border. Maybe loosing Crimea or something. It's a dissatisfactory ending, which may allow Putin to retain some face, and Europe to retain some face and everyone to be glad that we now have peace in our time and Macron to gloat about how right he is. The sense of unfinished business still looms - and Ukraine will feel betrayed to the point that pro-Russian forces might start to use it as a 'Stab in the Back' myth. Putin may still go out the window. Eventually, countries will start dealing with Russia again, when the cost of weathering public outrage is outweighed by the opportunity for profit.
-In reality, the negotiations will probably become a trade of economic access and Hague pardons, for land, war criminals and reparations, and hinge on whatever the Ukrainian government can sell to its population.
-An Atomic Peace. Putin pushes the button (Attempt to) fry Kyiv as a demonstration of power and frustration. America and NATO retaliate conventionally to prove they don't need to go nuclear to utterly fuck 'em up. Putin sits back on his nuclear arsenal, knowing that to use them would be to invite an even greater retaliation and the end of his rule. He gets launched out a window anyway because he tried to start a Global Thermonuclear War and that is very bad for the grafters. Ukraine likely gets back to its 1990's borders, but it's not a victory of any sort.
-A peace of the chirping cockroaches. Putin pushes the button and fries Kyiv as a demonstration of power and frustration. America retaliates conventionally by sledghammering Russian forces to prove it doesn't need nukes to fuck 'em up. Russia retaliates on NATO nuclearly becuase it has fuckall left and can't back down now because it will be ENDED as a world power. NATO then frobs the knob because Fuck You. Global Thermonuclear holocaust. Unlikely - but not to the point that the possibility isn't affecting decision makers.
-It is the 21st century. For more than 2 Decades Vladimir Putin has ruled immoveable from his Golden throne. He is master of Russia by the apathy of millions and the master of a millions by the blight of propeganda. He is a rotting carcass writhing with cancer, sustained by the powers of chemotherapy and kleptomania. He is the ruler of a carrion-state for whome a thousand souls are sacrificed daily so that it may never truly die. To be a Russian in such times is to be one amongst declining millions. It is to live in the corruptest and most criminal regime imaginable. These are the tales of those times. Forget the power of democracy and truth, for so much has been forgotten, never to be re-learned. Forget the promise of peace and prosperity, for in the grim darkness of the near future there is only war. There is no peace amongst the nations, only an eternity of carnage and slaughter, and the laughter of a thirsting military industrial complex. The Forever War Ending, with larged parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine left a Red-Zone moonscape for generations to come, a steadily simmering conflict fuelled by the competing military-industrial complexes of China, Europe and the US that cannot truly overmatch the other for fear of triggering the Final War ending. Taiwan still fucked because America's focused elsewhere. Whatever victory, for anyone, is Phyrric. Any recovery may take decades.
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
After a few years in hell, Putin was granted a day on Earth. Eagerly he went back to Moskva, strolling along the Red Square and stood by a coffee kiosk. He asked the clerk:
"Is Donbass ours?"
The clerk, confused: "Yes it's always been ours."
"And Kiev too?"
"Of course!"
"Wonderful! It's great news! And how much for this coffee?"
"50 hryvnia."
I love the smell of rotaries in the morning. You know one time, I got to work early, before the rush hour. I walked through the empty carpark, I didn't see one bloody Prius or Golf. And that smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole carpark, smelled like.... ....speed.
