Irish oddsmaker gives 33% chance Trump will be impeached

[robkelk]

AP: Are the Democrats starting impeachment, or not?

[Rajvik]

As the article says to finish the first paragraph, Sort of, and not really.

They have nothing but rumors, which Clinton and the DNC either started or paid for, and the promises they made in 2018. Meanwhile their own chickens are coming home to roost in the investigation into the repeatedly falsified statements to a FISA court and the illegal wiretapping of Trump Tower. Add on top of that the example of 98 and they are so screwed it is laughable

[Norgarth]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

[Matrix Dragon]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

Don't worry, the racist white supremacists he's spent years lying out his asshole to and claiming there's an evil government conspiracy to destroy him are more than ready to start killing mexicans when the time comes. Or sooner.

[Norgarth]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

Don't worry, the racist white supremacists he's spent years lying out his asshole to and claiming there's an evil government conspiracy to destroy him are more than ready to start killing mexicans when the time comes. Or sooner.

Yeah, as a Canadian, I won't be suprised to see a 2nd US Civil War in my lifetime, this time Republicans vs Democrats.

No matter who ends up President, there'll be around 20% of the population that will consider them the spawn of Satan based just on their party.

[Matrix Dragon]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

Don't worry, the racist white supremacists he's spent years lying out his asshole to and claiming there's an evil government conspiracy to destroy him are more than ready to start killing mexicans when the time comes. Or sooner.

Yeah, as a Canadian, I won't be suprised to see a 2nd US Civil War in my lifetime, this time Republicans vs Democrats.

No matter who ends up President, there'll be around 20% of the population that will consider them the spawn of Satan based just on their party.

And decades of gun cultism all around and the approach of sensationalizing mass shooters.

[robkelk]

As the article says to finish the first paragraph, Sort of, and not really.

They have nothing but rumors, ...

That statement is obviously and blatantly false. Even the unredacted parts of the Mueller report clearly show how much rock-solid evidence exists. And there was no illegal wiretapping of Trump Tower.

I'm not in a forgiving mood at the moment. Either you're purposefully lying to us, or you're a complete idiot who refuses to think for himself. Whichever it is, it's time for you to go into my killfile.

[Labster]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

Don't worry, the racist white supremacists he's spent years lying out his asshole to and claiming there's an evil government conspiracy to destroy him are more than ready to start killing mexicans when the time comes. Or sooner.

Yeah, as a Canadian, I won't be suprised to see a 2nd US Civil War in my lifetime, this time Republicans vs Democrats.

No matter who ends up President, there'll be around 20% of the population that will consider them the spawn of Satan based just on their party.

Can California officially surrender to you guys?  I don't think we'll have any problem adding French to the road signs and poutine to the menus.

[robkelk]

Besides, in a couple months, Trump may be (hopefully) voted out and there won't be a need for the time and expense of an impeachment trial.

Don't worry, the racist white supremacists he's spent years lying out his asshole to and claiming there's an evil government conspiracy to destroy him are more than ready to start killing mexicans when the time comes. Or sooner.

Yeah, as a Canadian, I won't be suprised to see a 2nd US Civil War in my lifetime, this time Republicans vs Democrats.

No matter who ends up President, there'll be around 20% of the population that will consider them the spawn of Satan based just on their party.

Can California officially surrender to you guys?  I don't think we'll have any problem adding French to the road signs and poutine to the menus.

We'd love to have a warm place to spend winters. Just be prepared for your taxes to go up in order to pay for healthcare.

[hazard]

We'd love to have a warm place to spend winters. Just be prepared for your taxes to go up in order to pay for healthcare.

And overall healthcare expenses to go down.

If singlepayer healthcare systems are good at anything, it's suppressing costs.

[Pyeknu]

LOL! It'll be the USC (United States of Canada) versus Jesusland again!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesusland_map

[robkelk]

So... On September 14, the Impeach-O-Meter was sitting at 30%.

This weekend, it's gone up to 89% - the first time it's ever passed the line marked "Oh, &$@!!!". And it was set by the executive editor of Slate - an online news analysis site known for presenting contrarian views.

There was a mention of the possibility of maybe needing a "Trial-by-the-Senate-O-Meter" to replace the Impeach-O-Meter.

[robkelk]

Impeach-o-Meter's back down to 50%.

This means it's a coin-toss...

[Labster]

Well, I hope Dartz took the bet we'd have an impeachment trial, because that's all but certain by this point. I think "how many articles of impeachment" would be interesting to bet on, though. Lots of Democrats want to bring the whole laundry list of sins, real and imagined, while others want to present as clear a case as possible with only one article.

[Black Aeronaut]

I still think they should just throw the whole book at him. With how blatant he's been about his activities, I'd be appalled if not a single one stuck.

[classicdrogn]

All it takes is one, and all the other material collected can still be used if criminal charges are then laid. Focusing on just one or two really goddamn solid things and getting them absolutely airtight may work better than a blizzard of them that his supporters can brush aside by claiming bias, fabrication, and the rest of the usual pack of excuses.

[Matrix Dragon]

It might take more than a few charges. I mean, it's going to take a lot being aired in public, which the actual impeachment trial will be, to convince the Republicans that continuing to support your monster of a president is a doomed endeavor. Even then, some of them will likely refuse to let go and vote not guilty no matter what.

[hazard]

And hopefully those fools will be ousted by the next election, if not recalled, Matrix.

[robkelk]

May as well mention this, even if it shouldn't be a surprise to anybody:

The Impeach-O-Meter has hit 95%

Dartz, I hope you took that 2:1 odds bet... because now it's 1:19.

[Labster]

If I could get 1:19 odds, I'd put a ton of money on it because it looks like a sure thing to me. Maybe if someone explain to me the 5% chance that he won't be impeached by the House of Representatives? Is that some sort of actuarial risk that he dies or is incapacitated? Sure it can't be that high in the next year, right? We only have 4 of 44 presidents assassinated, which is a 9% risk, but annualized that's only only a 1.8% risk per year. And doing a quick actuarial, risk of death is like 3.6% per year for a 70 year old male never-smoker.

Actually, maybe 95% is about right.

[Dartz]

That's odds on. You put 19 on the bet you get a Euro back if it wins it's such a sure thing

[Rajvik]

is he taking book on whether the impeachment succeeds or not yet?

sorry, but with the way the 2018 election cycle went, articles of impeachment were going to get passed, it was a given. The question really is, will they succeed and oust him from office, or will they fail and cause him to definitely be re-elected

[Jinx999]

is he taking book on whether the impeachment succeeds or not yet?

sorry, but with the way the 2018 election cycle went, articles of impeachment were going to get passed, it was a given. The question really is, will they succeed and oust him from office, or will they fail and cause him to definitely be re-elected

At a guess, they're planning to time things so that it goes on until the election with a steady drip of Trumpism during campaigning until he gets voted out of office. This would, however, require a careful touch.

[robkelk]

sorry, but with the way the 2018 election cycle went, articles of impeachment were going to get passed, it was a given. The question really is, will they succeed and oust him from office, or will they fail and cause him to definitely be re-elected

History shows that an impeachment, even if it doesn't lead to a trial in the Senate, is enough to swing the White House to the other party. That's how the Republicans took the Presidency in 2000, after all.

[Black Aeronaut]

And besides, there are a lot of the Republican Senators who are absolutely disgusted by the turn things took in Syria. Trump lost a lot of good will, there.