Brexit or Breaksit?

[Labster]

After fifty failed votes to repeal Obamacare in the US, I can't exactly point fingers. US Republicans are still trying to annul the law even after getting trounced on it in the last election. Maybe this kind of repeat stupidity is a conservative disease.

And what MP is going to change their vote now? "Well, I voted no the last 3 times because no deal is better than a bad deal, but I voted yes the fourth time because I just wanted the mess to be over so I could get on with my life. Vote for me!"

Can the Queen still dissolve Parliament and call new elections? It's starting to look like a reasonable option. May's Government is doing their level best to make dictatorial powers look attractive.

[Dartz]

I'd say whatever meetings there are between the pair involved Lizzie and her Corgies just sitting there and staring without saying a word. Just staring and sipping tea in a sort of 'How dare you, I wish I could have you hung drawn and quartered still' type manner. Whatever Lizzie can do about it, I don't know. Thus far she's been remarkably quiet and distant from the process. Probably to avoid alienating the half of the country likely to disagree with her whatever she does...

I think the difference is though.... the Obamacare votes were basically theatre, either to be seen to be trying to do something, or to block anything else from being done. This is a shitshow precisely because it's plainly clear it's not going to pass, but they're still trying anyway. Even if the face of a national crisis.

I don't think there really is an American analogue.

And what MP is going to change their vote now?

If they keep going at the current rate it'll pass by 20 on vote 4. It's as much a slow realisation that there might not be any other alternative ( save for ending it), and getting comfortable with the knowledge that Britain has moved from term-setter, to term accepter. It must take what it's been given and - thus far, the EU have been incredibly generous. Given space to sort things out - agree to negotiate political declarations and otherwise not turning the screw the same way Britain itself has done how many times over?

In order to make it explicitly clear that every single consequence for Brexit can be laid solely at the door of 10 Downing street. There is No stab in the back. It is all your own fault.


Meanwhile I'm just sitting here in a Balaclava listening to rebel songs.

[Black Aeronaut]

I think the difference is though....  the Obamacare votes were basically theatre, either to be seen to be trying to do something, or to block anything else from being done. This is a shitshow precisely because it's plainly clear it's not going to pass, but they're still trying anyway. Even if the face of a national crisis.

I don't think there really is an American analogue.

Indeed.  This would be like if we decided to cut all alltrade (and I mean ALL trade) and all treaties with the byline of "America for Americans" bullshit, and expected everything to just fine.

[classicdrogn]

Well, except for the US having a fair bit more self-sufficiency, or at least potential for it if native resources were tapped instead of cheaper imports, than the much smaller Britain. It wouldn't be a fun time and there are some things with no local source or reasonable substitutes, but there would at least be the possibility of eventually getting back on an even footing rather than breaking down to the point of accepting what was offered or outright collapse. Dartz mentioned that Britain is for the most part a major importer of food, and there's little that will ensure major social disruptions like people suddenly discovering they can't put a meal on their table.

[Labster]

I don't think there really is an American analogue.

But according to American news everything in the world is really about the United States. That's something all the networks agree about.

Actually Dartz/BA it would be similar to Texas secession ideas that pop up occasionally. Sure, they can do it, but what then? Who do they trade with? The internationalist-corporatist regime already won back in '89-'93, and you can't really opt out unless you're Kim Jong Un or apparently Theresa May.

[robkelk]

Can the Queen still dissolve Parliament and call new elections?  It's starting to look like a reasonable option.  May's Government is doing their level best to make dictatorial powers look attractive.

The Sovereign is free to dissolve Parliament on the advice of the Prime Minister.

That's the dirty little secret behind constitutional Parliamentary democracies: once somebody's been elected the leader of a majority party that votes along the party line, the Prime Minister pretty much is a dictator. Constrained by the constitution (written or unwritten) and the rule of law, of course, but that's all the constraints that there are on a PM. (At least in Canada, the party leader actually has to have a seat in the House of Commons before being allowed to become PM... but there's always somebody who's willing to give up a "safe" seat in exchange for a plum political appointment.)

If we didn't have political parties, that would be different. But there's that magic word "if".

[Dartz]

Can the Queen still dissolve Parliament and call new elections?  It's starting to look like a reasonable option.  May's Government is doing their level best to make dictatorial powers look attractive.

The Sovereign is free to dissolve Parliament on the advice of the Prime Minister.

That's the dirty little secret behind constitutional Parliamentary democracies: once somebody's been elected the leader of a majority party that votes along the party line, the Prime Minister pretty much is a dictator. Constrained by the constitution (written or unwritten) and the rule of law, of course, but that's all the constraints that there are on a PM. (At least in Canada, the party leader actually has to have a seat in the House of Commons before being allowed to become PM... but there's always somebody who's willing to give up a "safe" seat in exchange for a plum political appointment.)

If we didn't have political parties, that would be different. But there's that magic word "if".

The President basically replaced the Queen here for that role. 90% of the President's powers are 'on the advice of government' to avoid a dictatorship. The subtle difference between us and the UK is that we have multi-seat constituencies, and use a proportional represenation system - so there're a lot more parties, and a lot more coalition governments.

The current Government is technically a minority government - but both major political parties are in an agreement not to trigger a general election until the Brexit crisis is past to let the State get through it. There've been things that should've toppled the government - but it's clung on to get past the big difficulty.

Y'know, arguably how Brexit should've been done by the UK.

A lot of demestic policies have been an utter shitshow - with a housing/homeless crisis, a healthcare crisis, a massive boondoggle and a general sense of everything being a PR Potemkin village - but foreign policy has been good.

I think Australia uses a similar method where everyone justs writes 1,2,3,4....n from top to bottom in the boxes. So whomever decides the order on the paper decides the winner....

[Norgarth]

just saw this on Sufficient Velocity:
https://i.postimg.cc/HkvCFbdt/55726307-1...1072-n.jpg

[Labster]

The Idiot Ball involves doing something utterly braindead for no real reason. This happens in real life more than anyone would like to admit.

So today was another day of Parliament agreeing not to agree to any option, though the proposal for the UK to become the next Norway was only 3 votes short of a majority with a lot of abstentions.  I guess that's great if you like following all the EU rules, but also having no say in what those rules are. Also, some naked people showed up in the gallery to protest something or other; this was hardly noticed because the entire Cabinet has had No Clothes for quite some time.

[Black Aeronaut]

I have no words for this...

Can someone tell me how illegal this is over yonder? Because here in the USA, that counts as terrorism.

[hazard]

Note sure about Dutch law, but I think this would fall under terrorism here as well, if of an unusually non-violent sort.

[classicdrogn]

SO, a week to go and still nothing solid in terms of a plan, any plan at all. Merkel was talking about the need to avoid a hard border in the Irelands, "Where there's a will there's a way," but if the parties involved had the political will they'd have found a way long ago ... and of course Parliament got flooded out by decaying infrastructure in their building. If that isn't the perfect metaphor! It truly takes a ship of fools to sink while on dry land.

[Rajvik]

And May gets another extension according to the Fox News Ticker.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic but I doubt the extra two and a half months are going to help

[Matrix Dragon]

It's been what, three years to not come up with even an idea of a plan?

[classicdrogn]

The problem was never having a clear direction go go in the first place, just "out of the EU," like a nervous kid running away from a scary dude on the street. (Well, except for the EU being the Mister Rodgers of dudes on the street...) Looked at in that light, it's no surprise if they keep tripping over their feet and end up in a dead end alley.

[Bob Schroeck]

According to the news I heard on the way into work, the extension's all the way until Halloween... a bit more than two and a half months.

[hazard]

If it is, Britain has to participate in the EU elections.

[Rajvik]

I might have misread, but the line I read said June 30, somebody is wrong. Anyone able to see who?

[Dartz]

Both are correct.

If the UK doesn't participate in the elections they have to leave - as they physically can't be in the EU without having politicians in the EU. The EU's rules won't allow it. Potentially, anything passed by the EU parliament would be open to legal challenge as invalid. Effectivewly, not holding elections is a choice to leave.

If they do participate, they can stay until Halloween, with their full handful of political types in what is, effectively, a window-seat position. Some have threatened to use it as a screaming Trojan horse to disrupt the EU from the inside - but Nigel Farage has been screeching for years already with no change. Still, it would be an extraordinariy show of diplomatic bad faith to do so.

Importantly - the door is open. The ball firmly in Westminster's court.

If the UK wants to leave, it can. If it wants to stay and cancel it, it can. The problem is, Westminster can't figure out what the fuck it wants, or how it wants to do it, and has only just now started figuring that out a week

The EU is refusing to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. Westminster still hasn't said what changes they would want- just that they don't want it. Westminster still may not have figured out that negotiations do not result in you getting everything you want - especially when you're the weakest Power on the table. The EU has all the rapport de force and is playing it the same way the side will overwhelming force plays it - the big stick is just not being shown simply because using it will be a rallying cry.

The EU's big game is being seen to be blameless in the clusterfuck. The rules are the rules, the process is bureaucratic rather than political - all the problems are on the UK's End. The one thing they don't want is a stab-in-the-back meme.

[Epsilon]

This is the Brexit that never ends...
It just goes on and on my friends...
Some people voted for it not knowing what it was...
And they'll debate it now and forever just because...

[Valles]

Well, either way, I'm glad. I didn't want to see an ally crash and burn on my fucking birthday of all times.

[robkelk]

It's going to be somebody's birthday when it happens...

[classicdrogn]

Around twenty million somebodies', statistically speaking.Still, I understand the sentiment.

[DHBirr]

It's going to be somebody's birthday when it happens...

For Vladimir Putin, it'll be his birthday and Christmas put together.  Anything that damages the West's ability to hold together against him ... especially if "Farage of the B.U.F.," as I think of him, is able to do some more screaming disruption.
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I'm a very forgiving person ... on Lord Vader's terms.  "Apology accepted, Captain."

[classicdrogn]

At this rate they will, as promised, bury us.