Brexit or Breaksit?

[Skyfire2020]

I like reading horoscopes and predictions.  One of the books I read is Old Moore's Almanack and the 2019 edition suddenly seems to make a lot more sense in its political predictions for October and November.  

October (Page 46)
"The UK government is involved in a spate of foreign policy problems, finding its ambitions blocked at every turn."
"New border controls will cause problems for marketers."
"Headlines will announce that nobody could have predicted this month's events."

November (P47)
"In London, parliament is in turmoil and the government will lose significant votes and elections."
"Renewed turmoil hits the UK Government, and there is a high probability of a leadership contest and the threat of an early general election."

Of course this is only 1 prediction and the future isn't set in stone but we may yet face "Interesting times".  And if anyone is interested Amazon (both Uk and US sites) sells the book.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Moores-Almanac-...214&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Moores-Almanac-FR...488&sr=8-1

Mark

[Norgarth]

This video is poking fun at the Brit government, so this seemed to be the right place to post it.

[hazard]

Link broken Norgarth.

[Labster]

I'm sure the video really exists, it's just being kept at the same location as Britain's Brexit counteroffer.

[classicdrogn]

So secret that not only does the left hand not know what the right is doing, but the right had was amputated and its owner has spent the last four years as a fugitive?

[classicdrogn]

So apparently the Conservativve Party took a fucking hammering in Thursday's UK elections, and Labour didn't do too well either, both losing seats to what the AP story I read called pro-EU moderates, though I don't recall the party name. Any sign that the clucks in charge are going to get a fucking clue and/or pull their thumbs out and do something? Anything?

[SilverFang01]

Not only in the UK. In Spain the conservatives took a drubbing, even in their strongholds.

[Labster]

The Liberal Democrats picked up most of the seats. Jeremy Corbyn's euroskepicism and the troubles within the party on antisemitism are probably why Labour couldn't capitalize on the complete dysfunction on the Tory side. Apparently the current plan is to come up with a Conservative-Labour agreement on a soft Brexit before the wolves make it to No. 10, but given that we have a Parliament that can't even agree to disagree, I wouldn't expect much.

No elections in Scotland, but there might be one soon: A recent poll put Scottish independence at 49%.

[robkelk]

No elections in Scotland, but there might be one soon: A recent poll put Scottish independence at 49%.

Speaking as somebody who saw similar numbers before both Quebec independence referenda, the only poll that counts there is the one at the ballot box.

[Labster]

If you haven't been keeping up, the last couple of weeks where Labour and Conservatives tried to negotiate a bipartisan Brexit ended in agreeing to disagree.  In addition, the disagreement included May and Corbyn blaming each other for the failure of the talks.

This whole effort went unnoticed on this board, presumably because everyone knew at the outset that failure was all but inevitable.  But hey, at least they "tried".

Next steps: Yet Another vote on May's Brexit plan, the one that keeps failing. to be voted on just before summer vacation.  Tories are thinking about changing their rules to allow another party no confidence vote.  Lemming Day remains at 31 October.

[Dartz]

They act like Europe is the evil empire for refusing to give them everything they want on leaving - while failing to acknowledge that they have no idea what the fuck they want - and that, quite frankly, when placed in a similar situation the UK's first response has always involved a massacre or two. Or three. Before finally just getting bored with it and going 'These are the terms you will accept, now piss off'.

Europe's big issue right now - and it's something the governments can't seem to understand - is that people don't live according to statistics. As much as the numbers say GDP is up, unemployment is down and all that, it's altogether a better economy. But it isn't - when the cost of living is skyrocketing, the housing market and rental market is collapsing, and the margin between living securely and being under constant week-to-week threat is growing tighter and tighter.

What's pissing people off is that governments don't seem to get that one simple fact. What matters is the topline numbers.

But in a lot of ways it's like paint on the rust. It's the polished veneer on a rotten table. It's a pair of 90 euro Beats headphones. Sure it looks great but underneath the whole thing is cracked, rotted and made of plastic cheese with lead weights to make you think it's 'quality'.

It's like the frame of a car. It's rusted through and utterly, structurally fucked to the point where the only thing holding it straight is the roof and the driveshaft, but it's been patched and painted and the NCT man cant see it under the plastic guards so the NCT man gives it the roadworthy tick and it drives off for another year.

There's no way anyone can afford to fix it, but it still looks good and shiny on the surface, keeps up appearrances and so long as you don't hit a pothole too hard it'll be grand.

Everyone is misereable. Everyone is stressed. Every bit of value is being squeezed from your life, while nothing is coming back.

[Labster]

Look, all they want in the UK is free flow of goods, no EU regulations or tariffs on those goods, no immigrants from shithole countries (including Syria, Poland), free flow of English citizens across the border, the ability to act as Europe's offshore bank and tax haven, to be in the common market with different rules, and to keep EU goods out of Britain unless people really want them. Is that too much to ask?

[robkelk]

Look, all they want in the UK is free flow of goods, ... and to keep EU goods out of Britain unless people really want them. Is that too much to ask?

Ah, yes: doublethink.

[Black Aeronaut]

They thought the day would never come, and yet, here we are.

[Epsilon]

What's pissing people off is that governments don't seem to get that one simple fact. What matters is the topline numbers.

Well, what do you expect? In capitalism the only numbers that matter are the topline ones because those who own all the things benefit the higher those numbers go.

Look, all they want in the UK is free flow of goods, ... and to keep EU goods out of Britain unless people really want them. Is that too much to ask?

Ah, yes: doublethink.

No, you don't understand, "free flow of goods" is code for "You don't tax or tariff our goods but we can tax and tariff your goods. That's the way trade works, right? Well, it's the way trade worked when the alternative was a royal army division of two burning down your city.

And let's face it. The people in favor of Brexit are fans of the Empire.

[robkelk]

British PM Theresa May says she'll resign on June 7

I'm surprised she lasted this long, actually. There was no way for her to get people to agree to a deal on Brexit, and Brexit kept her from accomplishing anything else.

Now what? That depends on who takes over.

She'll step down with her central pledges — to lead the United Kingdom out of the bloc and heal its divisions — unfulfilled.

Whoever takes over will have to carry out both pledges. (Unless there's a second referendum that gives them a way out of leaving.) How they're fulfilled is the question.

[hazard]

Only if they're also Conservatives, which is not necessarily guaranteed.

It's extremely likely, but not guaranteed.

[Bob Schroeck]

So... come June it'll no longer be May.

<rimshot>

[Jinx999]

So... come June it'll no longer be May.

<rimshot>

It's not a matter of May, it's a matter of Can't.

[classicdrogn]

Anyone running whose name is trimmable to Will? That would be hilarious.

[Labster]

Anyone running whose name is trimmable to Will? That would be hilarious.

I don't think that the Tories have time to do any good Will hunting.

So... come June it'll no longer be May.

<rimshot>

It's the end of March. Britain is already longing for June 1st because at least then they can be sure it'll be the end of May.

The thing about a trainwreck is that because of the rails, you already know how it's going to end far in advance.  It's simply a matter of finding out what the damage will be.

[Dartz]

...and setting up the camera's in advance to get some good stuff for social media.


That said - I find it hard pressed to think of anyone who could possibly be better.

[Matrix Dragon]

It's almost certainly going to be Boris Fucking Johnson, Trumps Brother From Another Dumpster. This is going to be an even bigger trainwreck.

[Labster]

Meanwhile, in the EU Parliament elections...

First of all, it turns out that while populists and far right parties made some gains, so did leftist parties and the Greens.  Just like in the U.S., coalitions fall apart, the center does not hold power.  But it's happening much slower, though it's unclear what change is really going to happen.  Certainly, it looks like a mandate for change, but it's hard to say what exactly.

But, getting back the the original topic of Brexitation, the two major parties in the U.K. both got completely crushed.  So while they hold 86% of seats in the House of Commons, Labor and Conservatives together only got 23% of the vote (and 19% of the seats).  The best showing was by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party (yes, the real name), but anti-Brexit parties got more votes at 40%.

So the end result is, haha, more chaos!  No major party in Parliament can claim anything like a mandate to do anything, the people hate what they are doing, and want someone else to resolve this Brexit mess differently.  Um, okay.  Under normal circumstances landslides like this would cause the complete collapse of government, but that ship already sailed months ago and Commons didn't seem to notice.

[Dartz]

Boriis Johnson looks like the next PM.

This is the fellow who think's it's a great idea to force Brexit by poroguing Parliament so that Britain crashes out of the EU. Which is a bit like, y'know, refusing to land an airliner even when it's well within your power to do so....

The upshot is, it's more likely to lead to a hung parliament.

The downside of this is that it doesn't mean what most of the British public thinks it does.