Brexit or Breaksit?

[Labster]

Keep Triple Posting. You get better news on this than I do.

Sometimes it's nice to write these powers down somewhere, like when the Dail can be dissolved. The UK may want to consider that sometime before Nigel Farage starts Parliament on fire so Boris can be Führer. (I mean, you can have issues with Varadkar, but at least the guy doesn't still think it's a good idea to raise the Irish people as livestock, you know?)

The thing that worries me is how bad things have already gotten. Everyone seems to expect that the army will be needed at the Irish border except Government, which seems like willful blindness to facts. Everything will be good, just trust our plan which we're not telling you because it's actually No Deal. Inside the UK its no better as Boris seems to want to tell his own party to piss off. People should be stocking up on food, medicine, and V for Vendetta masks.

The populists worldwide have already done so much damage to the social fabric that we're already getting little outbreaks of violence. I'm afraid its only going to get worse before it gets better.

[robkelk]

Even I can tell that, if the army is deployed along the Irish border, The Troubles start up again. I think.

[classicdrogn]

I know it was mentioned as a possibility for Scotland to leave the UK and enter the EU on their own, might Northern Ireland look at that as an option as well, depending on exactly how troublesome (hopefully not returning to a capital T) the whole affair becomes?

[Labster]

Caveat: Dartz will know way more than me.

There might -- and I emphasize "might" because I'm kinda talking out my ass here -- be a narrow possibility that Ulster could swear allegiance to the Scottish Crown rather than the English one and somehow rejoin the EU without upsetting the balance between Catholics and Protestants too much.  But this seems extremely low probability, even among the low probability Brexit outcomes one of which we already know must happen.

As I understand it, the crux of the Good Friday Agreement as it works in practice is that people pretty much agree to let each other live -- not judge each other based on how much they like English culture or Irish culture.  This is already eroding because some people feel like the English betrayed them once again.  If Northern Ireland were to secede, the other side would take it as a betrayal.  People with an English culture would suddenly find themselves closer to Poland and Greece politically than England.

Of course none of this would matter if half the Midlands would stop acting like spoiled children who don't want the brown people to play in their sandbox, and cancel Brexit.  Well, that and not turning England into a dictatorship would help too.

[Labster]

Oh, one more thing: After a vote by Parliament Operation Yellowhammer came out, which is about what the UK Government thinks will happen in a No Deal scenario.  It's not pretty.  Reportedly the blacked out section is about fuel shortages, so start hoarding!  Especially for lorries with two day long commutes through customs.

[Matrix Dragon]

Jesus Christ...

[Dartz]

Oh, one more thing: After a vote by Parliament Operation Yellowhammer came out, which is about what the UK Government thinks will happen in a No Deal scenario.  It's not pretty.  Reportedly the blacked out section is about fuel shortages, so start hoarding!  Especially for lorries with two day long commutes through customs.

Section fifteen is redacted. It is supposed to be about fuel shortages.

More than that - the rumour is the title was changed before release - from a nominal scenario to a worst case scenario.

That said - the short answer in the North is that the big issue is the DUP and they are quite happy to abuse any process that gets in the way of their influence. They are getting further and further from reasonable and Brexit seems to be one of the hills they've chosen to die on despite the majority of the North being remain favouring.

[Dartz]

So, about that Law Parliament passed to prevent a No Deall?

It very Much looks like BJ's going to break it

What happens when the deadline comes and goes? Do Constables knock on the Door of No. 10 to take him away?

Meanwhile, faith among the UK population in Parliament's ability to do the right thing has collapsed to just 14%.

The Parliamentary arithmetic is so skewed that BJ can't just throw the DUP under the bus like all common sense dictates is necessary to get a deal through - he's his eye on getting them onside for the election that's bound to happen after the eschaton of Brexit is finally imminentised. He cares more for the remaining in Power, than he does for the governing - a moment straight out of room 101. The aim is not to govern correctly, but the sheer thrill of governing. Two thirds of the country will be mad as hell, but it doesn't matter if the fringe representatives from a fringe party give their OK to his remaining in power.

First Past the Post is so fucking broken. Never mind that Northern Ireland has cost the UK far more in Pounds than the EU ever did.

Meanwhile, in the Republic oif Ireland business lumbers along as usual with remarkable stability. Thus far, the opposition continues to maintain confidence and supply - clearly to keep the Government going through the crisis. A collapse in Government now would be catastrophic and both parties know it - they're putting their shit aside for the good of the country. One is the party of landowners and farmers, the other is the party of farmers and landowners - they should have some common ground. There're musings of an election in May - either after the Government has succesfully navigated the waters of a No Deal Brexit - or had the whole fiasco blow over. The Opposition can also trigger the collapse whenever they feel like it - of course - and they've been quick to remind those in power of that.

Either way, next year's Budget is being drawn up on the assumption of a No Deal, worst case. They still expect the economy to grow because - EU. As if pure GDP is the most important measure of economic health - but that's another argument.

[Matrix Dragon]

So, about that Law Parliament passed to prevent a No Deall?

It very Much looks like BJ's going to break it

Of course he is. Boris has never cared about actually doing his job, it's all about satisfying his power lust. People telling him to do something pretty much guarantees he'll throw a tantrum and refuse to do it.

[hazard]

The best option for Parliament would for me look like the bobbies showing up at number 10 ASAP after BJ breaks the law, Parliament making a humble address to the Queen on account of the PM being under arrest for breaking the law and if she could please spot for the UK government in certain duties just in case Parliament can't find a new PM and then trigger a vote of no confidence on account of the PM breaking the law the way he did.


This, of course, means none of that is going to happen.

[Labster]

I think before it got to that stage Elizabeth would tell Boris to resign. It's not really a hard argument for her to make if Government can't get a single vote approved and the PM intends to break a law she just assented to.

The other thing in the news this weekend is that David Cameron has, at long last, finally apologized for Brexit.

[Dartz]

I don't think the Crone on the Throne has that level of influence. Never mind that no matter what she does half the country will be pissed at her. Never forget that a good amount of British people consider all of this chicanery A Bloody Good Idea to keep the nefarious powers of sanity at bay.

Meanwhile, in Luxemburg - someone got scared off the stage

[Labster]

I don't think the Crone on the Throne has that level of influence. Never mind that no matter what she does half the country will be pissed at her. Never forget that a good amount of British people consider all of this chicanery A Bloody Good Idea to keep the nefarious powers of sanity at bay.

She has soft power.  The threat that she could exercise power is a power in itself. 

Meanwhile, in Luxemburg - someone got scared off the stage

If the media is covering how you got slammed by the Prime Minister of Luxembourg and Mark Ruffalo, then your day did not go as planned.

[Black Aeronaut]

Oh, but he doesn't care - it's all 'fake news' anyhow, right? </s>

[robkelk]

Prorogation? What prorogation?

By a unanimous decision of the UK Supreme Court - all 11 judges say it never happened.

[hazard]

Wow that's a pretty devastating slam from the judiciary.

Johnson's never going to be able prorogue again without Brexit being a far off issue. And he's going to find it difficult proroguing when there's any contentious issue ongoing at the time.

Even worse, it never happened, so it's still the same session of parliament.

[Bob Schroeck]

That's assuming no one makes a motion of no confidence in Boris as soon as he's back. He's going to find it extremely difficult if he's not PM any more...

EDIT: Then again, given what I've learned of ol' BoJo over the last couple months, he strikes me as the kind of guy who's going to stand at the doors of Parliament, stamp his feet and insist that no one's allowed inside until they play by his rules and not those of some silly court.

[hazard]

The problem with a motion of no confidence is that unless they find a new PM in 14 days that means BoJo can declare a new general election whenever, including after October 31st, while Parliament is in recess for the election.

And there's no alternative PM available, Jeremy Corbyn would be the leader of the largest party, and Labour has for quite some time been as fractured as the Conservatives are, including on the Brexit matter. And he won't even consider asking or accepting the LibDems or Greens offer of a compromise candidate just to get a caretaker government in place for a general election and ask for an extension on the Brexit matter so Britain's politics can untangle itself from the current mess it's in.


Come what may, the Conservatives are likely to fracture after the BJ administration folds, but Labour is in a terrible position through its own fault, while they could've won a lot of nation wide support by tossing out the fools in charge aiming for a Brexit while much of their own voting public is at best ambivalent on leaving and many are firmly interested in not leaving at all.

[Jinx999]

Over the last few years, the hard left have effectively been taking over the Labour party and and been taking it back to the 80's party, when it lost repeatedly and heavily to Margaret Thatcher.

The Conservative party is a f**king mess and has taken its reputation for sensible economic management and publicly burned it to the ground and pissed on the ashes.

The liberals have not had a PM since 1922.

The Monster Raving Loony Party is currently suing the Tories for trademark infringement.

[Dartz]

He's not The Donald - he's The Donald's sensible european cousin. Britain - not Great Britain just regular Britain now - has managed to infuriate the EU. The most placid and friendly world power there is is now mad at you and calling you stupid to your face while asking youy what the fuck you want in fancy language in a tweet. That takes special effort.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status...74912?s=20

Right now they are currently screeching about making life utter hell for the EU if they don't leave on the 31st - despite the EU having mechanisms to prevent this from happening. They are trying to bribe EU members into denying them a requested extension (With what? Goodwill - British Goodwill is a lot like a Nigerian prince's millions. It'll cost you a lot and it'll get you fuckall).

Meanwhile - one BJ prediction has come to pass. The EU negotiators have gone remarkably cold since the Benn act came out. Although, this is more to actually negotiate with the legitimately elected government that'll likely follow a November election and to avoid expending effort shoveling diarrhoettic bullshit from the current resident of Number 10.

Meanwhile, there're questions over what to actually do with BJ if he does break the law and refuse to ask for an extension. Of course, arrest and imprisonment would make sense - and it is possible to impeach a Prime Minister - but if impeachment triggers an election before Brexitanic day then....hmmm..... is there a version of reality where we could have a UK Prime Minister in prison for contempt, but still the Prime Minister because nobody wants to impeach him and trigger an early election. Cabinet meetings held over morning porridge anyone?

[Labster]

If you read the top conversation thread under that tweet, a British MEP argues how Brexit will so great, that all the other countries are going to want to join England.  Which then descends into a name calling conversation with another MEP, where he brings up how the other MEP's grandmother worked for the Nazis.  I was not aware they elected Basil Fawlty to office.

But as an American, I just want say on the record that chlorinated chicken isn't so bad, really.  It's perfectly safe most of the time.

[Bob Schroeck]

...If the rest of Europe joins the UK in the not-EU, won't that just be the EU again?

<evil grin>

[Matrix Dragon]

...If the rest of Europe joins the UK in the not-EU, won't that just be the EU again?

<evil grin>

I think they'd declare it British Empire 2: Brit Harder.

[hazard]

The biggest thing I think makes the EU look very suspicious at American food stuffs is the fact that we can't trace it past the meat processing facility it comes from. EU tracking rules allow such specific record keeping we can trace a piece of meat to the specific animal it came from as well as every transport, warehouse and processing facility it ever entered. And IIRC, that's publicly available information.

This is then combined with that USA regulations allow it to be usually safe instead of always safe makes it hard to track down the vectors of food poisoning epidemics. And the EU is very unhappy about things like that.

Right now there's a bit of a riot going in the Netherlands because, over the past 2 years or so, a specific meat packing plant hasn't properly attended to the hygiene rules and as a result 3 people have died to listeria infections and 1 woman miscarried over a period of something like several months. The Albert Heijn supermarket chains has been raked over the coals a bit because it failed to immediately notify the public through posting a banner on the website declaring that some of the meat it had sold were potential infection risks, unlike the other supermarkets involved in the matter. They had posted that message in the specific, affected super markets and immediately yanked all potentially infected products from the shelves.

To put it quite simply, Europeans are just on the average much less tolerant of things like that. Just ask most US citizens who come here; food quality is notably higher in Europe.

[Dartz]

Our as one of our interns put it "Irish butter is normal butter here".

We avoided BSE here in Ireland. We had a collective brick-shit when frozen horsemeat snuck into the food processing plants but everything was rapidly traceable. It still utterly killed Findus in the UK.

Basic food produce is - in general - extremely high quality. Butter, bread, vegetables, meats - stuff that's actually reasonably fresh.

In part thanks to the EU and in part because we've a lot of farmers here. Although that said - processed food of any sort can be just as bad as anywhere else - I ve had some horrible 'chicken' pieces that had the texture of cumbly, gooey rubber when cooked. And they aren't much cheaper than fresh meat - just more prepared.