Brexit or Breaksit?

[Dartz]

Deal Possible by the End of October

Listening to this while driving home, RTE 1 are very much taking the tack that such a blatant show of optimism from Varadkar may be a hint that Arlene Foster is about the get a good look at the uncercarriage of the No. 17.

If so - was anything else ever going to happen? Brexit really is a case of English nationalism rather than British nationalism. It's the pinky gammon that want out most of all. And as much as the Unionists want to be British - they are most definitely not English and the hardcore Brexiteers would rather been English than British it seems. It's really about getting England out of the EU..

[classicdrogn]

Arlene Johnson? Isn't that a Harry Potter character? No, that was Angelina... but I'm not getting anything that looks like a british politician in the first page of search results for that name. Who is she and what's she do?

[Dartz]

Bah... should be Arlene Foster. DUP leader. Scuppered the last attempt at a deal.

[Dartz]

And - Arlene's been thrown under the bus.

It's basically a hideously complex version of the NI-only backstop

It still has to get through Parliament

There will, of course, be no further extensions
Video of statement here

Actual video of statement here He is most definitely speaking.

Taking bets on whether they'll actually manage to get the deal through Parliament but the EU. Either way it's now or never. Either leave or get fucked out.

The DUP, are less than pleased. They've been taking advice from local terrorists on what positions to take[

[robkelk]

I've seen some speculation in online comments (yes, I know, never read the comments) that Boris negotiated a poor deal on purpose. He had to try again, he tried again, it won't pass, and he gets to call the election he wanted.

Is it a poor deal, though? I haven't read it yet. This article has a copy of the full text.

[Labster]

OK, crazy legal theory of the day time. This one is my own, so it's probably even more crackpot that normal.

Under the terms of the Auld Alliance between Scotland and France, which in over 700 years and has never been repealed, Scots have citizenship rights in France. It may be possible for the Scottish Parliament to invoke those rights, so that even after Brexit its citizens remain EU citizens.

[Black Aeronaut]

....... THAT WOULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE.

[Dartz]

I've seen some speculation in online comments (yes, I know, never read the comments) that Boris negotiated a poor deal on purpose. He had to try again, he tried again, it won't pass, and he gets to call the election he wanted.

Is it a poor deal, though? I haven't read it yet. This article has a copy of the full text.

It's hard to tell.

It'd be the ultimate bad-faith move if he did do it.

[classicdrogn]

I'd say it's already pretty well established he's not acting in good faith, between the various reports of leaks that the only strategy being discussed August-Septemberish was running out the clock, insistence that some kind of Fucking Magic technological solution to border control would appear out of thin air to wave off actual questions about it, and the whole prorogation of Parliament business.

[robkelk]

The Register reads the Brexit copyright notices so you don't have to

Oh, look - a government statement on a Friday afternoon. We all know what that means... and, yes, it's every bit as bad as one would expect.

[Labster]

Believe me, it's nowhere near as bad as 140-character government statements on Sunday morning.

[Black Aeronaut]

Believe me, it's nowhere near as bad as 140-character government statements on Sunday morning.

You know, I just made a animated gif "Shots Fired" meme with the Schwerer Gustav for those really out-loud attacks.

The only reason I don't use it here now is because it's the politics forum and could be construed as me being too antagonistic.  :V

(Though if anyone wants a copy for their own use, just PM me.)

[robkelk]

xkcd suggests a possible unexpected Brexit consequence:



(Source)

[Labster]

So the election is over, and there's one thing we can be sure of: Labour got totally crushed. Across England and Wales, the Tory blue was flying high, promising Boris de Pfeffel another term as PM.

But the story in Northern Ireland was different, as the unionists have lost the majority for the first time. And in Scotland, the pro-EU, pro-secession Scottish National Party won in a landslide, defeating Labour and Conservatives alike. They now hold 48 of 59 seats there, which means at the least they're going to insist on a new independence referendum.

So, it looks like Brexit is definitely happening for part of the U.K.

[classicdrogn]

Well, that's just grand.[/sarcasm] How's that magical new border security technology coming along?

For that matter, what kind of unholy miracle let Boorish's Brexiteers sweep the polls? Was everyone else too busy disaster prepping or something?

[Jinx999]

Well, that's just grand.[/sarcasm] How's that magical new border security technology coming along?

For that matter, what kind of unholy miracle let Boorish's Brexiteers sweep the polls? Was everyone else too busy disaster prepping or something?

At a guess, it's a lot to do with Labour having a combination of warmed over 1980's style socialism and clumsily trying to be ambiguous on Brexit, attempting to not put either side off in a manner that pissed both sides off.

[Dartz]

Trees vote for Axe because it has a wooden handle. Fucking morons.

At least it answers the Brexit question. Scotland's gung-ho to Scexit - whether London gives them permission to do it or not, they want to join the EU. That said, it's unlikely to be a sure thing considering the vagaries of an FPTP system but the demographics have had years to swing and it was interesting last time.

The North is going to be interesting. The DUP have been utterfly fucked by anyone who actually voted for any reason that wasn't pure secretarian - ordinary people are genuinely pissed at them for taking their orders from actual loyalist terrorists, it's just that some of those hardliners actually vote. It's chance that the mix of votes in NI just happened to to match the Brexit result right down the line.

The question of a new Scottish referendum is rearing its beautiful head once more.

The question of Irish Unity has also come up - just in time for Data's 2024 prediction.

[Labster]

Trees vote for Axe because it has a wooden handle. Fucking morons.

This so much.

At a guess, it's a lot to do with Labour having a combination of warmed over 1980's style socialism and clumsily trying to be ambiguous on Brexit, attempting to not put either side off in a manner that pissed both sides off.

This, so much this.

I do worry about Bernie Sanders followers doing the same thing to the Democratic Party in the U.S. as the Corbynistas did to Labour. But at least the chance of antisemitism is far less here.

[hazard]

I've a feeling that being ambiguous on Brexit did more damage to Labour than anything else did.

[robkelk]

Weren't they the ones who promised another referendum if they won? And haven't the population of the UK made it quite clear that they don't want this to drag on?

Damage, yes, but they did it to themselves.

[Matrix Dragon]

As someone watching the shitshow from a semi-safe distance... Holy hell, the British media and the Centrists really decided that if they had to choose between a racist USA born monster with a history of hateful statements and behavior against every minority, and a man with a decades long career in human rights with the occasional missteps, they were going to become Boris Johnsons cockholster.

... We're all fucked.

[hazard]

Well, Britain is pretty much fucked.

Unless there's enough Tory deserters when Parliament sits again and votes on whatever Brexit deal Boris Johnson offers that it fails, Brexit will happen, and most likely early in 2020. Depending on if the Irish border remains open there may or may not be another round of the Troubles. Either way, there's likely to be a sell of support for Irish reunification if only because the British economy is about to tank a lot harder than the Irish economy. The SNP are likely going to agitate for a second Scottish independence referendum, which the Conservatives may well grant (the SNP basically took every Scottish district seat in Westminster, and losing the Scottish seats would be a net gain of share of parliament for every other party). Or they may not, in an unlikely rush of wisdom, as that would mean the loss of a fair bit of English pride and a new border on the British isle, promptly followed with a new border with the EU as Scotland will no doubt swiftly seek entry in the EU.

[robkelk]

... The SNP are likely going to agitate for a second Scottish independence referendum, ...

Well, it was one of their core campaign promises.

[nocarename]

Semi-joking, I've seen it suggested that England be kicked out of the UK and that Wales, Scotland and Ireland join the EU as a new United Something-Or-Other. Less a Brexit and more England comes home to find the locks have been changed as it were.

[Rajvik]

And Johnson's Brexit deal has passed

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/cortneyobr...e-n2558351

you thought you could just wait them out and go back, nope, not happening