2020, the election campaigns have begun

[Dartz]

> Modern socialism on the other hand, is the first step to either communism or national socialism

And that's wrong.

Britain is better with the NHS than they are with a US-style healthcare system. So is France. None of them are heiling and marching in the street. Or for that matter, going full Lynch the Leechlords.

The alternative is what. A powerless government where all power rests in the hands of capital and you don't get a say in shit because you can't even choose what to buy anymore. Yeah - that libertarian nightmare.

[robkelk]

Modern socialism on the other hand, is the first step to either communism or national socialism (aka naziism) the difference being in whether or not they try and expand to other areas or try and isolate themselves behind their national borders. Both use pogroms and purges to "purify" their believers and use them as informants to find others to purge.

Bullshit.

Canada has been socialist for longer that you've been alive, and we're a lot closer to centrist than the USA is.

The USA has a long history of trying to isolate themselves behind their national borders - the current trade wars being one sign of that attitude - and tends to conservatism, but nobody who knows what the word means seriously accuses the right-wing GOP as being Nazis.

look, none of you agree with me, i get that, and i'll try to talk what i feel is sense into the lot of you ...

The problem with that is what you consider to be "sense" is often blatantly and provably false. And when we call you on it, you refuse to enter into a reasoned debate.

[Labster]

On topic, I've talked with people who would have voted for Bernie Sanders, but ended up voting for Donald Trump in the general election.  Between another insider and and an outsider, they wanted a political outsider.  Bernie has that outsider cred, despite being in the Senate for umpteen years.

At one Dem group with older folks in a sushi restaurant, we went around the room and talked about who we wanted for to be on the final ticket.  Most people were on the Warren-Biden-Buttigeg-Klobuchar axis, with a few more picks that aren't running.  I told them that the people I know at the Young Dems wanted Bernie's VP to be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  They laughed.

And on healthcare, there's very little difference no matter who is elected.  Amy Klobuchar said she would not veto Medicare for All.  Bernie Sanders said he will not veto an Obamacare expansion.  Whatever Congress passes, whatever helps, they'll all sign.  The Senate is still the biggest election, despite how interminably long we've been talking about the Presidency.

[Black Aeronaut]

Well, I still think it's fair game to discuss the still-myriad Democrat candidates in the running.

What I doubt is a viable topic is whether or not Trump will be reelected. That's a bit moot until the impeachment trial finally shakes out. And despite the railroading we got from the Republicans during the opening moves, there were still strong signs of dissension in the ranks. At this point, I'd say this could go either way.

As Labster implies, more importantly will be how the election shakes out for the Senate. But yet again, a lot of this depends on what direction the impeachment trial goes. The Republicans choose not to impeach? I suspect we'll see a Blue Wave in November. But if they do? Pretty sure most of them will hold on to their seats. And this will be the stronger indicator of what direction we'll be heading, whether or not Trump remains in office and somehow gets reelected.

I know it's a long shot, but I'm still rooting for Sanders. He's got a lot of the right ideas as far as I'm concerned. And while he might be pitching for free college for everyone, I'm pretty sure he'd be willing to compromise with just free college up to a two-year degree at a vocational or community college.

If the Republicans would ever let that happen, that is. As of late, they've collectively been of far less of a mind to compromise than ever before.

[robkelk]

Well, I still think it's fair game to discuss the still-myriad Democrat candidates in the running.

One thing I can tell you from last year's election in Canada: If they aren't being invited to take part in the televised debates, then they don't have a chance.

No visibility means no name recognition means no votes.

[Black Aeronaut]

So who-all has been getting invitations? I honestly have no idea since we don't have TV here, and I've been busy trying to make rent while my brothers entertain pipe dreams of buying property. (At least, when I'm not so depressed that I actually can get out and work.) *Sighs*

[hazard]

Actually, unless Trump is specifically barred from the passive right to vote (that is, being voted into office) he could be impeached and removed and still end up with a second term as president.

It wouldn't be likely, but it'd be possible.

[Rajvik]

the requirements for being onstage for the debates get higher the further into the election cycle we go, if i remember correctly, (and i could be wrong) the requirements for the last debate was a minimum 4% polling in at least three major polls or early caucus states and 250K + in donations. This means Bloomberg won't make the stage at all and Steyer (?) has a small chance. Mayor Pete seems to be the low man on the totem pole with Warren, Sanders, and Biden being the front runners and Gabbard, and a the few others not names here having really no chance at all.

Edit: LA Times article for the Feb. 7 debates

Party officials are relying on the same polling and grass-roots thresholds as for the January debate in Des Moines: either receiving 5% in at least four national or early-state surveys approved by the party, or receiving 7% in two polls in early voting states. But for these calculations, only polls from New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina will be used, with the party saying it would rely on caucus results instead of polls to reflect a candidate’s standing in Iowa.

In terms of fundraising, candidates must receive donations from at least 225,000 unique donors, with a minimum of 1,000 donors per state in at least 20 states.

These are the current requirements

[Labster]

At long last, the first election of 2020 has happened, and the results are... the results are... I said, the results are... very late.

The only possible explanation of it is that the Russians hacked the Iowa Dems new app to make Tulsi Gabbard win.

Well, there's a another possibility, that Trump sent the FBI to occupy the Democratic HQ so he could destroy their Jeffrey Epstein tapes.  Yeah, probably that.

I guess we'll find out who won, eventually, or not.  Who cares really.  The BBC put it best earlier today:

Iowa is not first because it's important, it's important because it's first.

[robkelk]

The only possible explanation of it is that the Russians hacked the Iowa Dems new app to make Tulsi Gabbard win.

Well, there's a another possibility, that Trump sent the FBI to occupy the Democratic HQ so he could destroy their Jeffrey Epstein tapes.  Yeah, probably that.

Or maybe... (mashes them together) ... the GOP hacked the new app to make Bernie win.

(Why Saunders? They certainly don't want Biden to get the nod - Trump got impeached over one of the actions he took to stop that from happening. And Bernie's so far to the left that he even counts as "on the left" in Canada, and the whole "Red Scare" mentality still has legs south of the 49th... The GOP would love to have the Dems nominate Bernie because it would put Trump back in the Oval Office.)

[Dartz]

At long last, the first election of 2020 has happened, and the results are... the results are... I said, the results are... very late.

The only possible explanation of it is that the Russians hacked the Iowa Dems new app to make Tulsi Gabbard win.

Well, there's a another possibility, that Trump sent the FBI to occupy the Democratic HQ so he could destroy their Jeffrey Epstein tapes.  Yeah, probably that.

I guess we'll find out who won, eventually, or not.  Who cares really.  The BBC put it best earlier today:

Iowa is not first because it's important, it's important because it's first.

And here I'm thinking it was because of America's inability to understand the concept of preferential voting in even its most basic form.

"I vote for candidate one!"
"Well, OK, your candidate is non-viable - so who would you like if you can't have them"..... 
"But I voted for candidate one..."

Or the tendency to throw unnecessary technology at the simplest of things. I get the idea of photographing the caucuses - because, well, there's the ballots standing there - but a Caucus App?

A bag of hammers would be appalled at how dumb this is.

[robkelk]

At long last, the first election of 2020 has happened, and the results are... the results are... I said, the results are... very late.

It's 3pm eastern the day after the voting, and the results are... still late.

What, was there a tie or something?

[Dartz]

This resurfaces from Time to Time

A letter from Sanders to Thatcher, about the hunger strikes.

[Labster]

So the Iowa Democratic Party released some partial results, 65% or so. So far, Sanders is leading in the popular vote count, but Buttigieg is getting the most nominating delegates, because even within Iowa, rural areas get more votes than urban and suburban counties. It's among the finest of American traditions, going back to when slaves counted as two-thirds of a person.

(Why Saunders? They certainly don't want Biden to get the nod …

This theory sounds absolutely fabulous.

So the app that people couldn't use was produced by a company named, get this, Shadow. Buttigieg payed Shadow for other services like text messaging apps... and somehow came out in the lead in this election. Coincidence? RT news doesn't seem to think so.

So congrats Iowa Democrats: it got so raucous in the caucus that you made talking points for Russian agents. There's trouble out in Ioway; trouble starts with T which rhymes with C which stands for caucus. The voices calling for the end of the Iowa Caucuses are now as loud as 76 trombones.

[Matrix Dragon]

Oh for fucks sake USA. Get your shit together at least once.

[Black Aeronaut]

Honestly, I think Sanders is our best bet.  After all, when Hillary got the nod over Sanders, the majority of the people that voted for him wound up voting for Trump instead....

....And had almost immediate buyers remorse once they saw that he was every bad thing people said about him.

My prediction?  History is going to repeat itself, because dumb fucking boot licking shitheads in The Establishment don't want to learn from previous lessons.  They just want to force their way in no matter what others think.

It's in this way that I know that, despite my preferences, both sides are out of touch with the base.  Democrats make platitudes to their vocal minority, completely disregarding the moderates and ignoring the root causes of today's issues.  Republicans enable their donors to do whatever the fuck they please, so long as they keep donating to the cause, and embrace bigotry and sexism because that seems to be the thing that's working out the best for them.

[robkelk]

So the Iowa Democratic Party released some partial results, 65% or so.  So far, Sanders is leading in the popular vote count, but Buttigieg is getting the most nominating delegates, because even within Iowa, rural areas get more votes than urban and suburban counties.  It's among the finest of American traditions, going back to when slaves counted as two-thirds of a person.

(Why Saunders? They certainly don't want Biden to get the nod …

This theory sounds absolutely fabulous.

Yeah, but it does match up with the observed evidence.

So the app that people couldn't use was produced by a company named, get this, Shadow.  Buttigieg payed Shadow for other services like text messaging apps... and somehow came out in the lead in this election.  Coincidence?  RT news doesn't seem to think so.

"We’re not even going to bother to dig into lessons learned because they are the same ones that every sysadmin since the dawn of time has dealt with – and spends their entire career warning the suits about, to greater and lesser degrees of success."

[Black Aeronaut]

Why do I get the feeling that Shadow is going to make like it's namesake while a new tech company will arise with an eerily similar product with very similar code?

[Labster]

Well, Nevada has already dumped the Shadow App. But as we know, getting politicians to understand software, at the most basic level, is very difficult. A fun read, for me anyway, was What I Learned Trying To Secure Congressional Campaigns. But TL;DR these are people who think that sending out mysteriously named .docx attachments is effective communications strategy.

There are other issues, too. The rules changed this year so that candidates who didn't hit 15% at a caucus site were not "viable", and should have been immediately disqualified, but in the second round "realignment", people switched to give them delegates, as had been done in previous years. So what do you do? You award the delegates anyway, because you can't make the people come back in and vote again.

At this point, as a minor Democratic official in California, I want the Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party's head on a platter. They managed to own-goal this one so hard that now I have to explain how "we" won't run the country like "we" ran this election.

Meanwhile, I got a ballot in the mail yesterday. I filled in the bubbles on the paper, and mailed it back to the county office today. No postage necessary. There, an elected official who happens to be a Republican will count the ballots. Everything will turn out fine. I also got the pleasure of marking the box next to my own name, which was far less exciting that I was expecting. Unlike Ireland, I just have to guess that my choice will still be viable in a month on "election day", and hope for the best.

And then an hour later I got a phone call with a push poll. They asked how likely I would be to vote, I said the question didn't apply because I had already voted, and they hung up on me.

[Rajvik]

So, with the passing of the New Hampshire Primary, we have kind of a tossup for front runner in Sanders and Butigiege (sp?) Iowa is saying that mayor Pete got the delegates but Bernie got the popular vote while in NH Sanders had a clean win. Add to this we can take the names of Andrew Yang, Micheal Bennet and Duval Patrick off the list as they have dropped out of the running.

Joe Biden is pretty much done unless he cleans up in Nevada SC and on super tuesday.

Bloomberg is betting on Super Tuesday to be able to buy his way into the mainstay of the race

Klobuchar is probably bucking for a VP place to pull together with one of the two front runners (probably Mayor Pete)

and Elizabeth Warren is like Biden, slowly sliding back as she isn't left enough for the Bernie bros but not central enough to pick up Joes fleeing centrists,

we may actually be looking at a split of the Democrat party much like they predicted a split of the republicans if Trump got the nomination in 2016, and with the likelyhood of a brokered convention giving the party someone neither side is happy with (Joe and or Liz) either one side will stay home, or the party is likely to implode

[robkelk]

Joe Biden is pretty much done unless he cleans up in Nevada SC and on super tuesday.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that how Trump moved to the front of the pack in 2016?

Not saying it's a good thing, just that it's possible.

[Rajvik]

Rob, thats why i brought up the matter of the Brokered Convention, either to appease the Bernie Bros, (and/or because quite frankly it's a dirty trick to allow the establishment to control the party) the national DNC has apparently decided to either severely curtail or even do away with the Super-delegates for their convention. Biden could very well be the nominee, though i don't see it, in which case the Bernie supporters are either going to stay home, or revolt, (which they will also do if Trump wins but thats not the issue right now) same if the convention nominates pretty much anyone but Bernie. The problem is that Bernie is too damn radical for the majority of the center of the party, and while some of those may still get behind him to get rid of Trump, it is unlikely to be enough to beat Trump.

[Labster]

It's kind of more arcane than that. Bernie is not too far left for the center of the Democratic Party. Most Bernie supporters are, but that's a whole other kettle of fish. Some people in the party don't like Bernie because he didn't do enough to elect Hillary in the last election. Some don't like how he has been an independent all his life, then uses the party when he needs it. But a lot of people inside the party are not concerned that Bernie's policies are out of sync with their own ideology, but that he he is too radical to appeal to independents.

But independents are a weird group. I've spoken to enough of them who voted Trump, would said they would have voted Bernie had he made it to the general election. The preferences aren't necessarily left-right -- a lot of independents vote on a outsider-corrupt insider axis. Still others vote for "throw the bums out" for whoever happens to be the bums currently in power. Some are true moderates, in the American sense; selecting Bernie may suppress voter turnout among that category.

I'm okay with a brokered convention. It worked for more than a century, it can work again now. But I'm also a big Warren supporter and I'm just waiting for her chance to shine. But you have to understand that among the Democratic Party base, they would choose a ham sandwich for president if they thought that its meatiness would defeat Donald John Trump.

[Star Ranger4]

Can't say your wrong Labster. This primary season... is challenging for me, being a Californian. Given the decision to move up, at least the presidential primary vote to 'super tuesday' to keep our state relevant and the whole open primary system the Democrats hope will marginalize the party system...

Dammit, I don't know what I can do. PLUS I am going to be away on a cruise that was planned a year ago when super tuesday goes down. But the last thing I want to do is be apathetic and NOT vote for anyone. Hells bells, I am mad enough at both parties I'd write in mickey mouse just to get the point across to both parties about how their behavior makes me not want to support any candidate at this point.

[Labster]

I hate to be that guy Ranger, but maybe just vote for the person you want to be President?  Are you one of those people who's an independent because the good is the enemy of the perfect?

My ballot was already returned before New Hampshire results were announced.  Just get it in.  If you haven't applied for vote by mail yet, the last day is February 25.

I'd give you the county office, but I don't know which county you live in.  If you just happen to be in Ventura County, 1st supervisorial district, be sure to vote for me, Brent Laabs, on your Democratic partisan ballot.  I will be happy to serve as your representative to the Democratic Party.

Oh also Democrats don't want to marginalize the party system.  Or at least, the party doesn't want to marginalize itself.  We haven't been able to get cities to test Ireland's system (PR-STV) because that's against the law for excluding minorities.  But somehow FPTP isn't.  Entrenched interests defend the system which gives them power, which is basically how every human organization works.  Anyway open primaries are a ploy to get people to be invested in democratic candidates before they make the general election.  And basically a way to get more electable candidates for the general.