Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[Labster]

Great Britain was never going to receive the same treatment because it didn't really leave Europe during Brexit.  It's still tightly integrated into the European military group (NATO, if you must give a name to it).  They still trade with Europe.  They pose no real threat to Europe, and have no designs on European territory (not even France!).  None of that is true with Russia, which is pretty open about wanting four EU member states under their sphere of influence instead.

Or is that five?  Ukraine submitted its application to join the EU today.  Nothing like being attacked by one neighbor to drive you into the arms of the other one.  The membership process will definitely take a while (or even longer if you're Turkey), but it's another thing that wouldn't have happened last week.

-- The ruble fell below 1¢US, which is only a 30% fall in value
-- Russia built up a big stockpile of $630 billion in foreign currencies in anticipation of this, but can they actually use them?  There's a ban on transactions with the US, UK, Singapore, Europe, and even Switzerland has abandoned its neutrality on this one.  Is money you can't spend actually money? Russian banks are already failing.
-- Shell, BP, and Equinor have both said they are abandoning Russian assets, which at this point is probably more of an acknowledgement of reality that they're not going to be able to do business there any time soon, and even if they do Europe is going to decarbonize faster anyway.

>  --FIFA kicking Russia our of everything. Because even those stockings of shite know which way the wind is blowing.
When even FIFA decides it might get a bad reputation from working with you, you have to wonder about your life choices.

[Dartz]

--Putin is again rattling the nuclear sabre. Europe responds with a sort of mokusestsu and carries on
--Ukraine begins process to join EU
--Kaliningrad may be about to begin the process of seceeding from Russia
--Russias nuclear rattling has basically locked Europe in place. Easing sanctions opens the door to all the nuclear powers rattling the big stick when they get pissy. Pushing them nudges the doomsday clock a few seconds further
--Rattling the big stick may indicate they have nothing else left in the tank.
--Putin may not all be there. Every photo of him is massively distanced from his staff. He's berating generals in public. Covid has not been kind to him.
--The Russian army is still a shitshow - if you've a good antenna you can even pick them up transmitting in the clear at 7140khz (And a few other shortwave bands)
--They've turned to straight gridsquare removal
--Fresh supplies and armour replenishments continue to flow to the Ukrainian army from Russia.
--Moldova is next. The Belorussian president leaked the battle plan.
--Belarus has joined the match. Or has it?
--Only two people in the world actually seem to want this war.
--Ukraine offers 5,000,000 roubles to every Russian soldier who deserts
--Rouble continues to fall on the international markets - Russias own internal markets daren't open
--There is a massive run on Russian banks
--Russian aircraft have to go the long way around the EU
--Europe's biggest stick is trade, economics and soft power and it's going Whack! Whack! Whack! Bad Russia No Tea.
--The pointy sticks are just sort of sitting there reminding the world that Europe can do that too. But they're not speaking about them.
--The Irish army went looking for its Javelins - but the Olympic committee couldn't find them after the last games.





This is weirdly fucked in the way the Cold War never was. I'd suspect David Weber was writing all this, but we haven't quite had any deep digressions on the different technical differences between various marks of T-72 battle tanks employed by both Russia and Ukraine for the last 50 years - non of which has anything to do with the last Ukrainian pilot locked in pitched aerial combat over Kiev and suddenly it's actually Dracula the fighter pilot.

[Dartz]

If you're feeling curious, you can try and listen in on the Russians over an SDR made public in the Netherlands

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

Supposedly they're on:
Listen to the Russian Army on: 7933 khz USB (lompas/buran BTG)
7140 khz USB
5125 khz USB
4220 khz USB
3098 khz LSB

Info stolen from Twitter. They seem to have gone quiet when they realised everyone could hear them.

Some Russian army chatter. Someone's not having fun. There's a chatbox where people are picking shit up.
https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmZY41aKtRoKrE8VVKR...7BudQPfENf

[Black Aeronaut]

--Putin may not all be there. Every photo of him is massively distanced from his staff. He's berating generals in public. Covid has not been kind to him.

How the mighty have fallen.  When my ship was in Vladivostok, the people there thought of him as a great hero.  I can only imagine what they're thinking of him now.

This is weirdly fucked in the way the Cold War never was.

This is like satire-turned-real-life.  It almost feels like Putin was expecting this to go over like the first ten minutes of Red Dawn.  Instead of his Army viciously attacking civilians in the streets, they sit around twiddling their thumbs while cursing their existence and their logistical organs.

[hazard]

Europe is likely to slowly sanction Russia more and more, mostly by cutting Russia from its supply chains rather than anything official.

[robkelk]

Something pointed out on the radio here...

Putin miscalculated in thinking that the squabbling amongst the member states of the EU meant they were disorganized. He forgot that, when an outside threat arises, they tend to close ranks and defend against the threat.

[Labster]

Q: What's the difference between a dollar and a ruble?

A: One dollar.

[nemonowan]

--Ukraine offers 5,000,000 roubles to every Russian soldier who deserts
--Rouble continues to fall on the international markets - Russias own internal markets daren't open

Maybe it would be more successful to offer them dollars then. I'm sure the US would finance it.

[robkelk]

--Ukraine offers 5,000,000 roubles to every Russian soldier who deserts
--Rouble continues to fall on the international markets - Russias own internal markets daren't open

Maybe it would be more successful to offer them dollars then. I'm sure the US would finance it.

No, no, no -- It's an early-acceptance bonus. The sooner they defect and get the rubles, the sooner they can convert them to hard currency and the more they'll end up with.

[Dartz]

Yeah.

In the meantime, Russia have admitted they've taken ~500 fatalities so far. They likely cannot afford to admit to more. It's suspected they're incinerating bodies to hide the true scale - a sort of ghastly idea don't you think? I've also heard that the incinerator trucks are actually just garbage incinerators. It does give you an idea how they see their conscripts.

It's astonishing how Russian diplomacy has basically descended into an Oxymoron at this point. They've taken to rattling the saber at Japan, reminding them of the last time they backed a 'Nazi' plan and how they lost the Kuril islands (Oh, and of course, the Nuclear Weapons....)

Russian soldiers have finally started sabotaging their equipment before the enemy -- so it breaks down faster and they can go home.

---

We're in the strange situation:
America is sort of watching - just sending intelligence. Sending all the intelligence. The apparatus built to observe the Soviet Union decades ago can finally perform the mission for which it was designed
The EU is fucking Gung-ho, sending weapons, aid, opening the borders and letting Ukrainians either go home to fight, or come and seek shelter. Countries that normally strip citizenship from people who join foreign militaries have waved that for Ukraine.
China is still just making tepid mouth noises
More and more internation doors are being closed to Russia.

All Russia has achieved is to look stupid and wake a sleeping bull and really piss it off.


The Putinbots have turned their arguments towards comparing the Russian attack in Ukraine, with American attacks in Afghanistan and Iraq - the usual whataboutism. And then there's theres calling everyone who helps Ukrainian refugees a racist with double standards.

Russian propaganda is a dark mirror of what was spouted to justify Iraq. An illegal 'regime', weapons of mass destruction - more weapons of mass destruction. Genocide in the east of Ukraine. And, of course, their fear that Ukraine might get a nuclear weapon now.

One suspects they're gearing up for a justification for a Hiroshima-style attack. One or two small weapons - knock a city down - not even a full megadeath. A sort of Tarkin-doctrine style strike. Against Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, you might be able to get away with it without starting World War III. It'll be end of one of the cornerstone principals of the NPT and every single thing about the world order for the last 80 years will be up-ended.

You might be looking at a world where the UN provides the assured retaliation - rather than permitting a sort of pan-proliferation.

If it happens, there will be no hell deep enough, hot enough or filled with enough Vuvuzelas for the finger that pushed that button. At that point, Russia is also finished --- you can't exactly go 'Trade with us or die', can you? The walls will go up. The doors to civilisation will be locked.

[Labster]

Yeah, all of the people calling Russia "the sleeping giant" have now realized that Europe was the sleeping giant.

Russian soldiers have finally started sabotaging their equipment before the enemy -- so it breaks down faster and they can go home.

Meanwhile: Ukraine tax agency - No need to declare captured Russian tanks, other equipment of invaders as income. I guess if you're thinking of starting a local tankery club, Ukraine is the place to be!

[robkelk]

City of Ottawa installs official "Free Ukraine" street signs on the street outside the Russian embassy, and a proposal has been made to rename the street the embassy is on to "Zelensky Boulevard".

I guess that's all that an individual city can do...

[Dartz]

Reminds me of the Iranians renaming the street that the British Embassy was on, 'Bobby Sands Street'

--

So, the thinks that've happened today - I think:

--Something is doing an impression of the Admiral Kuznetsov off the coast of Odessa
--The recipe for Russian sausage now includes fresh meat drawn all the way from Siberia.
--Russian tactics have switched to 'Fuck you and everyone in your grid square'
--You have to be a special kind of loon to carry two pinless grenades. What if you get an itch, or sneeze?
--Russian tactics have reverted to Medieval siege warfare. Capitulate or incinerate.
--Russian diplomacy continues to be an oxymoron.
--Referring to Donald Trump as the legitimate president of the United States.
--Hey Japan - remember what happened the last time you joined the Nazis? Oh, we got your islands - and we have nuclear weapons too.
--And we're invading your airspace
--And Swedens airspace.
--Japan opens doors to Ukrainians?
--Cases of Blue-balls in NATO airforces treble once photographs of parked Russian Convoy are released
--What the fuck are they stuck behind?
--Does Ukraine have anything to drop on them? They're just sitting?
--NATO Mig's probably not compatible with Ukrainian hardware due to 'upgrades' . Sorry.
--Irish soldiers say to Irish Government 'Send our stuff to Ukraine. Someone might aswell use those AT4's that're about to expire'. Irish Government maintains it's long-standing posture of pretending the army doesn't exist.
--Russia admits to ~500 casualties. With the collapse of their currency, it is likely they cannot afford to admit much more
--Listening to the Russian army from Ireland on the radio. They do not sound happy.
--Ukraine announces that Captured tanks are not taxable. Who the fuck asked that question?
--Some gobaloon left his battleplans in his tank. (Or did someone read about Mincemeat?)
--It's becoming more an more obvious what flavours of kool-aid various people are drinking on the forums.
--VDV continues its desperate effort to prove it's schtick will work 'This time'. (It's not)
--Europe has successfully weaponized peace and diplomacy and utterly annihilated Russia's economy faster than an actual shooting war.
--And weapons. Don't forget all the weapons.
--While World War IV may yet be sticks and stones, it looks like the weapons of World War III are Euros, Dollars, Gas, Goodwill and Trade.
--Is it possible to win a war without fighting it? Is the only winning move truly not to play?
--Little old lady who survived one of the most grotesque sieges of World War II is led away for protesting against inflicting the same thing on other people.
--The first Ukrainian city falls. Kherson. It's only taken a week.

[Norgarth]

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/poli...b4J-ACdV_M
US House of Representatives passes resolution backing Ukraine
Only 3 Reps voted against it, all Republicans (Paul Gosar of Arizona, Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Matt Rosendale of Montana). The Senate passed it unaminously.

[robkelk]

Only 3 Reps voted against it, all Republicans (Paul Gosar of Arizona, Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Matt Rosendale of Montana). The Senate passed it unaminously.

It's midterm year in the US, isn't it? Expect some attack ads asking about these three's devotion to the rule of law...

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Ukraine offering $40k to Russians...

[hazard]

Meanwhile: Ukraine tax agency - No need to declare captured Russian tanks, other equipment of invaders as income.  I guess if you're thinking of starting a local tankery club, Ukraine is the place to be!

The burn is even worse.

The reason the Ukraine tax agency says there is no need to declare captured Russian equipment as income?

It's too expensive to track such worthless crap.

--The recipe for Russian sausage now includes fresh meat drawn all the way from Siberia.
--Russian tactics have switched to 'Fuck you and everyone in your grid square'
--You have to be a special kind of loon to carry two pinless grenades. What if you get an itch, or sneeze?
--Russian tactics have reverted to Medieval siege warfare. Capitulate or incinerate.
--Russian diplomacy continues to be an oxymoron.

Much of this behaviour was expected after the Ukrainians didn't fall over in the first five minutes.

Well, except 'I am going to negotiate by holding two live grenades in my hands because I am afraid I will get lynched otherwise'.

--Referring to Donald Trump as the legitimate president of the United States.

Even if Trump wasn't bought by the Russians, and that's a big if to my eyes, this would make clear who Trump works for.

--Hey Japan - remember what happened the last time you joined the Nazis? Oh, we got your islands - and we have nuclear weapons too.
--And we're invading your airspace
--And Swedens airspace.
--Japan opens doors to Ukrainians?

If Russia is managing one thing quite well, it's make a case that the only way you can trust the Russians is if you have nukes of your own, can shelter under the nuclear umbrella of another, preferably both, and even then it's praying if they are not crazy enough to try anyway.

--Cases of Blue-balls in NATO airforces treble once photographs of parked Russian Convoy are released
--What the fuck are they stuck behind?

Expectation is lack of fuel and other supplies. Mostly fuel.

--Does Ukraine have anything to drop on them? They're just sitting?

Theoretically, yes, Ukraine has somethings they can use on that convoy. However, so long as they aren't exactly moving, leaving them stuck there is a net gain to Ukraine. Dead soldiers eat no food, drink no water, burn no fuel to stay warm. Expect them to get provided the good news by drone strike if they appear to be getting ready to move, but otherwise those assets are tasked elsewhere.

--Russia admits to ~500 casualties. With the collapse of their currency, it is likely they cannot afford to admit much more
--Listening to the Russian army from Ireland on the radio. They do not sound happy.

Given how they're performing, that is not surprising. On both items. Note that a Russian military victory is still not in doubt, at least for the attempt at conquering Ukraine, the force disparity is too great. But they're definitely going to be a lot harder to take serious as a conventional military threat and a source of weapons with how things are going. One of their biggest income sources is the international arms trade, they might be about to see a lot of markets rejecting Russian equipment.

--Some gobaloon left his battleplans in his tank. (Or did someone read about Mincemeat?)

Either is possible.

--VDV continues its desperate effort to prove it's schtick will work 'This time'. (It's not)

It's only going to get worse as manpads become more available to Ukraine forces. An opposed helicopter drop when you are up against an enemy with machineguns is bad enough. Trying it when you are likely to run into an enemy with more Stingers than you have helicopters dedicated to the assault sounds distinctly unhealthy.

--Europe has successfully weaponized peace and diplomacy and utterly annihilated Russia's economy faster than an actual shooting war.
--And weapons. Don't forget all the weapons.
--While World War IV may yet be sticks and stones, it looks like the weapons of World War III are Euros, Dollars, Gas, Goodwill and Trade.
--Is it possible to win a war without fighting it? Is the only winning move truly not to play?

Europe, well, mostly Germany, believed that Russia could at least be convinced that playing nice to maintain trade links is a good idea. Ukraine made clear it wasn't. Putin threatening Sweden and Finland, both EU members, rather offended everybody.

It's midterm year in the US, isn't it? Expect some attack ads asking about these three's devotion to the rule of law...

Or, for that matter, how well they've been bought.

I saw a rather remarkable pair of graphs that showed cumulative covid conspiracy peddling advertisement spending. They're graphs that became distinctly flatter the date Russia's international finances were locked down, and a lot of the far right in Europe is generally working hard to distance themselves from Russia, and seem somewhat worried about their financial health.

[Black Aeronaut]

Well slap me silly and call me Mr. Punch. Who woulda thought that the answer to the divisive politics in the USA would have been for the EU to economically bitch-slap Russia into irrelevance?

Also, I cannot help but feel a certain sort of pride at hearing that our intelligence networks have been instrumental to the Ukrainians. Because really, this is how I feel it should be. Where we support another country by all other means except by sending our own people over. We did this for Afghanistan when the Soviets invaded at the behest of the Communist usurpers. And the Afghans were very happy about this setup - we gave them money, weapons, and intelligence and allowed them to fight their war on their own terms.

It was only afterwards when things really went to hell, where they couldn't form a cohesive government thereafter, and the Arabs swept in and turned the place into their own dystopian fundamentalist hell hole.

But if Ukraine is victorious, then I don't see this being an issue. At least so long as shit does not go so pear-shaped that that even the pears will be all WTF.

[hazard]

Ukraine is right now politically setting up so that after the fighting stops, or at least the front lines substantially stabilize, the EU sweeps in with not literally endless supplies of money, but close enough as to make no difference.

We'll see after the fighting stops how much that is true, but that's a different question.

[Labster]

--Russia admits to ~500 casualties. With the collapse of their currency, it is likely they cannot afford to admit much more
--Listening to the Russian army from Ireland on the radio. They do not sound happy.

Given how they're performing, that is not surprising. On both items. Note that a Russian military victory is still not in doubt, at least for the attempt at conquering Ukraine, the force disparity is too great. But they're definitely going to be a lot harder to take serious as a conventional military threat and a source of weapons with how things are going. One of their biggest income sources is the international arms trade, they might be about to see a lot of markets rejecting Russian equipment.

I mean, how is it not in doubt?  Numerical superiority means fuck-all if your forces have the morale of anti-government conscripts, which Russian forces kind of do.  Ukraine has sky-high morale at this point, while Russia seems to be failing to get supplies to its soldiers under a week in.  I get that no plan survives contact with the enemy, but if the plan was "Ukraine folds like Kevin Spacey's career", then it was never going to survive the first day, and it really shows.

Ukraine still has an air force.  They still have air defense, despite the supposed superiority of the Russian air force.  The Ghost of Kyiv has shot down like ten Russian fighters, making him the first flying ace of the 21st century.

I get that some of this is wishful thinking, but not all of it is.  War is so inherently unpredictable that we continue to have wars.

[Bob Schroeck]

Just to interject a moment of lightness in the midst of this... I hadn't heard of the Ghost of Kyiv until the mentions above, so I went looking for info. And one of the articles I read had an embedded news video that I barely glanced at as I skipped from the paragraph above to the paragraph below, until the headline on it registered with me about five seconds later:

"Russia's Assault Slowed By French Resistance"

Say what?

I glance back up. "Fierce". Not "French". But for a moment there... well, the mental images were both confusing and entertaining to say the least.

[hazard]

I mean, how is it not in doubt?  Numerical superiority means fuck-all if your forces have the morale of anti-government conscripts, which Russian forces kind of do.  Ukraine has sky-high morale at this point, while Russia seems to be failing to get supplies to its soldiers under a week in.  I get that no plan survives contact with the enemy, but if the plan was "Ukraine folds like Kevin Spacey's career", then it was never going to survive the first day, and it really shows.

Ukraine still has an air force.  They still have air defense, despite the supposed superiority of the Russian air force.  The Ghost of Kyiv has shot down like ten Russian fighters, making him the first flying ace of the 21st century.

I get that some of this is wishful thinking, but not all of it is.  War is so inherently unpredictable that we continue to have wars.

Numerical superiority is everything when those anti government conscripts still fight the battles. Mind, the situation as it has been developing over this week is substantially different from over the weekend, and supply shortages look to be chronic and critical, rather than incidental and inconvenient, so the situation may turn around. On the other hand, Russia still has a massive artillery park and a history of giving no shits about the civilian cost of leveling everything. How and how well the Russian artillery gets used in the next few days will say a lot about Russia's chances in this war, but for now the weight of fire still looks to lean their way, quite heavily.

That said, yes, recent developments indicate that Russia is in an even worse position than its initially poor performance suggested. Ukraine is still severely overmatched, but they might force Russia back to the borders prior to this invasion.

[robkelk]

Numerical superiority is everything when those anti government conscripts still fight the battles.

Reports from journalists in Lviv indicate those conscripts are seeing the standard of living in Ukraine, comparing it to the standard of living in Russia, and wondering why they're fighting.

As always, run all reports from both sides through the propaganda filter.

[Jinx999]

Take everything with a grain of salt even from a reputable source.

The BBC, for instance, gave sizes for the armed forces of both Russia and Ukraine. With the total clearly showing Ukraine seriously overmatched.

Except that this is the absolute total. Russia needs lots of forces elsewhere, while the Ukraine is fighting one enemy with everything its got. The numbers in theatre are much more even.

It's very difficult to judge what will happen. What's Ukraine's supply situation?

What I can tell you is that Puta-in's victory condition is out of reach. After the past week, the Ukrainians will never accept Russian domination without a continual boot on their neck. Putin will either have to tie up the entire (and I mean entire) Russian armed forces for the forseeable future as an occupation force or commit the largest genocide in human history.

[Labster]

I wonder how this will end. I doubt Russia could afford a long-term occupation. Any treaty which significantly reduces the size of Ukraine or forces an anti-Western alignment will not end the sanctions. Putin’s vanity won’t allow a white peace, either. I think the end move here might be for Ukraine to cede Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia’s client states, as they didn’t have much control there anyway, and Russia can spin it into a victory domestically.