Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[robkelk]

I think the end move here might be for Ukraine to cede Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia’s client states, as they didn’t have much control there anyway, and Russia can spin it into a victory domestically.

It might come to that, but there's about as much acceptance of the idea among Ukranian-Canadians as there is in the US to the USA ceding Maine to Canada. And I understand (with no evidence) opinions in Ukraine are even less inclined to such a solution. It would probably result in the end of the current government.

Oh, yes - because of the uncertainty connected to this unpleasantness, gas prices in parts of Canada are expected to cross the $US5/USgallon mark tomorrow, going up. Assuming you can find gas at all.

[Dartz]

Things wat happened while I was at work today

--1 Week into World War III
--Macron talks to Putin for 90 minutes. Concludes - this is going to get worse.
--The threat of penal battalions is floated in the Duma by a small party. It'll fail. Or it'll end up sending even more soldiers who don't want to be there to Ukraine.
--The tanks are rolling into Moscow. Somebody fears a coup.
--One is forced to wonder if the next annoucement from the Kremlin won't turn Russia into the world's largest crab bucket
--A stock trader drinks a toast to the collapsing markets live on television, after announcing he's going to go back to work as a Santa Claus
--There's a run on Ikea. Russian Ikeas close tomorrow.
--The Russian stock market continues to keep it's head in the sand.
--Oligarch Yachts are being seized where they dock. Yoink!
--America openly admits to feeding Ukraine live intel. Ukrainian military now backed by a machine that spent 40 years learning how to watch Russia - and is now finally getting the chance to do it.
--The Putinbots are trying to turn India to Russia's side, with stories of student hostages.
--With Russia's economy doing it's best impression of a punctured sex-doll this would, in effect, make Russia a client state of India.
--It seems to be that a lot of the whataboutism floating around is easy to ascribe to Putinbots. A valid question about double-standards maybe, but right now a stumbling block on the way to doing what must be done.
--In truth I'm finding it too easy to see people having that opinion as having taken the Russian bait. It *is* a valid question - but at the same time, Ukraine is Right There while other parts of the world aren't, and Russia poses more of a threat to Europe right now.
--Or is it possible that Putin and Friends now gotten High on their own Supply of bullshit? Maybe that explains it all - they sound like the Q's they're own agencies have created.
--A Ukrainian frigate was scuttled to keep it from the enemy
--The Russian army still hasn't learned how to do this and remains the largest supplier of military hardware to Ukraine
--Russian army - some elements now four days without food, water or fuel. Russian soldiers are fucking off home and leaving all their shit.
--And Ukraine is letting them call mammy to come get them.
--NATO goes to high alert
--A small radio station claims Russia has threatened Finland and Sweden. They do not confirm receiving the threat.
--Ukraine has begun a counter-offensive. Or claims to have done so.
--The Megaconvoy is getting pecked at by bombers. In reality, it's managed to choke itself to death, not even able to run up enough fuel to inch forward.
--Cocktail parties in Ukraine, full of smiling, happy people filling glass bottles with expanded polystyrene and petrol. As you do.
--The Ghost of Sparta would be fucking moved to manly tears by this shit.
--RT America now joins the ash heap of History
--Covid conspiracy advertisements and Q-bullshit has dropped off a cliff - roughly coincident with the time the Russia economy was kicked off the cliff.
--Ongoing talks have acheived a small breakthrough - routes for evacuation and aid have been agreed.
--Ukraine continues to dominate the cyberspace battle.


I'm forced to wonder, What the fuck would World War II have looked like through the lens of the modern internet? And would Anne Frank have remembered to turn Geolocation off on her twitter? The media of the time shapes the perception of the war. All war is fundamentally the same - messy, chaotic, awful, hilarious, bizarre, horrific - but this one's been brought into the home far more than any war before it. On the Twitter, the Facebook and live on telly - even safe and warm, thousands of miles away, you can reach out and touch it. Almost voyeuristic. You can pick up Russian radio transmissions on the shortwave and listen in while - things get worse.

You can even take part and have some small effect. Like by firing a Low-Orbit Ion Cannon at Russian websites. Or by donating money directly to the Ukrainian army.

[Labster]

Things just went nuclear. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is under artillery bombardment and has caught on fire.

[RMH999]

Attack is over for now. Supposedly the reactor that caught fire was under renovations, so not active/live, but with fuel inside. The Russians were shooting at the firefighters initially, but are now letting them in to put out the fire. The remaining reactors are said to have successfully scrammed into shut down mode.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about whether Putin already lost...

[Labster]

A pretty good Beau above. ^^ In summary, though he doesn't use these words, the grand strategic aims of the Ukraine War can no longer be accomplished by Russia.  They may still win battles with good operations and tactics, but that doesn't matter much because the strategy is in ashes.  The Russian military isn't a world power, it's a paper bear.

But let's move onto a different video, a Eurovision-eligible ode to the Turkish drone, Bayraktar TB2:



-- Japan's PM said that they want to take in a lot of Ukrainian refugees.  Meanwhile, Hell hit a balmy -4°C today.
-- Ukraine still has an air force.  Incidentally, AWACS have been flying in NATO territory pretty much constantly, with transponders on of course.

[robkelk]

Attack is over for now.  Supposedly the reactor that caught fire was under renovations, so not active/live, but with fuel inside.  The Russians were shooting at the firefighters initially, but are now letting them in to put out the fire.  The remaining reactors are said to have successfully scrammed into shut down mode.

Articles about this by the Associated Press and The Register, so that folks can compare news sources.

[robkelk]

Russia passes a law criminalizing reporting anything about the war other than what's in the official news reports. BBC and CBC immediately shut down all operations in Russia.

And BBC is dusting off the old shortwave transmitters...

[robkelk]

Why choosing which spelling and pronunciation of the name of the capital of Ukraine to use is a political act.

[Dartz]

So, the shit that's been happapening while I've been at work and totally not refreshing this thread


--Ukraine has it's Eurosong entry, dropping in unnanounced with Bayraktar.

--The Russian Propeganda machine rolls on - you can see it starting to ensnare the minds.
--For the last few days the Russian Navy has been upholding the proud and noble legacy of the Kamchatka. Eventually they may hit something Ukranian.
--Odessa looks much as it did 81 years ago - with sandbags around the church and tanktraps waiting for the invaders to come
--The Ukrainian airforce remains not just in the air, but active - especially around Kyiv. That's more burnt frogfeet than a bad French restaraunt
--Is it Frogfeet, or Frogfoots?
--It seems the Airforce is less effective down south. With the capital under direct threat, I suppose it makes sense.
--Russia isn't so much holding territory, as holding a strip of land in missile range of their convoy. It's easy to go around.
--The Convoy of Doom is doomed. With insufficient fuel to move forward, and now trapped by destruction of the bridge behind it one begins to wonder how it could get worse for them. It's not going to get better.
--With Kyiv mostly safe will the Ukrainian military turn south?
--After three assasination attempts by mercenary's and Chechens, President Zelensky is still alive.
-- On the other hand, AN-225 Miriya confirmed gone - destroyed over a week ago.
--VDV continues to live up to the Volunteers to Die Violently monicker. One assumes that they're hoping people won't expect them to try it an eighteenth time. They seem to have plenty of volunteers
--Putin has started to make mild mouth noises about getting along with everyone and how they want to be friends and they don't want to threaten anybody.
--While there're rumours the FSB will resort to summary public executions to enforce the occupation
--Russia may close its banks for six months. The phrase 'economic Hari-Kiri' comes to mind. Why?
--That which is in Torpor cannot be killed, I suppose
--Once again, someone is shelling a nuclear power plant. This time, a working power plant.
--And its now on fire. And they tried to shoot the fire brigade trying to put it out.
--Mariupol is fully surrounded - but you have to wonder if a breakout is possible.
--India cancels fighter jet orders from Russia. Whether this is political, or performance driven - I don't know.,
--Blowback from the sanctions - *nobody* wants to do business with Russia, even on non-sanctioned items like Oil.
--Belarus has designs on access to a sea port. Lithuania will notice this.
--Priest arrested for Vandalising Russian Embassy in Ireland
--Ambassador Filatov announces Ireland as a hot-bed of anti-Russianism on Russian television.
--Russia Today blocked from Networks Worldwide
--Networks worldwide, blocked from Russia.
--An electronic iron curtain is being lowered.
--People are still protesting in Russia. They will be fined for doing so.
--People are still trying tell the truth in Russia. They will go to prison for fifteen years for doing so.
--The spectre of the Gulag looms once again - and already the talking heads are extolling the benefits it had for the zeks who were lucky enough to be sent to the archipelago
--Chinese netizens fairly gung-ho for Russia to win - framing it as Anti-Nato or anti-imperialist.
--Until a Russian shell found it's way to a dormitory with Chinese and Indian students. Oops?

--While I still doubt Ukraine can win, Russia is very much trying to lose. They may take Ukraine - but by every other measure Russia will be worse off when this is over than when this started.

-That said. The Russian army may run near empty of supplies some time around Sunday. And General Winter is on the March this weekend - one wonders if they've remembered to bring their cold weather gear for a war supposed to last three days.

-Putin's demands for peace have basically been reduced to the way things were two weeks ago, and acknowledging that as the way things will remain.

----



So really. If I've more than one Su-25 Frogfoot in front of me. Are they Frogfoots, or Frogfeet?

[Labster]

-- I read a post from a Russian immigrant today, he says his friends in the navy are thinking of mutiny because rumor has it Russia is taking the whole crews of sailors off of ships and shipping them off to fight on land in Ukraine.
-- Russia is hiring 1000+ mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, on the theory that people paid to shoot guns may use them more than people conscripted to shoot guns.
-- Zelenskyy continues his quixotic attempt to get a no-fly zone over Ukraine.  NATO continues to turn it down due to their desire to keep radiation doses low in major cities.
-- Fiona Hill gives her assessment on WWIII to Politico.  She points out that Putin doesn't really understand why you'd have a weapon you could never use, like Novichok or nukes.  She's a really smart analyst of Russia, but she's deep in the US intelligence establishment, so take that into account as you read.

-- Facebook and Twitter banned in Russia.  They are so lucky over there.
-- Russia banned from Eurovision
-- Russia and Belarus banned from the Winter Paralympics going on now.  They've broken the Olympic truce twice in a decade now.  China's coverage of the games censors the part where people call for peace, which I don't know why they bother because no one watches the Paralympics.
-- Russia banned from international gymnastics
-- The Hermitage in Amsterdam breaks relations with Russia.  Honestly, the Dutch half of the museum with the guild hall portraits was more enjoyable to me than the Russian propaganda half, though it was kind of cool to see letters written by Tsar Nicholas II himself.

But enough about culture, let's get to the front lines of the war: stonks
-- The Moscow Stock Exchange has decided to take last week off. Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.
-- Russia's central bank doubles interest rates to 20%.  For comparison, most G7 countries still have interest rates below 1%.
-- Yandex is two days from bankruptcy.  Since NASDAQ halted trading of some Russian stocks, and the MSE hasn't had any trading at all, all of their debt becomes immediately convertible after the sixth day of no trading.  As a company incorporated in the Netherlands, listed in the US, primarily doing business in Russia, they are pretty boned.  With no SWIFT transfers from Russia, they only have enough to pay half of their debt.

-- Russia will no longer sell rocket engines to ULA and Northrup, adding, "Let them fly into space on their brooms."  Theoretically Bezos will build them now.
-- Oil hits $115.68 a barrel, the highest since 2008.
-- I bought gas today at $4.70 a gallon. In town it's about $5.15, but I went to Costco, where the lines were long.  Which is normal.  I talked the the county weights & measures guy a few years back and he told me Costco has to calibrate their pumps differently because the petrol never has long enough in the tank to cool to ground temperature.  I would be fairly unsurprised to see $6/gallon in the next few weeks.
-- Matt Levine pointed out that while most of the sanctions do not actually prohibit dealing with Russia, they do send the signal that dealing with Russia might be more trouble than it is worth.  So everyone is encouraged not to invest.

-- Veeeery quiiietly, the US is about rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran that it left under Trump. 
-- Vladimir Lenin said, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

--Ukraine has it's Eurosong entry, dropping in unnanounced with Bayraktar.

Bayraktar always is dropping in unannounced.

--The spectre of the Gulag looms once again - and already the talking heads are extolling the benefits it had for the zeks who were lucky enough to be sent to the archipelago

A new arrival to Gulag is asked: "What were you given 10 years for?"

"For nothing!"

"Don't lie to us here, now! Everybody knows 'for nothing' is 3 years."

[Dartz]

Shit what happened while I was -


--Ukraine has gained more armoured vehicles from Russia than it has lost through all causes (By one measure)

--Russia is parading long, loving drone footage of a Ukrainian army base it capture early in the war as a counter.

--Russia propeganda, outside Russia, is still playing catch up

--Some News sources reveal Zalensky has secretely fled to Poland

--Zalensky replies from incredibly convincing and accurate set of his Kyiv office that, no, he hasn't.

--Be Like Ukraine has now entered the lexicon of company management

--It is suspected this is the first true success of Putin's troll army -- nothing will make people hate Ukraine more.

--Russia launches more air-attacks - someone told the airforce to get their finger out

--And promptly loose more aircraft. Including some more Frogfeet, a couple of Fullbacks, and a pilot 'good enough' to have been photographed with Assad a few years back

--One Mi-35 pilot sees the missile coming, then goes in in flames. \

--More videos of VDV casualties - some who didn't have a chance to leave their vehicles. Others, who did - but didn't get far.

--Russians are now escorting convoys with choppers - which may work.

--Has Ukraine retaken Kharkiv?

--Is Zaporizhizia NPP back in Ukrainian control? One reactor might still be on.

--Sumy is utterly cut off and has gone dark. This does not bode well

--Isreal is trying to broker peace talks --- on the Sabbath

--Zalensky is crying out for a no-fly zone

--Europe will not impliment one

--Putin announced that anyone enforcing a no-fly zone will be counted as a belligerant

--Well d'uh says anyone who knows what a No-Fly Zone is. How would it be enforced?

--Putin also announces that current sanctions are tantamount to a declaration of war

--And Calls on Supplies of arms to end.

--Microsoft pulls out of Russia - the first true Russian success of the conflict.

--Paypal pulls out. Russian Furryporn artists loose a major source of income.

--Pornhub pulled out early. But I am just now late to making that joke

--Workers in Russia are going unpaid. They are now going on strike.

--The Russian authorities are doubling down on the authoritarianism.

--The special financial implimentations are having the desired effect. It is hard to be Russia

--Undesired effects on food, fertiliser and fuel prices may follow soon. One hopes Russia cracks before the middle-east goes hungry

--This, of course, also fits the Green Agenda. Fucking 2 Euro petrol and they still won't drop the excise taxes, the pricks.

--Flights out of Russia are taking weird routes to avoid closed airspace.

--Flights that used to overfly Russia are now going to the old polar route. Anchorage is the true winner in all this.

--American and the EU are playing each other's roles. The EU is piling on the sanctions, throwing ALL THE WEAPONS while America is haring intelligence, talking to people, putting a few sanctions on and shipping weapons on the quiet.

-Beware the worm that's turned. Will Europe return to its 8 decade slumber after this?

--2 Republicans share screenshots of a zoom call with Zelensky. Maybe they aren't supposed to do that...

--The level of talk-show trash on Facebook has dropped like a stone since Russia got axed. Could they all have been useful idiots?

--Belarus, which should've joined the fighting a few days ago hasn't

--The Belorussian army - the rank and file - would supposedly refuse the orders and frag their officers.

--Lukashenko is now, more than ever, clearly a human toad. And his regime may have a limited life

--Real Warfare sounds like teenagers on Xbox live. "Pederast! Bitch! Give up and Die! Fucking cum-filled condom"

--Ukraine thinlks it can win the war. Perhaps, by thinking it, repeating it, and getting the world at large to believe it's possible, they may enable the circumstances to make it so.

--Russia has already lost.

--Did the FSB really leak the routes of the Chechen saboteurs to Ukraine to prevent a horroshow?

--Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrain negotiating team, shot dead for High Treason after resisting arrest. (He may have been a double agent)

--Putin inadvertently acknowledges Ukraines right to exist when he threatens Ukraines statehood if it continues resisting.

--Women everywhere will recognise that logic.


----

[Labster]

--Putin also announces that current sanctions are tantamount to a declaration of war

Ah, so I assume he's going to start invading Poland any day now since we're already at war, right?  Or is it just whining?

--American and the EU are playing each other's roles. The EU is piling on the sanctions, throwing ALL THE WEAPONS while America is haring intelligence, talking to people, putting a few sanctions on and shipping weapons on the quiet.

-Beware the worm that's turned.  Will Europe return to its 8 decade slumber after this?

Eight decades ago there wasn't really a "Europe" to speak of.  Now, there are still countries, but they only really vary in whether they hate Putin a little, a moderate amount, or hate Putin a whole lot.  Europe today is stronger and more unified than it was in the Roman Empire, which is to say, ever.  Fighting a war against Poland implies fighting Germany, France, Austria, Britain, Spain, Portugal, and Turkey.  I've played enough EU4 to be legitimately scared of that alliance.  Not sure why Putin isn't.

Also, from Twitter.  This view is a reminder that Russia really only controls land within shooting distance of the main roads:

[Dartz]

--Putin also announces that current sanctions are tantamount to a declaration of war

Ah, so I assume he's going to start invading Poland any day now since we're already at war, right?  Or is it just whining?

He's escalating the rhetoric in the hopes that the spectre of a wider conflict might get someone to back off.

A polite term for whining like spanked child.

The sanctions are working. By one leaked FSB report, Russia will utterly collapse by June. The actions taken by the central bank have made this even more likely - even if EU sanctions are lifted tomorrow, the whole thing's a zombie economy.

The correct response is to sit and let them squeal. Don't escalate the sanctions further unless the situation in Ukraine gets more brutal

--American and the EU are playing each other's roles. The EU is piling on the sanctions, throwing ALL THE WEAPONS while America is haring intelligence, talking to people, putting a few sanctions on and shipping weapons on the quiet.

-Beware the worm that's turned.  Will Europe return to its 8 decade slumber after this?

Eight decades ago there wasn't really a "Europe" to speak of.  Now, there are still countries, but they only really vary in whether they hate Putin a little, a moderate amount, or hate Putin a whole lot.  Europe today is stronger and more unified than it was in the Roman Empire, which is to say, ever.  Fighting a war against Poland implies fighting Germany, France, Austria, Britain, Spain, Portugal, and Turkey.  I've played enough EU4 to be legitimately scared of that alliance.  Not sure why Putin isn't.

Nuclear weapons are a double-edge sword. Once you have them - you're also fair game for those others who have them. He's gambling they won't react, for fear of someone being forced into a position of going Nuclear.

As world powers go - the EU as a collective is generally relatively herbivorous - happy to trade, open its doors, conduct dialogue and assimilate new members and go about its way like a shitty United Federation of Planets. This is the first time it's brought the hammer as a collective and it is frightening the damage economic war can do. Usually, it's limited by the economic damage you're willing to suffer yourself - but in this case, the EU is going in boots first and is taking the pain to make Russia feel worse.

Also, from Twitter.  This view is a reminder that Russia really only controls land within shooting distance of the main roads:

If even. They're getting fairly hammered in the North. Things are different in the South -- there're slow gains for Russia. And there're some parts of Ukraine like Sumy that'll not be too pretty - it's completely cutoff.. The troops are out of food and ammo - so it's goiong to get medieval when they get hungry.

[Black Aeronaut]

It'll be funny if Ukraine actually *does* win this war.  Because if they do, it might just make them into an actual World Power from all the reparations they'll be able to demand of Russia.  (Though definitely not a "Super Power" like the US and China.  Not counting Russia in that list anymore. )

[Dartz]

They will have a lot of friends. They may also feel a little angry they weren't friendly enough.

Also

Mastercard and Visa have just cut Russia off.

[Labster]

Visa and Mastercard, at the same time? What a monopoly, right guys?

Also Kyiv will be a smoldering nuclear crater long before Ukraine gets any concessions from Moscow beyond white peace.

[hazard]

Even a white peace will be bad for Russia, and I'm not trusting they won't be forced to give up Crimea and the separatist states it tried to establish in case of a Ukrainian victory.

And sure, Ukraine won't be a world power on its own. But the EU already is in an expedited process to admit Ukraine to the union. Once the shooting stops, reconstruction funding is going to pour into Ukraine like an endless waterfall and the EU will insist Ukraine is included in NATO, even as it extends France's nuclear umbrella out to Ukraine. It'll be part of a world power that just took on Russia militarily and economically and broke it.

[Labster]

The Russian claim on Crimea was never entirely bogus, like the one given for the current phase of the war.  I think that when the Russian SSR gave the Ukrainian SSR possession of Crimea, they expected it to be a largely symbolic move.  They certainly have more claim to the region than, say, Genoa.  But what you consider status quo ante bellum depends rather on when you think WWIII began.  If you say 2016, Crimea could be on the table.

-- Air Serbia and Turkish Air are the only European airlines still flying to Russia, though it's also possible via Dubai and the gulf states.  Air Serbia has doubled flights to Moscow.  I suspect they are more full one direction than the other.
-- I feel like this shows how neutral states are a key part of the humanitarian response to this war.
-- Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM suspended all cargo shipments to or from Russia, with the exception of food and medical supplies.  There is no legal requirement not to ship, but...
-- Insurance companies don't want to ensure Russian goods, and a lot of ports require insurance.  Of course, there might still be money to be made with higher insurance rates, but...
-- Consumers and companies really don't want Russian goods.  Surprisingly, most companies don't like dealing in unpopular products that may become contraband in the future.
-- Stolichnaya would like you to know that it is made in Latvia and that its owner left Russia because of Putin in 2000.  They're rebranding to simply Stoli, just in case.
-- Racist numbnuts everywhere are vandalizing businesses with Russian themed names, but it's not too bad yet.

[Dartz]

It's Freedom Fries, liberty cabbage and hot dogs all over again.

[hazard]

Actually, it doesn't matter what is considered status quo ante bellum in this.

There is, to my knowledge, one treaty that settles 'who owns/is in charge of Ukraine', and it's the one that says the Soviet Union (and thus its successor the USSR) handed off the region to the Ukrainian sub government. Until such a time as a different treaty is settled upon by the belligerents, that is the only treaty that matters.

It'd be like if the USA fell apart and Texas later went to war over the return of the Oklahoma panhandle, which was Texan territory until the treaty that joined Texas to the United States of America. Just because Texas historically owned that territory doesn't mean that it didn't trade it to Oklahoma for joining the USA.

[robkelk]

Break time!



Source

Okay, that's enough of a break. Back to gloom'n'doom.

[LynnInDenver]

...yeah, we actually have a game that's going to go away here in the next month or so. Having lived through a Pandemic, I don't want to play a game about dealing with a Pandemic.

[hazard]

Look for Rising Tide, Lynn. You don't live in the Netherlands.

[LynnInDenver]

Look for Rising Tide, Lynn. You don't live in the Netherlands.

Actually, we have Thunderbirds (also by Matt Leacock), that scratches many of the same itches as Pandemic, while packing a certain amount of nostalgia for me because of the theme.