Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[hazard]

Also, taking or entering Belarus is likely to be a red line on its own. Putin has not exactly hidden his belief that Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are all 1 country, it's just that two of those areas are not currently under the Kremlin's direct rule.

[Dartz]

Day 27

--Watching video of Russian soldiers getting ambushed
--Nobody's telling them what to do - there's no particular urgency to get out of the way of the bullets -- or any particular intent to send any bullets back. Or do anything really.
--Has nobody told these lads they don't let you respawn in this match? One shot and you're out like.....
--I assume it's called a Kill zone for a reason.
--It's like they don't even care if they get killed or shit, it's like, you might be in your box, but at least you're not in Ukraine
--Welcome to the Gates of hell, soldier, says the Devil. Oh Thank Fuck, says the soldier. That's an odd reaction, says the Devil. You don't know where the fuck I've been, says the soldier, at least here it's warm.
--US claims lack of cold weather gear among Russia troops is causing frostbite
--One Russian tanker steals his tank and delivers it to the Ukrainian army. 'Misha' earns 10,000 dollars, and a chance to be a citizen when the war is over.
--Even more fancy electronic warfare equipment is abandoned in its container.
--Russia's total losses may be near 18,000 - including Wagners.
--Speaking of videos. Tiktocker arrested after showing Ukrainian vehicles beside a shopping centre
--Shopping centre subsequently attacked so - yeah - oops. Loose lips
--Azov batallion being called 'Tik Tok' batallion. They hate the nickname
--And may have used an ATGM on a Russian boat shelling Mariupol
--If someone shoots down a helicopter with a PT-boat torpedo we'll officially be on anime logic
--Mariupol fighting is very much street-by street at this time.
--Videos from drones used to spot for tanks hiding in forest.
--Ukraine tank-plinking with what looks like artillery. I didn't think cannons could be that accurate but... Plink!
--Pops like a Jack-in-the-Box, I thought. Then I found out wikipedia has an article on the Jack-in-the-Box-effect already.
--The VDV does what it's be doing for the last 4 weeks and achieves the same result it's been achieving for the last 4 weeks; less VDV than there was 4 weeks ago.
--Russia's generals continue to die from the front.
--Are these the bad generals to incompetent to stay alive, or the good generals getting involved to at least try to make shit work that're getting killed
--2400 Ukrainian children may have been removed by Russia from the Donetsk and Luhansk areas
--Africa and 'Colonised' parts of the world (For real want of a better term) tend to have more of a pro-Russian voice.
--Even if most of them voted to condemn the invasion at the UN, that's about all they've done.
--Russia armed a alot of them when it was the Soviet Union. And when it came to Colonisation, Russia mostly shat where it ate rather than everywhere else. The people who see Russia as the Coloniser live beside it.
--Lots of them need Russia for shit like grain and fertliser so this thing is fucking them over. Openly siding against Russia will hurt them. Openly taking Russia's side will hurt them too because Europe is Pissed. Best to do nothing and stay sensibly out of the war. Maybe send some Blue Helmets when it's over.
--EU might do better learning to speak to them in a manner that reflects their experiences.
--Poland is calling for Russia to be booted from the G20 (Wasn't this mentioned a week ago?)
--China seems to have picked it's side. It's own side in this case. It's trying to be a third pole on the magnet.
--It's trying the 'Bow to one, without mooning the other' approach. Acceding a little to western sanctions, and imposing its own, so the West doesn't get pissed at it and it fits its own narrative. But not actively fucking Russia in the ass because it thinks having a grateful/friendly/needy Russia may be useful to it.
--Destabilisation of other poles is also useful to it.
--Zalensky is trying to arrange a conference with Winnie the Pooh to try change his mind
--Maybe it'll go better than his address to the Knesset
--Don't try to draw comparisons with The Holocaust. They don't like that.
--Speaking of those drinking Kremlin-aid, Republican congress-creature Majorie Greene blames Ukraine for the war, and calls Russia's offensive successful.
--Europe is making noise about embargoing Russia's oil
--France's Total oil, stops selling Russian oil on its own.
--Maersk sails out of Russia, permanently
--Russian Nobel peace prize winner, donates prize to fund aid.
--Renault - ever the fascist collaborator - has resumed car production in Moscow. (Didn't they get nationalised for Nazi collaboration in the 40's?)
--Russian embassy in Poland fails to elect new Pope as black smoke rises from Chimney
--Germany seems to be aiming towards building Europe's largest military
--Putin - in every photo, looks older and older.
--And Belarus still hasn't invaded. But soon(tm).
--Russia may deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus before it goes in.
--Der Postillion: Newly independent Donetsk and Luhansk apply for NATO membership.

----

That last one will utterly fuck anyone who doesn't check sources, won't it?


All around the battlefield
The missile chased the tanker
The missile thought t'was all in fun
POP! goes the tanker

[Labster]

Where are they now?  Ukraine Edition

Viktor Yanukovych was President of Ukraine, but ousted by his people for corruption and opposing European integration.  Nowadays, he lives in comfort in Belarus, awaiting Russia to restore him to his rightful place on the throne of Ukraine.  Though Russia is rumored to pick someone younger from a different party when it finally wins the war.  So much for loyalty and cowardice.

Petro Poroshenko was the next President, and was recently under quasi-house arrest for corruption.  But the chocolate magnate has a new job -- he is now running a brigade of Ukranian national guard that he paid for.  As far as I can tell this is actually operating as part of the Territorial Defence Forces and not as a private army, so that's cool.  He was on TV holding a Kalashnikov while making threatening words to Russia.

Alexei Navalny was once a candidate for President of Russia.  Well, he just got sentenced to another 9 years in prison for fraud.  It's almost like they never want him to get out of the gulag.

Gerhard Schröder was a beloved Chancellor of Germany, who got some jobs in Russian-related businesses after he left office, like heading up the now-doomed Nord Stream pipeline.  He said some stuff about how the thing in Kosovo was basically the same as the invasion of Crimea.  Earlier this year, he joined the board of Gazprom.  Once the current war broke out, he decided to go to Moscow on his own accord, to mediate the conflict.  Even though no one asked him to do it. Now Gerd is under investigation for crimes against humanity in Germany, and persona non grata in his own political party.

-- One of the great things about this war is that we can finally find out who has drunk the Russian kool-aid in our governments, and start investigations to see if they're on the take too.  About half of our farthest-right US Congresscritters are making mouth noises supporting Russia despite everything, which will help us to vote the bums out.
-- January 6 rioter granted asylum in Belarus
-- Russian court cancels Peppa Pig trademark because the United States has too many sanctions.  No, really.
-- Gonna go out on a limb and say Boris Johnson is probably upset
-- Russian general Badanov missing after Ukraine air strike, based on intelligence from moose and squirrel.
-- Speaking of air strikes, the VDV still has not established air superiority, nor does it look like they ever will
-- Zelensky starts describing Russian pilots as also having an empty space where their brain is, to match the empty space where their heart is, without which they are not human.
-- I feel kind of bad about dehumanization but I understand it
-- We can all hope Russian pilots get additional empty spots on their organs courtesy of the Ghost of Kyiv.
-- Zelensky seems to be less angry at the Russian infantry, though, encouraging them to leave or defect
-- Shopping mall bombed to smithereens
-- TikToker who posted video of Ukranian vehicles parked near shopping mall under arrest
-- It's just weird looking at pictures of this massive building collapsed, and then there's an advertising poster stand in front of it, intact, and telling you to talk to Grandpa about his gas bill.  I fundamentally don't understand why people start aggressive wars.  Like I get the theory, but why would you ever do that?
-- Older escapees from Mariupol say that they doubt the city can be rebuilt in their lifetimes, the damage is so extensive.
-- Ukranian forces seem to be making gains
-- Both sides seem to be running low on food and fuel in the war zone.  Ukraine claims Russians only have 3 days left.
-- Russia planned to have taken some supplies from cities by now, but instead have been busy exploding cities instead.
-- Occupied Kherson also running out of food and medicine
-- More sanctions coming.  US may sanction the entire membership of the Russian Duma.
-- Seriously, how many yachts do these oligarchs have?  (possible explanation?)
-- Estonia calls for a larger, permanent NATO force in the Baltic and Poland
-- 3.5 million refugees have left Ukraine
-- Russia continues to blame NATO and cancel culture for the war
-- Belarus was going to go to Ukraine but then Andrei forgot his sunglasses so the whole convoy had to go back home so he could pick them up.  Sorry Russia, it's Andrei's fault.  On the way there now, but worried that Ivan forgot his deodorant and we'll have to turn back again.  Logistics are hard.

[Norgarth]

-- Seriously, how many yachts do these oligarchs have?

where do you think all the money Putin poured into 'the military' went? Cause it obviously didn't go into the actual military...

[Dartz]

March 23rd

Four weeks of fun, frollicing and fighting. Four weeks into a 3 day campaign. 1 Month since the World WTF'd as one

--Russian soldiers told on day four that it would be over in a couple of hours. 576 hours later….
--Quantity of Russian dead still unknown. Maybe 7000, maybe 17,000. Injured somewhere in the 30-40,000 range
--Quantity of Ukrainian dead or injured, I don’t know. Ukraine admitted to 1300 about 10 days ago.
--Russia isn’t making casualty claims. Not even exaggerated ones. (Unless it's about TB2's)
--Russia is clamping down on local newspapers reporting on soldier’s funerals.
--When they are held, Priests are very much of the 40K Priest mould. It's disturbing how into this the church is.
--Ukraine dominates the information sphere. Wrecked, looted, abandoned, Russian equipment everywhere. This hasn’t changed for 4 weeks.
--Every smartphone user is simultaneously a spy and a propagandist.
--Russian soldiers too busy trying to phone their commanders for orders to video themselves, it seems.
--Only the Luhansk and Donetsk rebels seem to have achieved much in the way of noise.
--Mariupol is now sufficiently ‘dealt with’ that troops can start moving North.
--The fighting continues, but there’s little but rubble left to fight over. It is the ashes of a dead land.
--The shelling of civilians trying to flee continues.
--The lawyers at the Hague will be getting their paycheques for decades after this is done.
--US: Russian troops have committed War Crimes
--Russia otherwise trying to do what brainy war experts think it should’ve done 3 weeks ago – encircle the Ukrainians pinned in the east.
--They may not have enough capability left to do it.
--Is there anybody in charge figuring this shit out, or are all these armies just wandering about on their own?
--Minister Shoygu has been missing since March 11th – his last public appearance. Putinbunker, or Coffinbunker?
--If you’d fucked up this badly, would you show your face in public?
--Russian TV calls for the nuking of Poland like I call for the nuking of a frozen dinner. 30 seconds and it’s cooked.
--Russian government has rare attack of common sense – admits it will only use nukes if it’s existence is actually threatened.
--This depends on your definition of ‘threatened’ I guess. Russia is threatened by its own shadow.
--Sergei Lavery admits they didn’t expect all their assets to get frozen – after so many slaps on the wrist it’s a punch to the face, a kick in the nuts and a cactus in the arse. It’s thievery, they say
--Russian soldiers admit they didn’t expect to be frozen either. If there was any army in the world that would have cold weather gear you’d expect it to be Russia – but not.
--The Maxim gun continues to prove its worth, after 140 years of service. On both sides.
--Someone has one in a double mount – with a modern optic bolted to the top. As you do.
--Russian soldiers have been spotted with Mosin-Nagant rifles.
--Ukrainian airforce still flying – but Russia close to gaining air-superiority.
--The only thing Russia has on its side is sheer bloody numbers.
--And once again, we’re being told they may run out of fuel/ammo/food in three days
--Russian soldier, pleading with headquarter “Sir, please, we’re starving. If we eat any more grass, we’ll be mooing like cows”
--Russian officer reassures them. “We’re having honey in our tea, and you don’t see us buzzing like bees”
--President Biden is attending a NATO summit, with Zelensky by video link (tomorrow)
--4 full battlegroups into states bordering Ukraine/Belarus - but not going over the border. Trying to avoid a NATO/Russia donnybrook
--The current posture is making Russia squeal like a pig, but can Ukraine last long enough for the pig to topple?
--Europe's strongest weapon is still it's free market, ability to cooperate and being able to tank the economic damage required to skullfuck the Russian economy into the ground faster than any missile barrage.
--Economic war is still war. Just because there're no ruined buildings or burned out tanks full of crispy-critters, doesn't mean their won't be casualties. The starving, the frozen. It's a comfy form of war for most, but not without consequences for many.
--Speaking of capitalist scum, 4 weeks after Pornhub, Nestle finally bows to pressure and tries to pull out of Russia
--I’ll never cease to be amused at how early Pornhub pulled out. (And I won’t stop using that joke)
--Facebook, Instagram and the like now blocked in Russian. Whatsapp still OK
--Russia’s demanding payments for gas in Rubles – to force foreign countries to buy them and prop the currency
--Nope, says Italy and Germany, Russia needs the payments enough that - well - it's fucked now.
--Poland has expelled 45 potential spies
--Russia orders American diplomats home to retaliate.
--Russia may no longer be able to fund its foreign embassies. Oh Dear. Spies will soon be required to expel themselves.
--You can buy a Zalensky dakimakura, if you’re that way inclined
--Or a Putin bog roll. Good thing too – I’m almost out of Boris Johnsons.
--Belarussian drone found in Ukrainian airspace – a child sent it over the border so Ukraine could use it
--It’s the only piece of Belarussian hardware to cross the border. It’s been three weeks since they were expected to invade. They’re going to do it, any day now, any day….. any day…..
--Ukrainian police may be back to work in Irpin – Ukraines counter offensives are slow.
--Russian monobrow Colonel captured. Supposedly head of Information and Psychological countermeasures.
--Ukraine is using it’s TB2’s as spotters – and as weapons deliverers.
--Russians have managed to attack at least 3 Ukrainian supply trucks.
--Teenagers are stealing Russian BTR’s – because why not
--Whatever the fuck was carrying that captured VAL rifle was special – those things aren’t common.
--And Europe continues to supply The Good Shit.
--UK asks Youtube to delete Russian Propeganda
--So many US Republicans are going to get pwned
--At least some of the captured fancy shit is making its way west. Traded for what?
--NATO may be going to high alert. Will likely Reassure Russia it’s just a planned exercise and definitely not any form of special military operation
--Back in the Parish, Mick Wallace still sucks Putin's cock - because why not. He's spouting Kremlin points Fucking cretin. Once again, making a food of us in front of the real countries.
--Russian conscripts are expecting to go home, Friday week.
--Russian army “Where there’s a whip – there’s a way”. This would gut morale – if there was any to begin with.
--Will it be possible for the Russian army to properly Haze it's new intake with so many conscripts at the front?
--Is Ukraine starting to --- ever so slowly --- gain the initiative?

----

[Norgarth]

--Russian soldiers admit they didn’t expect to be frozen either. If there was any army in the world that would have cold weather gear you’d expect it to be Russia – but not.

Didn't that happen back in the Winter War too?

[robkelk]

--Russian soldiers admit they didn’t expect to be frozen either. If there was any army in the world that would have cold weather gear you’d expect it to be Russia – but not.

Didn't that happen back in the Winter War too?

Which is why one would expect them to be ready this time.

Well, you know that quote about not learning from history that's attributed on various web pages to Georg Hegel, George Bernard Shaw, and George Santayana...

[Labster]

Anyone who doesn't learn from history class is doomed to repeat it.

[Dartz]

---
March 24th
Day 29

--Russian Landing ship Orsk lands here, lands, there, lands everywhere after onboard explosion
--Whether by drone, or by saboteur, that thing’s fucked.
--In a complete failure of imagination, Russian propaganda had released videos of it docked and unloading – while it was still docked and unloading. Or it left, and went back to the SAME dock.
--See ya later, Alligator
--Captain might’ve been the brother of that admiral that was recently killed. Ends up like his Brother.
--Two other ships managed to leave port. One was one fire at the time.
--Russian armies North of Kyiv seems to be in danger of being encircled
--They’re happily staying in their pocket, digging in. (This seems like a bad idea to me….)
--Something big and explody and very fuelly exploded near Irpin
--Once again, someone lands aircraft at Kherson airport.
--Once again, it gets annihilated by Ukrainian artillery still sighted on the airport.
--Trying the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of Russian Military Strategery
--The Daily Mirror: Russia using death-squads and Chechens to hunt down deserters. To be clear, the Mirror isn’t really a newspaper, so much as something for your bird to shit on in its cage.
--They are still using unencrypted comms.
--Interrupted by someone whistling the Dukes of Hazzard car horn, or, ‘Better a deserter than fertiliser’ --- a callback to a gift of Sunflower Seeds
--Buran-30 did not have fun on the 27th of February.
--If one word could describe Russian efforts, it’s unimaginative. There’s no ‘next step’ in the mind, after the one task they’ve been told to do. There’s no context or objective, beyond Do the one Thing.
--Ukraine, is very imaginative. Anything can, and will be tried to see what sticks
--Using private drones as artillery spotters
--Shooting down ballistic missiles with Stingers
--Using drones to kill ships.
--Luring boats and ships into a killzone for a ballistic missile attack.
--98% of Belorussians are against getting involved with the war
--Not sure if biased survey. But at that point, sending troops in will be the last thing Lukashenko does in power.
--A dictator who’se feared remains in power. A dictator who’se hated is heading for a coffin.
--Russian trrops find premade medals in Kherson labelled ‘For the Taking of Crimea’
--Conveniently for the Propeganda machine, they’ve been labelled in Russian so that Russian-speakers will understand them. Even the Russian spelling of President Zalenskey’s name is used.
--Once again, there is no actual fucking thinking.
--Putin’s inner circle very quickly diminishing to a point, as they are either arrested as spies, or go into hiding.
-- FSB Colonel Beseda – responsible for Ukraine – now on house arrest.
--It’s the old Soviet adage. The plan was correct. The orders were perfect. The technology was flawless. Any failures must be treason, or sabotage.
--The amount of modern Russian army shit still for sale on eBay points to some of the problems
--The fact that bandages from the Brezhnev era are being issued to troops points to the consequences.
--UN: 50% of Ukrainian Children have been displaced from Home
--Ireland: Where the fuck are we doing to put all these refugees? People housing refugees should do it for altruistic reasons and not for payment
--US opens its doors for 100,000 refugees.
--Germany extends the life of coal plants, reduces fuel taxes and public transport costs.
--NATO asks for China to step up to the plate
--NATO considers sending anti-ship missiles to Ukraine – because, why not.
--NATO decides to supply chemical weapons protection equipment to Ukraine – just in case Russia does what everyone expects it to.
--NATO activates Bio, Chemical and Radiological defences, incase something Russia does drifts across the border.
--President Biden says that the US will respond if Russia launches a ‘non-conventional’ attack. The nature of the response, depends on the nature of the use.
--A wild Red-Line just appeared. It remains to be seen how effective it’ll be.
-- NYtimes. Russia using even a small nuclear weapon – a few kilodeaths rather than a megadeath or two – even against a non-NATO state, leaves NATO in a situation where all ‘ Bets are off’.
--US also says it hasn’t seen anything to make it adjust its nuclear posture
--France may have – 3 of their 4 ballstic missile submarines have sailed.
--France also tests unarmed nuclear missile, reminding the world it has its own private button that doesn’t have to answer to the White House.
--This probably feels more dangerous than it is.
--Red Cross President and Russian foreign Minister discuss need to protect Civilians
--Nobody tells the Russian army that’s important. 6 Civilians killed and a School destroyed in Kharkiv.
--White Phosphorous video`d being used over urban areas.
--I don’t think it’s being used for lighting – for one thing, it’s far from the frontline.
--Anyone ever play Spec Ops :The Line?
--EU believes Russia is deliberately targeting civilian food supplies.
--EU will step up support, sharpen the sanctions and reduce dependence on Russian fossile Fuels
--Has Poland blocked the Russian embassy’s access to its account?
--Lol. Poland seems to be leading the European charge, along with the Baltics. Poland is killing this thing.
--G7 is now trying to kill Russia’s ability to sell gold. People are unwilling to buy. Now Russia will be unable to sell.
--G20 still thinkings about banning Russia. Also thinking about admitting Ukraine – just as an observer.
--Bucking the expected trend – Russian stocks up as Moex opens
--But only because the Russian government is buying them to force them up. Like a snake eating its own tail
--Russia blocks Ukrainian TV in Kherson. Only Russian TV now broadcasts.
--The Hague has been notified – there has to be a Geneva convention prohibiting subjecting people to Russian television
--Russian Chief Negotiator Vladinsky makes speech – ‘Russia facing an existential crisis’
--Russian Foreign ministry shits out a map of Ukraine – showing Luhansk and Donetsk as part of Ukraine.
--Ukraine loses at least one farm tractor to Russian mines. The driver sounds mildly disappointed.
--Russian tank crew drives into flooded crater and sinks. Another, on its back in a river – crew patiently awaiting rescue --- any hour now. They’ll come back – just you wait.
--Lithuania offers more military aid
--Kosovo offers aid. Not much – but for a small country.
--The American Doomsday Plane has been spotted flying over Europe
--The Russian Doomsday Plane, likely for sale on eBay. You can buy Doomsday buttons, for sure.
--NATO may have made some concrete commitments to Ukraine in a meeting – but it’s a secret
--Ukraine may be attempting to re-take Kherson. Keeping people from learning this, explains the blocked internet and TV.


------
Barring anything big, I think tomorrow will be the last day. I might post a thread with all of these – then go back and fill out the first couple of days.

--I got my degree in military-thingys from the University of Twitter.

[Mamorien]

--Russian soldiers admit they didn’t expect to be frozen either. If there was any army in the world that would have cold weather gear you’d expect it to be Russia – but not.

Didn't that happen back in the Winter War too?

Which is why one would expect them to be ready this time.

Well, you know that quote about not learning from history that's attributed on various web pages to Georg Hegel, George Bernard Shaw, and George Santayana...

In his Vorlesungen über die Philosophie der Geschichte (Lectures on the Philosophy of History), G.W.F. Hegel wrote: "Was die Erfahrung aber und die Geschichte lehren, ist dieses, daß Völker und Regierungen niemals etwas aus der Geschichte gelernt und nach Lehren, die aus derselben zu ziehen gewesen wären, gehandelt haben."

Google Translate, given this input from Detect Language to English, output: "But what experience and history teach is this, that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history and acted on the lessons that should have been learned from it."

Within John Brunner's Hugo- and BSFA-winning non-novel Stand on Zanzibar, Chad C. Mulligan, after starting with the most common paraphrase of "Papa Hegel" in his The Hipcrime Vocab's definition of history, observed, "I know people who can't even learn from what happened this morning. Hegel must have been taking the long view."

[aku]

For possible background

https://boingboing.net/2022/03/23/if-you...right.html

[Norgarth]

Kyiv Calling (Ukranian cover of London Calling)



and a small article from Reuters about the band/song
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukr...K2gNfg9EZE

according to this article, the surviving members of the Clash approve of the Ukranian version
https://boingboing.net/2022/03/20/the-cl...lling.html

[Dartz]

Day 30 of a Three Day War.

--Russia announces that it has completed its primary objective in the East of Ukraine, liberating Donetsk and Luhansk.
--Everything has gone exactly as planned.
--Iraqi Information Minister. ‘I now inform you that you are too far from reality.’
--You’d almost believe it – they have a landbridge to Crimea and it’s where they’ve been ‘reasonably’ successful
--This would mean More than 15,000 Russian soldiers, tankers, parachutists and pilots were consciously expended as a gambit.
--Man, you can almost feel bad for those guys if that’s the case. They were just ground up
--Along with how many civilians in Ukraine. Christ only knows.
--Me thinks they’re trying to save some sort of face.
--In one case, Russian logistics have cost them 8 of 10 tanks with a unit – due to breakdowns and shit.
--Russia and Ukraine both claim 400,000 civilians have been taken to Russia. The only difference is whether they were abducted or evacuated. Somehow, I doubt it’s the latter.
--Russia continues to kidnap local politicians in Kherson.
--Russia claims to have suffered only 1500 fatalities through the whole thing.
--Does that include the Colonel pancaked by a tank driver pissed at how many of his friends were pointlessly killed?
--Russia claims to have killed upwards of 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers – a 22:1 ratio
--Claims to have shot down 35 Bayraktars – twice what Ukraine had. Maybe some were big seagulls?
--Minister Shoigu finally confirmed to have had heart attack - explaining absence for 20 days.
-- Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev is being called the Butcher of Mariupol for ordering the destruction of a hospital. Rumours of his death may be unfortunately exaggerated
-- Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev becomes the 7th General to meet his end inside a month.
--Despite his best efforts, Mariupol still resists.
--City council reports people have begun to die of starvation in the city.
--A Russian journalist in Mariupol, fishing for positive words, gets shown what finger to sit on by the surviving locals.
--According to one Haaretz interview, the Russian preparation was so incompetent and slipshot, with so little cross-communication, the Ukrainian government genuinely believed it to a Bluff
--Not sure if operation Leeroy Jenkins Failed successfully, or successfully failed.
--Depending on the day, and phase of the moon, at least 60% of launched Russian ballistic and cruise missiles failed. Assume this means, failed to kill what they were supposed to, for whatever reason.
--This has to raise a question over Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
--Turns out Russia’s special state of readiness for a few weeks ago involved sending their ballistic submarines out from dock for a spin round the block before docking again a day later.
--While Russia’s enemies might have to assume it’s still functional, can Russia take it as a given that when it Pushes the Button, something will happen. Can it assume its opponents will take it as a given?
--Unreliability changes the calculus of nuclear warfare
--A candidate congress creature from the States has decided to join the Ukrainian military instead.
--President Biden visits the Polish Border to see what’s going on.
--US clarifies yesterday’s statement – it will not respond Chemical weapons if Russia uses Chemical weapons.
--Rumours of antidotes for chemical weapons being issued to Russian troops are still floating around.
--Blatherings about US Bio and Chem weapons in Ukraine are still emanating from China.
--China claims never to have invaded another country or sought a sphere of influence.
--Winne the Pooh is talking out his arse. And probably loving every second of this.
--America compares what’s happening in Ukraine to Tiananmen Square.
--Nobody wants to Talk to Boris Johnson at a European summit.
--Civilians who attempted to rescue Snake Island sailors and were held as POW’s, released as part of POW exchange.
--EU is announcing task force to start to wean off Russian gas, and begin to buy gas as a bloc.
--Greece, Turkey and France to make effort to evacuate Mariupol. Greek Minister for foreign affairs to attend personally.
--Macron also launches a food security initiative to try and minimise the blowback on Africa and the like.
--Kremlin, on being excluded from the G20 --- Nuttin but snakes in dis group anyway.
--Kremlin still doubling down on the Gas Rouble concept.
--Europe: lolnope
--Kremlin insists Bulgaria especially pay in Rubles.
--Bulgaria: lolnope
--Serbia may get left in the cold since their gas moves through Bulgaria
--Kremlin: West has declared total war on us. Claims to still have many friends
--India: Keeps its head down and hopes the good weapons keep flowing
--China: Blathers on like a shitehawk but is doing fuckall to actually help Russia
--Russian Television obsessed with Zalensky not being in Kyiv
--Zalensky addressed the world, running down the list of supporter countries. Ireland earns an ‘almost’ rating.
--Ireland demonstrates its high collective self esteem as major newspapers filled with columns providing inches to explain what this actually meant and how it means we really are doing a lot actually…..
--Better to be seen as a laggard, than as fools who didn’t realise a Javelin wasn’t something thrown in the Olympics. (Or to be forced to fund the military – can’t have that, we can’t)
--The greatest dressing down is reserved for Putin’s European cockholster, Hungarian President Victor Orban
--Putin compares himself to JK Rowling
--One’s clearly gone off the deep end. The other’s President of Russia
--Godwin himself replied to one of Putin’s tweets. You know who this guy reminds me off (A week or two ago – I forgot about this)
--Russian ambassador to France posts pencil-sketch cartoon tweet. Gets diplomatically bitch-slapped by France over it.
--Moscow Newspaper: NOTHING IS HAPPENING. Walk on by. A special operation is underway. No one is growing poor. The economy is growing. (Ooh, Snark)
--Despite penalties – the Russian anti-war movement still exists.
--Russian Government complaining Europe hates Russian culture.
--Not true. I’ve been including Russian jokes in these – rephrased for the modern times.
--Ukrainian civilians play ‘Bayraktar’ to Russian occupiers
--Civil resistance continues. Both violent, and ‘peaceful’
--Russia begins destruction of classroom texts and history books in occupied terrirtories.
--Azov regiment never shaking it’s Nazi image. The Wolfsangel – at least – may have something to do with it. Ukraine insists they’re not ‘that way’ anymore.
--AN-225 Mriya was supposed to fly to Leipzig, the morning of the attack. They ran out of time.
--Videos of captures Russian hardware are getting thin on the ground.
--Was fine when Russia was advancing – it hinted at where the enemy was. Now that Ukraine is beginning to counter-attack, it may reveal where the counterattack is happening.
--Beginning now as small nibbles.
--Led by an impressive fireworks display courtesy of Ukrainian artillery
--VDV soldier still on Hostomel may have inadvertently revealed where they were hiding, while trying to prove they were still hiding
--Bayraktar sends his regards
--Military experts on Russian state television now talk about this special operation lasting 40 years. (Really?)
--Pentagon. Russia no longer has full control of Kherson.
--Russian troops marching to reinforce Kherson with all the enthusiasm of a death row prisoner for the Green mile.
--Reinforcement convoys consist of mostly Loaf vans and civilian vehicles.
--I kind of want a Loaf. It looks cute.
--Has Kherson been liberated?

What remains to be seen?
--Is this the start of the turnaround?
--Will Russia get it’s shit together, or turtle up in the South East and hold on for dear life?
--Will it ever be possible to buy a new Loaf in the West again?


---

This is the final entry.

[classicdrogn]

You're not alone in thinking the loaf vans are cute, or wanting one because of it. Insert vague notions of getting one in brown-beige and painting on stripes and a face like the Cheshire Cat, or some cat at least.

[Labster]

Thanks for the "first drafts", Dartz.  I always learned something new when I read them.  I'll go ahead and continue.  Not every day, but when I feel like it.

As for the loaf vans, I wouldn't expect new ones, but plenty of gently-used ones that were abandoned on country roads, or in back gardens, or in the middle of roundabouts by the Russian army.

I'm also hearing that the colonel maybe wasn't killed by his regiment, but maybe just had his legs crushed by a tank.  Or maybe he had his legs crushed and then died in the hospital?  Also that his unit had lost 50% of its personnel before the incident.

-- Sergei Shoigu is alive after all.  Just a minor heart attack.
-- I'm sure the war has been going well in my absence... wait, what have you guys been doing!
-- Russian military has monthly meeting with American military.  One interpreter asks a general, "Hey, you're from Donetsk, right?"  Russian general says he's depressed by the whole thing, then immediately leaves the meeting.
-- Morale at the top just as good as at the bottom
-- 1/5 to 1/6 of the invasion force is "not combat-effective"
-- Russians are panic-buying pharmaceuticals like it was toilet paper.
-- No one is talking about sanctioning drugs
-- But drug prices could still have rapid inflation with the devaluing of the ruble
-- Either way, Russian people definitely don't believe what they read
-- Kapersky Labs, makers of antivirus software, now banned from most government roles in US, just like Huawei
-- Basically how all antivirus software works is by downloading little bits of executable code from a command & control server every day and then looking at all of your files
-- This is one step away from a botnet, by design
-- Honestly I trust Kapersky more than Huawei, but still do not trust the people with guns around Kapersky.
-- Zelensky finally gives up in asking for no-fly zone
-- Instead, Zelensky asks for 500 stingers and 500 javelins a day
-- Shut up and take my missiles?
-- America planning to send enough LNG to Europe to meet a third of the Russian supply... somehow.  Maybe just though accounting deals with China I guess?
-- Germany to build two natural gas terminals at seaports.
-- Enviros are upset at this plan
-- Don't worry the pipelines will also transfer ""green" hydrogen".
-- NATO actually sticking together
-- Jo Rowling doesn't like Putler.  For some reason, this merits several news articles.
-- Kyiv facing another weekend curfew, including the entire day Sunday.
-- Mass graves in Mariupol

Even though Russia is making moves as if to say that it accomplished the first part of its goals -- as if anything at all went to plan -- I honestly think this is going to keep getting worse. As war is continuation of politics by other means, it's hard to believe that either side is willing to give up anything.  The one upside is that a month in, I'm significantly less worried about the nukes; no one's dumb enough to gamble on a first strike that they are unsure they can carry out.

[Norgarth]

--While Russia’s enemies might have to assume it’s still functional, can Russia take it as a given that when it Pushes the Button, something will happen. Can it assume its opponents will take it as a given?
--Unreliability changes the calculus of nuclear warfare

Oh I'm sure many things would happen...
- some missiles don't launch
- some launch, then crap out due to lack of maintenance and fall short (perhaps very short) of their targets
- some launch and go (way?) off target due to faulty guidance systems
- some explode in their silos (rocket fuel explosion)
- some make it to their targets and explode (nuclear blast)
- some make it to their targets and nothing happens, because the warhead was sold on the black market years ago

granted, many of these things would not be good results, but things would happen (and this doesn't even get into other Countries' reactions)

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Putin Changing his Victory conditions...

[Labster]

-- Biden says "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power!"
-- Everyone begins twittering about change in foreign policy
-- US State Dept says there is no change, our President says stuff sometimes
-- Garry Kasparov basically calls Biden a pussy, says he got it right the first time
-- When they did this to Trump, he yelled and screamed "deep state!"  Biden realizes he is a grandpa who makes mistakes sometimes.
-- Russians freak out of course but then they've been talking about The Bomb a lot lately so I feel like they owe us one.
-- Russians capture Slavutych, currently the closest city to Chernobyl.  Troops treated as occupiers, greeted with a massive protest.
-- Russians catch and release mayor of Slavutych.  Then they demand townsfolk surrender all of their arms to the mayor (except hunting rifles, ofc)... and leave.
-- Strategic retreat to reinforce elsewhere, or Russian army genuinely surprised they weren't greeted as liberators?  you decide.
-- Possibly just that they realized that occupying a hostile city is hard.
-- Lviv music festival interrupted by missiles
-- Kharkiv music festival held in subway/shelter, not interrupted by the explosions
-- Russia saving the expensive, accurate missiles for Lviv so they don't accidentally Poland
-- Giant holocaust memorial mehorah outside of Kharkiv loses a branch during Russian shelling to stop Nazis
-- Poltavka and Malynivka villages liberated by Ukraine
-- Mariupol still not under Russian control (inset map, tweet with full maps)
-- Derussification of Ukraine accelerates thanks to explosions everywhere.
-- Unification of NATO accelerates thanks to explosions.
-- Truly, this whole thing blew up in Putin's face and in Ukrainian civilians' homes
-- Dubai wants everyone's money
-- UK "Homes for Ukraine" programme called "Tinder for sex traffickers".  They sure like excuses for not letting people immigrate there.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's about how we know Russia is lying...



and the old video he references in the above
Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's about the futures of Ukraine and Russia...

[robkelk]

Russia's military losses in Ukraine continue to mount. Here's a look at why the death toll is so high

As always - and as mentioned in the analysis - take the exact numbers with a grain of salt.

If that estimate is accurate, it raises a question: Why has a single month of war in Ukraine killed almost as many Russian soldiers as did the Soviet Union's decade-long war in Afghanistan?

"A democracy would say these are high, unacceptable, grisly numbers. The average Russian would say, 'That's war, that's the way it is, that's the way you do business,' Boire said.

"The average Russian, he or she expects life to be rough."

"Boire" is Major (ret.) Michael Boire, assistant professor of military history at Royal Military College.

[Jinx999]

According to the BBC, Russia has agreed to cut down on attacks on Kyiv.

According to everything I've been reading, their ability to attack Kyiv has been seriously degraded. They've agreed not to do something they can't do.

[hazard]

I wouldn't trust them to keep that promise either way.


Also, it seems that the next round of conscription (starting from April 1st) will include a recall of about 100 000 reservists with combat experience. Which is puzzling. For one, unless conscription is massively expanded, this would leave them with an army of about 300 000 soldiers, maximum, which is substantially smaller than what Ukraine will be fielding. For two, Ukraine mobilized within days of the offensive starting, and they've got more than half a million soldiers in the pipeline. For three, there is a question as to whether or not Russia can even supply that many troops, given their apparent equipment woes.

[Jinx999]

Yeah. If the Russian leadership agreed to keep breathing, I'd start to celebrate their imminent deaths.

[Labster]

-- People still twattering about Biden.  Two contradictory points that seem to come up in all analyses:
---- Obvious political gaffe, he's definitely not changing policy
---- Russia will assume he's absolutely changing policy
-- A verbal gaffe is basically a public brain fart.  A political gaffe is saying something that is obviously true, but you are not allowed to say aloud
-- Biden "not walking anything back" while moonwalking
-- Mayor of Mariupol tells everyone to leave
-- Satellite imagery shows block after block after block of housing destroyed in Mariupol.
-- Red Cross warehouse struck in Mariupol.  Russia sorry (not sorry).
-- Surprised there are any buildings left.
-- Russia demands immediate surrender of Mariupol, or else... again.
-- Ukraine trying, but cannot hold the centre of Mariupol
-- Falcon cannot hear the falconer
-- Gyre widening
-- I don't expect a ceasefire until Mariupol is fully occupied by Russia.  Control of the Azov and a land route to Crimea are important.
-- Technically there is a land route to Russia via a bridge at Kerch.  I'm surprised no one could spare a missile to blow it up.
-- Three people poisoned at peace conference: one Ukranian peace negotiator, and Russian oligarch Roman Abramov, owner of Chelsea FC
-- I guess the poison was in the chocolate.  Anyway they lost eyesight for a while but are now fine.
-- Russian oligarchs aren't actually oligarchs, and haven't been so since a couple years after Yeltsin left office.  It's a dictatorship.  If Atlas decided to shrug, a bunch of rich people would be poisoned or fall off of tall buildings and Putin would still be in power.
-- Russia declares MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
-- Cool story bro
-- Russia says it will be attacking Kyiv less now
-- Okay?
-- I guess it's okay to telegraph your manuvers that everyone can see you are already making
-- Presumably they are going back to consolidate gains, because they aren't really advancing
-- Russia beginning to "withdraw" from Ukraine -- particularly those forces that are no longer combat effective, and also unwithdraw reserve forces towards Cherniv.
-- At most, 20% of Russian forces attacking Kyiv have left
-- Cherniv under heavy attack
-- Heavy fighting around Kyiv too
-- Russia bans use of land mines in places that it wants to keep -- or maybe different armies just following different rules?
-- WHO program director: Denying medical care to Ukrainians is "part of [Russia's] military strategy."
-- US forces are training Ukrainian forces in Poland
-- Benelux busy expelling Russian diplomats/spies
-- Ukraine, Russia agree not to worry about status of Crimea for 15 years
-- Ukraine considering neutrality -- of a sort.  They'd like a security guarantee from all five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel, with no-fly zones included.
-- But meanwhile asking for more, stronger sanctions on Russia from everyone
-- Video shows Ukrainian army shooting various captured Russians in the leg inside a van.  Torture is a crime.
-- Where is the van?  Mariupol?  Moscow?  Ukrainian general notes that there is no statute of limitations for war crimes to all soldiers, real or imagined.
-- Novaya Gazeta stops publishing.  Russian newspapers closing faster than Google shuts down services.
-- To capture the Chernobyl reactor, Russia marched troops through the Red Forest.  Eat my dust!
-- People will be eating their radioactive dust for a while.
-- Zelensky asks Norwegian parliament for weapons is a sentence I never thought I'd write before today.
-- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, today: "China is ready to work with Russia to take China-Russia relations to a higher level in the new era."
-- Russia tells Europe: Gives us the rubles or you don't gets the gas
-- Belarus will join war.  Any day now...
-- Slovenia PM says that Ukraine will soon be the strongest military in Europe, and NATO will *want* them to join.  /gives anti-aircraft system to Ukraine
-- Chechen dictator says Russian negotiators are giving too much away, and in the end there will be no compromises with Ukraine.
-- This man understands the value of Russian promises.
-- About 10 million Ukrainians forced from their homes
-- Will probably hit 4 million refugees from Ukraine tomorrow
-- Of those, 2 million are children
-- US going to give half a billion directly to Ukraine so the government can pay salaries
-- Oil under $100/barrel
-- Incidentally I spent $100 yesterday on a tank of gas
-- Any time oil is expensive, refineries in California always develop mysterious production problems

[Labster]

Just sharing one article today, because of the appalling stupidity: Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches.  Ah yes, digging trenches to defend the fucking Red Forest, as if anyone would ever want to attack positions there.

To add insult to literal injury, the Russians have now withdrawn from the Chernobyl area, and transferred the reactor to Ukraine's control today.