Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country

[robkelk]

Aside:

Now I understand why the Stand With Ukraine Bundle at Daz includes sunflowers. "Fill your pockets with sunflower seeds" is not a blessing.

[Dartz]

Oryx, on twitter, has been tracking documented vehicle losses from both sides.

You can find them both below

Russian Vehicle Losses

Ukraine Vehicle Losses

Through battlefield attrition, Ukraine now has more Tanks, AFV's, IFVs, Engineering Vehicles, Towed and Self-Propelled Artillery, and MLRS systems. That's like, a negative rate of attrition - they're actually gaining equipment through war.

Russia has lost unique, high ticket items, including a Naval cruiser and a number of rarerer helicopters, ELINT vehicles and the like - some of which have been captured.

[Labster]

Oryx, on twitter, has been tracking documented vehicle losses from both sides.

You can find them both below

Russian Vehicle Losses

Ukraine Vehicle Losses

Through battlefield attrition, Ukraine now has more Tanks, AFV's, IFVs, Engineering Vehicles, Towed and Self-Propelled Artillery, and MLRS systems. That's like, a negative rate of attrition - they're actually gaining equipment through war.

Russia has lost unique, high ticket items, including a Naval cruiser and a number of rarerer helicopters, ELINT vehicles and the like - some of which have been captured.

But for a moment, let's focus on the low-ticket items:
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (878, of which destroyed: 540, damaged: 18, abandoned: 63, captured: 257)

Russia doesn't have enough military trucks, and is pretty reliant on rail to supply its troops.  Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli goes into a lot of detail on this.  The article is 5 months old, so it talks about a theoretical invasion of the Baltics instead of an actual invasion of Ukraine, but the conclusions here seem to have borne out in reality quite well.

The Russian army will be hard-pressed to conduct a ground offensive of more than 90 miles beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union without a logistics pause. For NATO, it means it can worry less about a major Russian invasion of the Baltic states or Poland and a greater focus on exploiting Russian logistic challenges by drawing Russian forces further away from their supply depots and targeting chokepoints in the Russian logistic infrastructure and logistic force in general. It also means that Russia is more likely to seize small parts of enemy territory under its logistically sustainable range of 90 miles rather than a major invasion as part of a fait accompli strategy.

The first sentence is almost right -- you can get rid of that "beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union" part entirely.  Ninety miles is it before they need to consolidate gains.  Still, what we mentioned upthread still seems true: converting to standard gauge in the Baltics would be a security advantage.

But here's an article from a week ago: Russia’s Military Has a Railroad Problem.  It has been like all things in this war, showing that Russian logistics are even worse than we thought.  Russia has not been able to capture any rail hubs -- notably Kharkiv and Mariupol.  Logistics have gotten harder because Belarussians are sabotaging their own rail signals to slow traffic, and destroyed line itself into Ukraine.  So it makes sense that Russia abandoned the northern front -- without even telling the rear guard that they were the rear guard -- because it was too hard to supply.

In aggressive wars, you essentially have all of the time in the world to plan, but once you attack, you're stuck with the army you have.  If your goal was fait accompli, especially so.  But you can't just magick up equipment in the middle of a war, and changing doctrine is even more difficult.  If you're looking for a historical example of that happening in a war, the American Civil War started in the waning days of 1860, and after removing several generals, U.S. Grant finally got command in Virginia in 1864 after having beat down the rebels in the Mississippi Valley -- three long years to implement a winning doctrine.  Ukraine managed to switch to "Western" doctrines in eight years, and we see the results now.  I don't know if Russia has long enough to change before the sanctions really start to bite.

It's all pretty fun in the abstract to talk about Russia losing, but people are suffering right now.  Sieges have always been terrible on civilians -- both those inside the walls with dwindling supplies, and those outside forced to feed the invaders.  I watched a couple videos today.  One was a Russian livestreaming on TikTok after the op about how good of a job they just did on their mission, they only had three injured and *explosion* #deadorc.  Another is drone footage of dropping a grenade on a truck.  After the blast, the video zooms in to show the Russians writhing in pain, dying on the ground.  Even though they're orcs, they're people too.

And their own government has set them up for failure.  Their failures were all predictable by outsiders looking in from across the world.  None of this is the inherent unpredictability of war -- they should have been able to see it coming.  And they didn't care.  I feel sorry for the poor conscripts in that truck, I really do.  But they have to keep striking those trucks, because that's how you kill tanks before they kill you.

[hazard]

It's important to note that Ukraine is most likely showing a notably smaller segment of its own losses than the Russian losses. While they are certainly performing much better in the war than anybody expected them to, successfully delaying and denying Russian advances and objectives at the war's start and now forcing the Russians back while inflicting severe casualties on the Russians while suffering substantially fewer in return, it is hard to say if they are actually gaining more equipment than they are losing.

It is also important to note that during the US Civil War both sides had major doctrinal issues at the start as a result of the US military not adjusting to advancing technology. The CSA was lucky in that a substantial fraction of the pre-Civil War US military and especially its officer corps came from the South, which meant that they had a more able and prepared command staff. It's a combination of economical power, manpower reserves, the development of new strategies, and commanders able to leverage these advantages to best effect that resulted in the Union victory.

Third, the Russian government hasn't set them up for failure, exactly. Rather, the Russian government does not want a capable and effective military. A capable and effective military might get ideas in an autocratic state about who should be in charge. Rather, the Russian government has set its military up to do what the Russian government actually wants its military to do, and that is to look though, intimidate the population and neighbours, and if necessary suppress a revolt. And they would be quite capable of that. Note that 'war of conquest' is not in that list.

However, the Ukrainian military has since 2014 reformed itself on a very different basis, namely, that it exists to safeguard Ukraine and her people from existential threats from outside its borders. It has spend the years between 2014 and 2022 testing itself during the ongoing conflict in the Donbass region for exactly that purpose, and it is demonstrating during this war just how capable they are.


And yes, the human toll is not to be ignored. It is likely to continue to grow. I would not be surprised at all if Russia keeps fighting this war for years unless the economy completely collapses and Putin faces revolts he absolutely needs the military for. Although by the time that happens, the military might well be too spend.

[robkelk]

It's important to note that Ukraine is most likely showing a notably smaller segment of its own losses than the Russian losses. While they are certainly performing much better in the war than anybody expected them to, successfully delaying and denying Russian advances and objectives at the war's start and now forcing the Russians back while inflicting severe casualties on the Russians while suffering substantially fewer in return, it is hard to say if they are actually gaining more equipment than they are losing.

...

Neither side is likely to be reporting all of their losses - their propaganda machines won't let them.

That said, Ukraine's physical losses appear to be more in infrastructure than in materiel.

[hazard]

The Russians are in hostile territory with a population that is much more willing to report Russian positions and wrecks. It is likely the losses confirmed with photographic evidence of the wrecks are closer to true when it comes to Russian vehicles.

Although notably, that is only for vehicles lost in Ukraine. We can only guess at how successful Russia is at retrieving and repairing wrecked vehicles, even in their own territory.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about how Russia could do things differently...

Make sure to stick around to the end 

[robkelk]

John Deere tractors 'bricked' after Russia steals machinery from Ukraine

[Jinx999]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/m...-row-grows

Russian diplomatic skills in action. I've never seen a country so bent on burning every diplomatic bridge it's got.

[Black Aeronaut]

Man.  It's like everyone that doesn't fall into lockstep with their rhetoric are automatically Nazis to them.

I'd love to see a parody comic of that infamous Doom fanfic, Repercussions of Evil, only with Nazis and instead of John it's Russia.

"No Russia.  You are the Nazis."

And then Russia was a Nazi.

[robkelk]

AP: Ukraine admits 'Ghost of Kyiv' fighter pilot, hailed for feats against Russian forces, is a myth

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Gerasimov, the most sought after man in the world...

[Labster]

Day 70 of the war:

-- Ecumenical Patriarch denounces Patriarch of Moscow's blessing on Russia's war.
-- Macron had a 2 hour call with Putin.  It wasn't about Ukraine, it just took that long to get Putin to cancel his cable TV service
-- Angelina Jolie did something
-- Russian conscripts bitching in the clear about how all of the Russian special forces went back home to Russia and refuse to come back to Ukraine
-- Maybe they're getting drunk with the air force, which seems to have vanished.
-- Foreign Minister Lavrov states Russia's position that Hitler was Jewish, and it was affirmed by the government.  Israel reacts predictably badly.
-- Castle Azovstal still held by Ukranian forces, along with the Azov Batallion.  Civilians are being slowly evacuated.  For some reason they're not considering surrender.
-- Ukrainian soldier found dead days after surrender to Russian forces.
-- Fighting in the east continues.  Stuff is happening.  I'm more concerned about logistics so I don't really know.
-- Another Russian general killed
-- In the west, Russia is using missiles to attack Ukrainian rail.  These are valid targets, but they always seem to choose the targets with civilians.
-- The US Congress authorized $3B of the American arms stockpile be sent to Russia.  As of yesterday, only a few hundred thousand dollars worth has not been sent.
-- Europe inching towards an oil embargo on Russia (but the gas must flow!)
-- Hacking season declared against Russia.  Everything being hacked.
-- Russian book publisher warehouses catch on fire after being told to remove "Ukraine" from history books.
-- Coal power plant, only 5 years old, burning down in Sakhalin.  You know, a place that used to be part of Japan.
-- Russia surprisingly flammable these days
-- Japan signs defense treaty with Thailand
-- North Korea launches more missile tests in desparate bid for attention
-- A bit of an aside but Russia's weakness is a strategic problem for China.  If their only large ally can get completely sidetracked by a ragtag band of citizens with tractors it leaves them rather alone in the world.
-- China has stayed out of the war, and none of the companies want to risk global sanctions to help a small customer like Russia
-- Russian Navy getting their ass kicked in a land war against a country without a navy. Russia so worried it pulled the ships from Crimea to the east end of the Black Sea. 
-- Belarus holding large military drills.  I'm sure they'll get involved in the war soonish.
-- Four "filtration" camps in Mariupol filtering out Ukranian soldiers and attractive women for further "processing"
-- 17 year old Maria Vdovychenko from Mariupol: "I will never forget two soldiers talking: 'What did you do to people who didn't pass filtration?'
'I shot 10, and then lost interest in counting.'"


And in the future:
-- On Victory Day, May 9, Russia will either declare war on Ukraine to do a full war mobilization, or trigger a law that allows a partial mobilization in the event of a threat to Russia.  Either way the special operation will be less special.
-- The Pope told the press Orbán told him that Putin told Orbán that Russia would end the war and declare MISSION ACCOMPLISHED on May 9.
-- If you remember history in the long long ago of February, Orbán was sure there would be no attack on Ukraine because Putin told him so.
-- Those who repeat Putin are doomed to history.
-- Either way there will be a massive parade, along with all of the tanks that didn't go to Ukraine.  All of the working fighter jets will be here, not somewhere risky like a war zone.
-- On May 12, Finland will vote to join NATO.
-- On May 13, Sweden's armed forces will give a report recommending they join NATO
-- In the next week or so, Sweden's Social Democrats will officially change their policy on joining NATO.
-- Around this time, Russia will accept Luhansk and Donetsk's requests to join the Russian Federation.
-- On May 22, Sweden will apply to join NATO.
-- Accession to NATO requires ratification by 30 different countries, which will take some time.  They would like some security assurance in the meantime, which I am sure the US and UK will grant, and that is enough.
-- Russia says they will move nukes into the Baltic region now.  This is a lie; the nukes were already there.

[Labster]

I'm just going to leave you with some choice comments from Lukashenko on the war -- and the president of Belarus does publicly admit it's a war, and not a "special operation".

"But I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it. I want to stress one more time: I feel like this operation has dragged on."

"We categorically do not accept any war. We have done, and are doing, everything now so that there isn’t a war. Thanks to yours truly, me that is, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have begun."

Lukashenko said using nuclear weapons in Ukraine was “unacceptable because it’s right next to us – we are not across the ocean like the United States. It is also unacceptable because it might knock our terrestrial ball flying off the orbit to who knows where. Whether or not Russia is capable of that — is a question you need to ask the Russian leadership.”

Ah, a Space: 1999 fan!  Wait, which country elected the comedian as its president again?

Russia Ambassador to U.S. Says NATO Not Taking Nuclear War Threat Seriously.  Ah yes, Russia's weekly reminder it has nuclear weapons.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Russian analysis of Ukraine...


Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about a Russian take on mobilization...

[Labster]

As we eagerly await "Victory" Day (V-E Day in America), and what Ruzzia will do then, let's take some time to reflect on some pictures.


It's a preview of the parade tomorrow!


Some Russians taking down a bilingual sign for the city of Mariupol, and erecting a new sign with only the Russian spelling.  Of course, they can't just bolt the new sign on the old poles... or just leave the old sign.  It's only a one letter difference.  Imagine if America invaded Canada, found a sign that said "Montréal / Montreal" and sent out five guys to put up a whole new sign that said "Montreal".  Can I note that this picture came from the Russian government propagandists?


The sinking of the Moskva.  Source




The Ghost of Kyiv, perfect for your phone's lock-screen


Skuld has been busy lately.  Originally posted last year for Ukrainian Independence Day.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about the US signing up to back Ukraine throughout the war...


EDIT:
Bono and Edge give surprise performance of With or Without you in a Kyiv subway

[robkelk]

I'll just leave this here.

[Labster]

I'll just leave this here.

It must be nice to be in a free country like Ukraine, where the media is allowed to report in real time, unlike in Canada.

-- Military air parade portion of Victory Day canceled due to slight breeze.  No, really.
-- Flyboys had been practicing flying Z formation for weeks.
-- So it turns out the big Victory Day speech by Putin was just a speech.  No declaration of war, no moves toward peace.  Just another day, and mad ramblings about how NATO caused the war by making the Ukrainians into Nazis.  It's like that time Geraldo opened the vault.
-- Meanwhile, Ukrainians opened an abandoned refrigerator train car, and found stacks of dead orcs abandoned by their homeland.
-- Ukrainian army tells its soldiers not to tell media about its gains before they announce them
-- Biden calls meeting with intelligence agency heads to tell them to stop leaking how we're helping Ukraine.  One wonders if the secret agents are angling for more funding by being less secret.
-- Ukrainian flag still flying over Azovstal.  All living noncombatants have been evacuated.
-- Azovstal defenders realize that there is no way out for them, and surrender could only mean death after torture.  So they fight on, until the very end.
-- Just a reminder that most medieval and early modern sieges ended with the defenders marching out with their flags and arms.  You have to go back to the classical world when defenders routinely were tortured, killed, and sold into slavery.  At 75 days, this is not even a long siege by medieval standards (though many ended within a week as defenders realized they were overwhelmed).  Russia is assumed to not follow the Geneva Convention at this point, nor the code of chivalry.
-- Russian-installed governor of occupied Kherson says they will not form a (puppet) republic, but will "take advantage" of the "offer" to join the Russian Federation.
-- US planning to send more military aid to Ukraine than most countries spend on their own militaries.
-- Biden asked for $33 billion for Ukraine, Congress said no and demanded $40 billion instead
-- Biden suspends Trump's tariff on Ukrainian steel
-- Ukrainian cities are tearing down statues commemorating Russians, and renaming places like "Leo Tolstoy Station" to derussify their country.
-- In occupied Luhansk, Russians are restoring Lenin statues taken down by Ukrainians a few years back.
-- Maybe this war was about cancel culture all along?
-- Historic home of poet and philosopher, and Ukrainian nationalist Hryhorii Skovoroda destroyed by artillery.
-- Ruzzia hitting key military infrastructure like schools, hotels, shopping malls with high tech hypersonic missiles.
-- Some Russian officers not following orders to advance into Donetsk

Finally: Someone actually made a David Attenborough style voiceover for this video of a destroyed Russian tank.

[Norgarth]

Beau ofthe Fifth Column - Let's talk about the Parade in Russia and developments...

[Dartz]

Looks like Lukashenko has seen which way the wind is blowing and has finally started praising the Ukrainian army. From scuttering on about how the Russian army would win in three days, and being obviously in on Putins plans, to threatening to join the fight for weeks, to talking about how well Ukraine is doing and how well they use mobile tactics.

Not quite turning his back on his Russian master, but very much starting to edge away.

Meanwhile, Kazhakhistan (Greatest country in the world - all other countries are run by little girls) has cancelled in Victory Day celebrations in protest over the war.

Even cancer - long the enemy of western civilisation may have joined the fight. Rumours are going around that Putin may have blood cancer. Then again, these rumours seem to have come from the Ukrainian intelligence service saying they intercepted an oligarch talking about it so, snort a line of coke on this one.

[Norgarth]

UK report says Russia has lost 1/3 of combat force in Ukraine 



Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about Ukraine invading Russia...

[Dartz]

The First Draft of History Returns for the 100th day special.

--100 days into a 4 day war.
--Ukraine is still holding out - but is loosing soldiers are a rate of maybe 100 a day, with 500 wounded. (Morning Radio report here)
--People are moving back to Ukraine.
--An Post in Ireland, have started posting to Ukraine again. Ukraposhta never stopped posting to Ireland.
--Russia is still grinding slowly forward in the East through sheer weight of artillery.
--Russian artillery outranges Ukrainian artillery
--Ukrainian soldiers complain about being outgunned and not getting the right equipment -- but are still determined to fight.
--America to send multiple-rocket launch systems to enable Ukraine to outgun Russia?
--Russian attempts at river crossing have this far being approximated as throwing hundreds of people into a tree shredder and trying to drown the enemy in bits.
--But after fifteen attempts, at least one crossing seems to have made it through and begun to 'flower'
--After fifteen attempts, Russians still haven't learned to not land helicopters in range of artillery at Kherson airport.
--Severodonetsk is in danger of being cut off, with one of the two roads out of the city being under attack
--Reminder - Mariupol and Azovstal held out for over 80 days before an honourable surrender.
--It looks like the Ukrainian army may consider a withdrawal - but thousands of civilians still remain sheltering in the city.
--Cultural annihilation of the occupied territories is gathering pace
--It started with polite discouragement of protests, then shots fired in the air --- now the organisers are getting black-bagged and taken to 'filtration camps' in Russia. Those who return are -- not the same.
--This is, of course, mostly affecting Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine.
--Russia claims to have evacuated 1.5 million civilians from conflict areas
--Ukraine claims to have had 1.5 million civilians kidnapped and deported to the most desolate and inhospitable parts of Russia.
--An offensive has begun in the South to liberate Kherson -- supposedly.
--After the events of Bucha, one dreads what will be found
--Civilians returning to their homes are finding booby-traps in drinking glasses, pianos and children's sandpit
--Putin may be seriously ill. Whether he has weeks, or years to live, or whether he is going blind, impotent, has joined the ranks of monorchic hascist dictators or has siphilis depends on who you ask and what's funniest
--Putin, has only got one ball, Shoygu has two but very small.....
--Bridge over the River Dnipro to be the smash hit of 2030's cinema
--There're some reports of Russian soldiers getting fired for refusing to fight.
--But more than that -- because it's not technically a war -- that's all the can happen.
--T-62's have been spotted being sent to the front - and in the Wild
--The words 'Mobile Suicide Box' have never seemed more appropriate
--But I suppose, where there're no Javelins and you need a mobile cannon, it'll do
--At least one T-34 has been reported destroyed in the course of the conflict
--(It may have only been a statue, but still it counts).
--Depending on how bad the supply situation gets - more may follow
--A T-90M - the most modern (working) tank in the Russian arsenal has joined the ranks of the wrecked
--Rumours of the Su-57 being tested at war, remain rumours --- if it actually did anything, the propeganda machine would be sure to tell us
--Macron still talks to Putin, but is being more decisive than Scholz
--Didn't follow through on his threat to evacuate Mariupol with the Greeks though....
--Germany still can't figure out if it wants to send heavy weapons to Ukraine or not.
--Scholz seems unwilling to do anything that anyone could possible criticise.
--He is being vehemently criticised for this.
--One Ukrainian soldier is still lucky to receive a German helmet -- it saved his brain from a shell fragment
--Lithuanian Civilians raise 5 million to buy a Bayraktar for Ukraine
--Turkey gives the Bayraktar for free --- the 5 million is used to buy ammunition
--America is sending All The Shit --- reopening lend-lease
--Which hasn't kept Biden from becoming the second least popular President in US History.
--Mostly 'european' countries are sending an eclectic mix of hardware to Ukraine. Some of it may even be useful.
--One Russian soldier goes for a walk. One Ukrainian drone drops a bomb on him. One Russian casualty....
--....or so it seems, until Lazarusov gets to his feet and skuttles to some bushes. While the drone still watches.
--Watching Russian soldiers get pwned is an amusing lunctime passtime. (While humming Astronomia...)
--50 days after it came under attack by Neptune missiles ,Russian Warship Moskva is continuing its valiant effort to remain sunk.
--Russian sailors and soldiers still remain missing. Missing means not having to pay families any benefits.
--At least 30,000 Russian soldiers may be "Missing", or f they're really unlucky, "Killed while on Exercise".
--China is closing its Airspace to Russian-owned Boeing and Airbus aircraft --- on a technically of registration legality. And because russian spare parts are limited. It's a brutally pragmatic decision.
--Anything more advanced than a mechanical watch made in Russia relies on US and European semiconductors and hardware.
--That tap closed 100 days ago.
--Europe has also finally closed the oil taps. At least, banning non-pipeline imports.
--Only Hungary continues to the suck black juice from the bear's cock
--Getting the message, Russia starts shutting off the gas and electricity -- 80 days after it threatened to do so and long after Summer removed that threat of its sting.
--Sweden and Finland have applied to Join NATO
--Russia's reaction to this is a lot like an Incel's reaction to a girl he never asked out asking someone else who'se fitter, smarter, more charismatic and just not a fucking prick, out.
--Meanwhile, Zelensky promises to rebuild Mriya. It's expected to cost 800 million euro
--I doubt he expected to live this long but - he's still going. Visiting the front lines, visiting people in hospital --- being out there
--The countrast with Putin is staggering.
--Meanwhile, Ireland is trying to figure out what to do with the Ukrainian refugees it has accepted
--Most are being given places to sleep, rather than live
--In one case, a remote holiday village, kilometres from the nearest shop, in a coastal area has left families unable to find work as they can't drive, and unable to go to the shop safely as they keep getting run over on the narrow roads
--Ukrainians have begun complaining about there being fuckall to do outside urban areas, and no way to get to these urban areas by public transport and we're like.... yep, that's normal.
--People are kind, but nobody knows what to do so they're sort of in limbo.
--Meanwhile, economic inflation is running away like my waistline
--A food crisis looms, as Russia seizes grain from Ukrainian ports and demands concessions and an end to arms exports, in return for releasing it.
--Typically, it's Africa and India that'll go hungry.
--A man sings in a Chernobyl control room about how everything will be alright

-----


This has been a special one-off episode.

[classicdrogn]

I like your round-up summaries. I hope you'll continue them now and then, at what seem like milestones or just when the spirit moves you.

[Labster]

Instead of a general summary, let me just cover some of the events around the Battle of Sievierodonetsk, which is ongoing:

-- As the last major city in Donetsk not occupied by the invaders, this city is a major goal for Russia
-- Ukraine sets up a bunch of artillery in the hills around the city, across the river
-- Evacuate as much of the city as you have time to do
-- Tell everyone that things are going badly there
-- Get US intel to tell the Washington Post that this could be a turning point for the Russian offensive to start winning
-- Strategically retreat across the city, let Russia think it's winning
-- Wait until they send all of their reserves in
-- Start reeling in the lure
-- Russians start shooting each other over who gets the best loot from the city
-- Then Ukraine starts shelling the hell out of them
-- And advancing back through the city
-- Watch orcs run away faster than the British at the battle of New Orleans (I'm thinking of the song)
-- Russian soldiers are upset that they have to fight Americans (?) in the battle
-- Zelensky: we're holding out but badly outnumbered.  (You still got anyone else to send in there, Russia?)

Ukraine lured essentially all of Russia's reserves into a kill zone -- this is the local puppet government forces, the Chechens, the guys who act like special forces but are mainly just tough guys on Instagram, and of course the Siberian conscripts with bolt-action rifles and one week of training -- they basically sent everyone who wasn't tied down in other fighting into this battle. Assuming they're losing, this would mean that Russia's offensive is culminating, which is military speak for running out of reserves, and being unable to to continue the offensive without regrouping. With this, they are definitely out of trained reinforcements.