Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Labster]

With the Rasputitsa only a month away, I have to say that I've been amazed by all of the twists and turns in Season 2. Pringles doing a coup, then not doing a coup, then saying he was safe on video, then being killed the next day midair. Outstanding drama.

The latest episode, the loudmouthed Chechen that everyone loves to hate, Ramzan Kadyrov, is in a coma. So soapy, right? Even more shocking was apparently four days before the coma, he had his doctor buried alive for poisoning him. I bet you didn't see that twist coming. He has five sons -- are you ready for the 5-way succession war in season 3?

I'd love to see the liberation of Mariuopol as a season-ender, but we might have to live with Melitopol. And that will be awesome enough. But with the way we've been getting twist episodes lately, it's going to be a wild ride to get there.

[hazard]

I wouldn't be too surprised by the season ending with a suspenseful siege of Tokmak.

A bit disappointing for all the hypemen who thought Ukraine would sweep the south all the way down to Sevastopol, but frankly? Just sieging Tokmak would set the stage for the taking of most of occupied Ukraine west of it. That rail line is critical, and Russia has notable issues with road supply already.

[Norgarth]

Beau of the Fifth Column - let's talk about Ukraine and Zapp Brannigan taking command...

talking about Ukraine's unexpected method of dealing with Russia's s-400 air defence platform

[hazard]

'Throw shit at the target's defenses until they run out of ammo' is a known, if theoretical, approach to things that are known to be munition restrained, like fancy anti air missiles. Especially since said fancy anti air missiles tend to be quite an annoyance to reload.

I'm not surprised it worked. I'm surprised that there wasn't a couple of short range AA cannons for protection against this trick.

[Dartz]

That would require competence. OR spare guns. Or realising that the enemy might actually try and attack you. Russia so far seems unable to comprehend that the war is not confined to Ukraine's border - or even what it thinks is Ukraines new border. It's like an exorcise - once you're of the exorcise grounds you just stop giving a shit because you don't need to anymore.

You have gobshites going for holidays in Crimea. Buying cheap property in Mariupol.

It's a complete detachment from reality.

[classicdrogn]

It's a cliche to blame violent video games, but honestly I do blame violent video games and media in general for that, combined with the distance of seeing most things as drone footage. The latter makes it all small and impersonal, and the former has trained a generation or two that violence happening to someone tiny on the other side of the screen is entertainment and once you turn off the TV or close the tab or swipe away it has nothing to do with you or your life and plans.

edit: Especially given how much buzz was given back in early days of Ukraine tankbusters using tactics learned from video games to reliably get the pop-top turret magazine hit and cook off.

[Isodecan]

It's a cliche to blame violent video games, but honestly I do blame violent video games and media in general for that, combined with the distance of seeing most things as drone footage. The latter makes it all small and impersonal, and the former has trained a generation or two that violence happening to someone tiny on the other side of the screen is entertainment and once you turn off the TV or close the tab or swipe away it has nothing to do with you or your life and plans.

edit: Especially given how much buzz was given back in early days of Ukraine tankbusters using tactics learned from video games to reliably get the pop-top turret magazine hit and cook off.

Tactics, possibly.  On the other hand, their strategy (particularly Russia) is straight out of the sort of assumptions of moving toy soldiers around a field.

[Labster]

Day 600:  I have to confess that I have had a good deal of "Ukraine fatigue" myself, so I haven't posted any kind of update here lately.  But after seeing the war start up in Gaza, I feel I should get back to this one, because this is still the most important war.  Israel and the Middle East will still be a mess no matter how that war turns out, but if Ukraine wins, it means the end of imperialist wars — at least for a generation, but hopefully for far longer.

One thing I have done in the interim is watch Professor Timothy Snyder's History of Ukraine course, which is a taping of his classroom at Yale.  I learned so, so much about something I knew almost nothing about... which is unsurprising, given how little is known about Ukraine in general in the U.S.  Including by U.S. diplomats and generals!  If you have a have twenty or so hours to spare, it's really worth your time (though the guest lecture on Russian colonization is really skippable if you know anything at all about colonization).  If you want a short preview, here's a snippet of an interview of Prof. Synder, where he explains how this turned into a genocidal war.

One thing it gave me is a lot of context for the Canadian Parliament kerfuffle, where a Ukrainian freedom fighter was applauded by the members, and the speaker had to resign because said person fought for the Waffen SS.  But, like, of course he did!  The communists had inflicted the Holodomor on the Ukrainian people, where the collectivization of agriculture combined with ridiculously cruel policies left something like four million Ukrainians dead.  (The closest comparison is to the Irish Potato Famine; both Ukraine and Ireland mass exported food during the famine.)  Why wouldn't you, as a nationalist, fight for the army that was fighting against those who had committed a genocide on your people?  Even if they were Nazis?  (Especially if they were Nazis, since extreme nationalists like other extreme nationalists.)  Remember, very few people knew how bad the Holocaust was until the end of WWII.

Another core point is that WWII itself was fought primarily for Ukraine, at least in the European Theatre.  Germany was after Lebensraum, which meant imperial conquest.  And the land at the center of this was the rich agricultural land around Ukraine, the coal and iron Don Basin (Donbass for short), and oil fields beyond.  Poland was pretty much just in the way, even though that marked the start of the war.  And here in 2023 we see another war fought for pretty much the same reasons by another asshole nationalist dictator, seeking another genocide.


-- Main Ukrainian thrust continues near Tokmak and Robotyne.  There's been lots of fighting here, with Ukrainians taking most of the high ground, but not penetrating the next lines of defense towards Melitopol.
-- Melitopol is definitely seeing partisan action, though.  Things explode.
-- Russian offensive in Avdiivka started, oh, last week or so (sorry I haven't really been watching).  There's an attempt to close a pocket here, but there are pretty good supply lines, so it's a lot like Bakhmut.
-- 36 Russian tanks destroyed in one day outside Avdiivka becoming a total of 102 tanks and 183 armoured vehicles lost, with 2,840 troops killed
-- Soldiers plead for more body bags.  Orcs earning their name as orcs.
-- Bahkmut continues to see offensives from both sides.  Is there anything worth fighting over left?
-- Apparently Putin ordered the military to take Donetsk by the end of the year, which explains why
-- It seems like Ukraine has an artillery advantage in Avdiivka, and getting close to parity in the entire war.  Several reasons why this deficit was overcome:
---- HIMARS go boom
---- West slowly gives Ukraine more arty, longer range
---- Russian barrels shot so much, they wore out
---- Ukraine keeps getting new barrels from German steel; Russia can't make this high grade steel now
---- Russian national myth is about how they won WWII, (un)conveniently forgetting the absurd amounts of American artillery and armor given to the Soviets
-- Ukranians missile strike an ammo train, cutting off supplies to the southern front for a couple days.  Railroads can be rebuilt in hours, train wrecks take days.
-- Ukrainians launch flag on balloons.  Russians shoot at floating flag.  Ukrainians shoot at revealed Russian location.
-- Russia's Black Sea Fleet has abandoned Crimea, leaving Sebastopol for the safety of Novorossiysk.
-- The Russian Navy has always sucked, but other nations with navies are going to look really seriously at anti-drone warfare now
-- Predictions are that Russia's economy will start to really suffer by 2025, and arms will run out by 2026.
-- Honestly everyone is looking at the drones.  If Russia starts jamming drones effectively, we may get the autonomous killbots we always dreamed about.
-- We're closing on 290k Russian dead, which is a lot of Ivans.
-- Russians make more nuclear threats lol
-- Let's take a quick detour to Armenia, where Armenia ceded their historic lands in Karabakh to Azerbaijan (it's also historic Azeri land), almost overnight.  Russia's security guarantee for Armenia turned out to be worth nothing as Russia has overextended itself.
-- Armenia already making noises about joining the West.  The government that betrayed Nagorno-Karabakh may not last, but in their eyes Russia did an much worse betrayal.
-- 243 Ukrainians trapped in Gaza
-- Another thing from that class: Greeks and Jews are the oldest documented inhabitants of what is now Ukraine.
-- Russians were pretty quick to blame Hamas' attacks on arms given to Ukraine.  It's possible some captured arms made the path US -> Ukraine -> Russia -> Iran -> Hamas in order to embarrass Ukraine, but it's more likely Russian propagandists are talking out their ass.
-- Israel is in the odd spot of being an ally of both Russia and the United States, the former largely due to similar interests in Syria.
-- US House of Representatives continues to not operate, but having passed a lend-lease bill earlier, Biden doesn't actually need budget to "lend" arms to Ukraine
-- Russia suspended from the Olympics again, this time for taking over local Olympic councils from occupied Ukraine
-- Lists of properties to restore electrical power to first for the FSB is basically a leak of FSB facilities and safe houses.  Infosec is hard.
-- Occupied Ukraine sees billboard in classic smiling propaganda style offering kids' summer camp in the North Korean Rus'.  Implication: behave or we'll send your kids to Korea.
-- Do you like big animated musical numbers with a huge cast of characters?  How about Wagner's Prigozhin?  How about together?  The Kremlin Presents: A Rumor in Rostov-on-Don!  (youtube, reddit -- use whichever video actually works for you).

[Bob Schroeck]

Is Putin dead? A Russian Telegram channel and a prominent Russian political analyst both claim he died almost a week ago and the Putin seen since then is a body double who has been getting a lot of work recently while the real Putin's health went downhill. The article's worth reading as despite being an opinion piece it doesn't take a stand on the truth or falseness of the claim, but basically analyzes all the possible motives for making it, and the possible consequences.

[hazard]

One of the forums I'm on is of the opinion Putin is still alive and well, or at least well enough, because we aren't seeing enough of a furor at the top level of Russia's government.

[Labster]

I must admit I got some Ukraine fatigue, and haven't found a lot of time to post updates here.  But I just thought I should mention this one:

Putin stokes tensions with US, declares 1867 sale of Alaska 'illegal'.  If you recall, this is how things started with Crimea.

The war has pretty much devolved to positional warfare, which you should read as resembling the Great War. Fortified lines, no way easy way to break through.  The winter has been essentially a stalemate.  The second Battle of Avdiivka continues, with the Russian's human wave attacks for some reason not working against armor and a giant slag pile.  The Russians have recently seen some progress and have advanced a few blocks here, at the cost of at least 40,000 men and a wide range of equipment.

There was also the video of two Ukrainian personnel carriers taking out a Russian main battle tank which massively outgunned them.  Apparently the drivers learned to blind the tank's optics from playing War Thunder, the video game most widely known for having players that constantly leak classified military documents while discussing the game's realism.  This is also on theme where Western equipment overperforms and Russian equipment underperforms, if it operates at all.

The US Congress continues to be barely functional, but Europe is providing more aid.  Having Donald Tusk as PM of Poland will help Ukraine -- or at least it will help my sanity.  France is sending 50 guided bombs a month.  Even Italy is sending arms while having a right-populist coalition running things.

Russians say that Ukranians shot down a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs.  At least one of the soldiers on the list of those killed was previously exchanged with Ukraine and is quite alive and well.

We're in basically the stalemate we expected: superior manpower of Russia continues to be a threat, but not enough to surpass superior equipment and training of Ukranians.  Losses are bad on both sides.  Without sending more arms, Ukraine can lose; with more arms, Ukraine can win.  Russia has still already lost this war, both in terms of prestige, reputation of its arms, killed off the most experienced parts of its army (and weirdly also navy), and is still suffering under sanctions.  The sanctions are finally starting to hurt -- this is the clock that Putin is playing against.  Once domestic industries run out of key components, things will get worse and worse.

Also, drones, rockets, and sabotage are hurting industries on both sides.  Lots of stuff catching on fire due to smoking Ivans.  How will Russia rebuild without global economic support?  And what will they have to give to China in order to get basic industry from their ally of last resort?  This is, incidentally, the same damn lesson of the world wars: the factories you lose are worth more than any land and population you could gain by winning a war of conquest.  It sucks that it's edging closer to total war, but that's what happens when we don't send our allies what they need from the beginning.

[Norgarth]

Russians say that Ukranians shot down a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs.  At least one of the soldiers on the list of those killed was previously exchanged with Ukraine and is quite alive and well.

I heard about this yesterday, and that Ukraine's info said it was carrying missiles for Russia's air-defence units.

My thoughts on hearing the 2 versions was "Well, can we backtrack where the plane came from?  And if so, is that location  more likely to be a source of prisoners or ammo?

the idea that Putin was making shit up (again) is no surprise.  No wonder Trump likes him so much, they both pull wild claims out of their ass on a hourly basis to support their position of the moment.

[aku]

Putin stokes tensions with US, declares 1867 sale of Alaska 'illegal'.  If you recall, this is how things started with Crimea.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/putin-alaska-illegal/ rates it as false.

[hazard]

Russians say that Ukranians shot down a plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs.  At least one of the soldiers on the list of those killed was previously exchanged with Ukraine and is quite alive and well.

I heard about this yesterday, and that Ukraine's info said it was carrying missiles for Russia's air-defence units.

My thoughts on hearing the 2 versions was "Well, can we backtrack where the plane came from?  And if so, is that location  more likely to be a source of prisoners or ammo?

the idea that Putin was making shit up (again) is no surprise.  No wonder Trump likes him so much, they both pull wild claims out of their ass on a hourly basis to support their position of the moment.

IIRC, it was tracked to having just taken off from Belgorod, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was empty, but was delivering ammunition on the way in.

[Labster]

Day 700 of a 3 day war. Technically it's been 2.8 days on Venus so final Russian victory may be in sight.

After saying that Hungary would not be the last country to approve Sweden for NATO, Hungary is now the last country that has not yet approved Sweden for NATO. I have no idea what Turkey got for their approval, probably cloudberries or reindeer antlers or something.

Russian army remains a mass of untrained conscripts whose behavior most closely resembles that of a host of orcs. US Congressman average brain size still resembles a walnut.

[robkelk]

...  I have no idea what Turkey got for their approval, probably cloudberries or reindeer antlers or something. ...

Hey, cloudberries are tasty. I can see them caving for a supply of jam.

[Labster]

The main news today is that Valery Zalushny is out as head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Oleksandr Syrsky is now in.  Shoigu!  Gerosimov!  Are you seeing this?  It's been rumoured for the past week or two and it's hard to say exactly why he was pushed out.  There was some rumbling that Zalushy was in trouble for calling the war a stalemate (it is) in public, which then yesterday Zelensky said the same thing so that was out.  Perhaps it was the speaking in public part, where he felt Zalushny could become a political threat -- he's certainly beloved and charming, if not quite as attractive as Zelensky.  Or perhaps it's just looking for a change in strategy in a stalemate of a war, which is hardly unknown in warfare.

Syrsky is a guy who goes back to the old Soviet military, unlike Zalushny, which surprisingly makes him a more ardent reformer due to experience.  He's been called the Butcher for the way he led the defense of Bakhmut.  Ulysses S. Grant also had that title bestowed prior to assuming leadership of the Union Army, which was a fairly good decision in the U.S. Civil War.

Also Tucker Carlson has an interview of Vladimir Putin already in the can, which will be Foxed out soon enough.  Expect Tucker to be nodding blithely while Putin explains how he is fighting the globohomo conspiracy.

[Dartz]

It doesn't sound like a dismissal in disgrace, or a dismissal in panic.

It's a "We're going in another direction".... sort of like an 'honourable' firing where it's not through failure or malpractice, but a different set of skills or mindset needed. Does that actually happen?

[hazard]

Also, Ukraine is standing up a new force dedicated completely to drone warfare.

And yes, 'I do not think this general is suited to the job I want him to do' is fairly common in times of war, as is 'this general has been at it for more than a year and it is affecting his judgement/health/wellbeing, let us remove him from his command, spend a few months on R&R, before we assign him a new one'.

[classicdrogn]

I can surely see the rationale for either of those, bur especially the second. The sheer level of stress involved in being in the chair where the buck stops for a relatively small border nation faced with a Russian invasion, even if their equipment turned out to have been shit even before the kleptocracy took its cut...

[hazard]

Well, here is the thing about a lot of the Russian equipment.

In Ukrainian hands it generally works just fine.

The problem isn't necessarily the equipment as much as the operators.

[Labster]

There have been pretty bad reviews of Tucker Carlson's interview of Putin.  I guess the first half hour was a history lesson, and I use "lesson" very loosely.  I mean, obviously the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact was signed to protect Czechoslovakia from the dastardly Poles... one year after Germany annexed Czechoslovakia.

Because the interview was 2+ hours long, and had very little content containing actual facts, let's just summarize it with some memes:

[Dartz]

We are now 731 days into Russia's 3-day war.

--American political fuckery is holding up aid to Ukraine
--EU leaders visit Ukraine in solidarity
--Go home to their mansions
--Orban blocks statement on solidarity from EU Commission.
--Navalny's dead. Supposedly through natural causes according to Ukrainian intelligent
--Russian 'elections' loom. Putin is pushing hard for victories.
--Victories come at horrific toll
--Ukraine admits to taking 31,000 casualties. Numbers likely higher.
--Russian casualties are somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000.
--Generally, they've been running a 1:6 k/d in their favour - possibly as high as 1:10
--Russia just feeds the meat in until the bullets run out. It's grotesquely effective.
--Russian casualties are also far more likely to become fatalities - left for the crows, or to be looted by their 'comrades'.
--As a result, Avdiivka finally falls
--Russia finally conquers a rubble pile
--In better news, Henry Kissenger still valiantly clings to death.
--Ukraine's been geeking some expensive things lately
--A Mainstay Awacs, a couple of Su-34, another Russian landing craft.
--They sank it on Valentines day. It was named after a Russian killed on valentines day
--Meanwhile, Ukraine's changing leadership at the top. It remains to be seen what the impact of this is
--Otherwise, it's nichts neues im osten
--The war has become tragically normal.
--Isreals 'self defense' and Iranian shenanigans are attracting the world's attention
--And just how brain damaged is America going to get in the next six months?

[Mamorien]

--In better news, Henry Kissenger still valiantly clings to death.

I don't think even Eric Idle could pretend genuinely to be missing him at this point. *Francisco Franco intensifies*

--And just how brain damaged is America going to get in the next six months?

You realize, of course, that when you ask questions like that, you run the very real risk of getting answers. I'm only telling you this as a threat friend.

[Labster]

Let me do a quick summary of the last month in in European defence diplomacy:

-- Year 10 of a 3 year war rolled around
-- Trump opened his talk hole and said that as President he wouldn't defend NATO countries who didn't "pay up", and also that he'd encourage Russia to attack "delinquent" countries
-- Naturally this lit a fire under everyone's ass.
-- John Bolton, aging neocon idol and "blow up 10 floors of the UN building" guy, said that Trump definitely wants to leave NATO, and they were only barely able to talk him out of it a few years back
-- So Trump is like: let's give up our global hegemony to extort more money?  I mean, there's stupid and there's dangerously stupid.
-- France (Macron anyway) has been talking about increasing defence spending for Europe
-- Hungary, who swore they wouldn't be last to approve Sweden, was the last country to approve Sweden's entry into NATO
-- Sweden arrives fashionably late, looks around, wondering if the party is already over
-- US Congress continue to be incapable
-- Yes, that's where the sentence was supposed to end
-- Macron mentions that nothing is off the table in supporting Ukraine, including sending troops to Ukraine
-- Olaf Scholz says that French and British soldiers are already fighting in Ukraine because how else could they operate the missiles?  In reality though, Ukrainians can be trained on big machines
-- Russia issues this week's nuclear threat in response
-- USA says no, we're not sending any troops to Ukraine, obviously!
-- Lithuania and Estonia governments start saying that it would be a good idea to send troops to help Ukraine
-- Canada's Defence Minister says he wants to send "noncombat" troops to Ukraine
-- Major Conscriptovich wins medal for conquest of Avdiivka, having been field promoted from Private Conscriptovich after everyone else around him died in the assault

TL;DR: things make no damn sense these days