Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Labster]

Map is mostly up to date, but apparently today Korenevo has been encircled, meaning Ukranians control all of the roads to the city, though not all of the land.  They are advancing towards Lgov, a rail hub, just off the top of the map above near the center.  Russians have already stopped all trains from Belarus into southern Russia, which says that logistics are already breaking -- remember, they do all of their logistics through train lines, and pallets are unknown technology.

Meanwhile, the Russians captured the City of New York.

Shibboleth news, 2024: Russians can't pronounce a loaf of bread in Ukrainian.

A ten minute video from a Ukrainian journalist visiting Sudzha.  I guess the locals speak something between Russian and Ukrainian, enough to be called khokhols by the Moskals.  It's pretty far from the front by now, it's just a few shot up government buildings, largely intact residences, and a bunch of poor older people who weren't even informed of the evacuation.  If you did find out, you had to drive your own car to leave, which not everyone possessed.  They get food from the Ukrainians, but don't have running water, gas, or electricity.

Oh, and since that was filmed, the Lenin statue has mysteriously gone missing:

[DHBirr]

"Cry 'Havoc', and let slip the dogs of war!"  Not R2D2, but BAD2, standing for "Brit Alliance Dog." Robot dog, that is.

-------
“We’ve had our differences, but he’s seen the light … and I made sure he moved toward it, instead of coming back.”

[Labster]

Day 913 of a war lost 910 days ago...

It seems that Ukraine has taken out all three of the bridges across the Seym in Kursk Oblast, as well as a hastily built pontoon bridge.  Russians are, however, free to reinforce from the south, by taking their troops out of Ukraine.  Otherwise, it seems like it will be relatively easy to occupy the southern half of Kursk Oblast, though not Kursk itself.

The one key piece of Russian infrastructure they have captured is the natgas distribution center.  Ukraine has its Foot on Gazprom's Throat is one headline.  Since the Nord Stream was blown up by freedom fighters, it turns out all of the gas Russia sells to Europe goes through Ukraine.  But with this, they have captured the metering station inside Russia, which effectively means Ukraine can mess with the numbers, and thus set the price that Europe pays for Russia's gas.  Ukraine is still making money from Russia on transit fees, so it's very weird all around.

That said, the Ukrainian government has finally admitted why they invaded Kursk:

With 1250 square kilometers of the #Kursk region under control, Ukraine's Defence Forces still have not found a single red line. The search operation continues.

Wikipedia: Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The oil storage fire in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast, continues to burn – what are we, five days into a special incindiary operation?  Currently: [https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/182...8](Twitter link)

? 15 oil tanks completely destroyed;
? 3 oil tanks partially destroyed;
? 25 oil tanks not destroyed;
? 33 in unknown condition.

There is no need to evacuate, air quality is fine.  Cue Dartz saying something about Soviet radiation exposure.

One year ago yesterday, we lost Prigozhin to an "airplane accident".  It kind of feels like Russia has been doing worse since they took out the head of Wagner PMC.  A terrible man, but I still kind of miss Chef Boyar anyway.

This Machine Gun-Equipped Cybertruck Might Just Be the Worst Technical Ever.  (Note: in military speak, a "technical" is a pickup truck with a gun mounted on it.)  Chechen warlord and military larper Ramzan Kadyrov says that he received this Cybertruck from Elon Musk himself.  On the one hand, Kadyrov is an inveterate liar; on the other, Elon really is dumb enough to give him one.  Good luck charging it on the battlefield – as if Kadyrov would ever get close to a real battle.

-- The Ukraine legislators finally passed a law to ban the Russian Orthodox Church.  All of those poor parishioners will have no FSB agents to take their confession.
-- No, really.
-- Ukrainian independence day Google doodle
-- Russia faces manpower woes after failing to stop Ukraine’s Kursk incursion - it's hard to use all your manpower when doing so could collapse your regime
-- On a river between Ukraine and the EU, border guards search for draft evaders - draft dodgers contribute to Ukraine's manpower problems
-- Russian salient from Avdiivka (remember that shithole?) advances 30km, is now only 10km from Pokrovsk, a minor nexus of supply lines

[hazard]

Strictly speaking, a technical is a civilian vehicle with any weapon mounted on it, for use as a combat vehicle.

'Pickup truck with a machinegun' is iconic though, because such vehicles usually are rugged, have good off road handling, the load beds offer space to put and handle a weapon, and machineguns are both useful and relatively cheap to purchase, maintain and operate.

But it could also carry a grenade thrower or missile rack/tube, for example.


Which means that yes, that cybertruck is an absolutely shit technical, low range, expensive, useless load bed...

[Labster]

I mean, the article I posted had a link to a shopping cart technical, which is just *chef's kiss*

Anyway some news stories:

-- Traffic cameras in Kursk issue fines to Russians trying to outrun drones
-- More Americans want the US to stay the course in Ukraine as long as it takes according to recent polling
-- Russian cruise missile takes out entire school, all of the fish in the school floated to the surface.
-- Despite punitive, massive barrage of missiles, they're floundering.
-- Ukrainians regain some positions near Kreminna, Russians advance towards Pokrovsk.
-- India's Modi visits with Zelensky in Kyiv.  Both men pretend to like each other.
-- Modi is setting himself up to be the peacemaker, as India is the closest to neutral power in this war.
-- Belarusian troops mass on southern border, start painting their military vehicles with a big letter B, in an obvious feint.
-- Oil depot fire still burning
-- Image: Hatsune Miku defends Ukraine

[robkelk]

Starlink-branded hardware reportedly found amid wreckage of downed Russian drone

Elon Musk insists that the units aren't sold in Russia, and that Starlink won't work in the country.

But Moscow has ways of avoiding bans – as does Iran – and could have found a way to build Starlink-equipped kit that only becomes active once it crosses the border into Ukraine where SpaceX's service is allowed.

As everyone except Vladimir Putin seems to understand, Ukraine is not Russia.

[Dartz]

They served in life. Now they're served in Death

Allegedly.

Between the Mobik's cube and that video I saw last night of the writhing remnants of a torso desperately trying to kick away from a spreading fuel fire under a truck using legs it no longer had. And his mate desperately trying to kick out after being pinned under the chassis by what was left of his mate....

...... maybe a little less of this......

[robkelk]

Canada made it illegal to ship microelectronics to Russia. So why isn't the law being enforced?

[GethN7]

I rarely comment on this topic anywhere because, just to make it clear, I side with neither side, my primary concern, if any, is for the innocents on both sides who get caught in the middle.

That said, I have to wonder just how long both sides can keep this up. Russia and Ukraine are just going to wear each other down to the nub and I wonder what will be left when it's over.

[Inquisitive Raven]

It looks like Putin might be tanking Russia's economy for a long time to come keeping this war going.

[Dartz]

I rarely comment on this topic anywhere because, just to make it clear, I side with neither side, my primary concern, if any, is for the innocents on both sides who get caught in the middle.

That said, I have to wonder just how long both sides can keep this up. Germany and France are just going to wear each other down to the nub and I wonder what will be left when it's over.

Pretty much the same energy.

Russia went into Ukraine on a good old take their shit colonising war of  conquest. They deserve to be defeated.

There is a positive outcome from this, one which we all want on some level and one which requires unpleasant things to happen to ordinary russian conscripts and ordinary russian citizens. And some dreadfully unpleasant things happen to them. They are finding extreme ways to die. 

There was one video of a meat sausage trying to kick away from the fuel fire it was cooking in using legs that were no longer there.  Or the one pinned by his thrashing sausage-creature under the chassis of a burning truck. Or the crispy critter that crawled out of the drivers hatch of a tank that brewed up - after the fire died down. Or the two blown to pieces when the drone dropped in on them while one fellated the other. Or, perhaps, the one launched fucking orbital when the building he was standing on blew up. Or the stunned look of terminal surprise in a hundred faces when they turn around to see the FPV coming straight at them - as if they could never believe it would happen to them. Or that they've started cannibalising their dead. Or the wounded ones who know no-one's coming to rescue them, so beg for a mercy kill by slapping the side of their head. Or those who know what Russia does to captured Ukrainians and fear the same fate - so they save the last bullet for themselves.

And all of them watched by the cold eye of the drone high above.

And that, nowadays, most of them are volunteers. The old contraktniks who started the war are dead. The PMC's like Wagner are either dead, or signed contracts. The original mobiks are definitely dead - gone home crushed, cubed and palletised. The criminals dredged from the prisons are dead. When presented with an argument from the Communist Party (The original, Soviet Union, communist party) that offering amnesty to criminals sent to the front was a bad idea - the Russian government's response could be paraphrased as "We don't expect them to live long enough to enjoy it". All you've got left are people attracted by signing bonuses and death bonuses larger than a year's salary, and the lottery chance that they might live long enough to collect it. (They won't)

And now that, because they can't win on the battlefield they've started intentionally targetting civilian shopping centres, schools and hospitals with guided munitions with an evil abandon. At least some countries pretend like there's a legitimate target living in the refugee camp before they send the dronestrike in... Russia doesn't even put that fig leaf in it.

There is no both sides. Russia must be defeated as quickly as possible. Its armies must be crushed and sent home. It's economy sent down the toilet. It must become an ex-country. It must come cap-in hand to the world for forgivness. Only then will this not be repeated in 20 years time (Like the last time).

Meanwhile, the ordinary russian citizenry are cheering for it. Or don't give a shit. Until the war comes for them - and then it's "What did we do to deserve this?"

[Norgarth]

 

And that, nowadays, most of them are volunteers. The old contraktniks who started the war are dead. The PMC's like Wagner are either dead, or signed contracts. The original mobiks are definitely dead - gone home crushed, cubed and palletised. The criminals dredged from the prisons are dead. When presented with an argument from the Communist Party (The original, Soviet Union, communist party) that offering amnesty to criminals sent to the front was a bad idea - the Russian government's response could be paraphrased as "We don't expect them to live long enough to enjoy it". All you've got left are people attracted by signing bonuses and death bonuses larger than a year's salary, and the lottery chance that they might live long enough to collect it. (They won't)

Actually it sounds like most of the Russian troops are conscripts rather than volunteers. Up to close to a million intakes since the start of the invasion. 

Judging by the video Raven linked, the troops don't want to be there, Putin has essentially grabbed them and throw them at Ukraine.  And he keeps having to up the maximum conscription age because he's running short of warm bodies. 

The video also indicated that he's fucking up the Russian economy in the process,  they've got more jobs that need doing than there are people to do them (and that was before the latest draft)  Foreign workers aren't entering Russia for fear of being drafted, people who are currently eligible (or slightly above the current limit) for conscription are likely pondering fleeing the country before their number gets called,  and let's not forget the mountains of vehicles and weaponry Russia has already lost and needs to replace. 

Sooner or later Russia's economy is gonna collapse like a jenga tower as Putin keeps pulling blocks to try and build up the war effort (and his ego)

[GethN7]

I rarely comment on this topic anywhere because, just to make it clear, I side with neither side, my primary concern, if any, is for the innocents on both sides who get caught in the middle.

That said, I have to wonder just how long both sides can keep this up. Germany and France are just going to wear each other down to the nub and I wonder what will be left when it's over.

Pretty much the same energy.

Norgath, no offense Dartz, did a better job of replying to my question.

The way I see it, no matter who wins, both sides are coming out poorer for this. Either Ukraine or Russia is going to exhaust itself pouring blood and treasure into this conflict that basically started over Ukraine getting a little too close to others besides Russia and Russia being really determined to keep Ukraine under its sphere of influence.

I take a long-term historical view on this because I've read up enough on war to understand it sucks even when fought for the best of reasons. And I'm not for either side on this because frankly, I just despise bloodshed on sheer principle, would rather both sides find a modus vivendi, and simply would desire some world stability.

I'm going to bow out of this topic again after this, but I want to reiterate I'm no jingoist and would rather see any effusion of blood end ASAP for the sake of both countries and the world at large.

[hazard]

There is a very simple way for this war to end very quickly.

Ukraine surrenders. Not Russia, Ukraine, because Putin will not permit Russia to surrender, he would be lucky if all that does is he gets to retire to his nice dacha in the woods. Russian autocrats are not that lucky, he'd fall out of a window. He will break Russia to save his own life.

But we know what will happen should Ukraine surrender. Russia has shown it, time and time and time again. They showed it in the first days of the war and they have not relented. It might take years, it might take decades, but at the end of it, there would not be a Ukrainian left, each and every single one of them would have been murdered, their children either dead with them or abducted and turned into good little Russians.

If Russia wins, only one side will come out the poorer from it. And it would not be Ukraine, as Ukraine would no longer exist and thus cannot be poorer than it was before.

If the bloodshed of the Russia-Ukraine War is to end any time soon, Ukraine must be victorious with its territory intact.

[robkelk]

RIP Viktoriia Roshchyna, Ukrainian journalist who went missing from Russian-occupied territory in August 2023. Died in Russian custody; no cause of death given. Age 27.

[Labster]

I haven't done an update for a while, and thought I should as there's a bit of gloom and doom in the news lately about Ukraine, because Russia has been making significant gains in strategic areas lately.  But, not that significant:

The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver—emphasizing how generally stagnant Russian advances have been after over two and half years of war.  Recent Western reporting linking the Russian rate of advance in September 2024 with Russian advances at the start of the war is highly misleading.
source

The short version is that while the advance around Vuhledar is a defeat for Ukraine, it's still a long front with little movement.  Operations are picking up speed to try to lock in some gains for Russia before winter sets in — any momentum will be seasonal and thus short-lived.

General-interest media continues to cover this war terribly, much worse than they cover other topics -- and almost like they cover sport, but without the great columnists.  Wars of attrition don't have turning points very often, which makes for three possibilities: boring coverage, depressing coverage, or hyperbolic coverage.  Guess which one gets picked the most.  Military-focused publications have boring coverage, which is what I tend to like — I can't handle too many stories from the front line.

Geopolitics has a big influence on attritional warfare, since how long you can endure depends a lot on outside aid.  So it's worth noting that The People's Best Republic of North Korea has sent soldiers to fight for Russia, at numbers of around ten thousand according to intelligence sources.  The DPRK is perhaps the most militarized society on Earth.  South Korea has its men do a year of national service, nearly all in the military.  North Korea has its men do eight years of military service, and its women do five years of military service.  It's a country that is always at full mobilization.  Korean lives being lost instead of Russian lives takes pressure off of Russia, and reduces their attrition.  So it's not surprising that South Korea is now looking for ways to help Ukraine and weaken their own enemy.  So Ukraine is now really just a proxy war of the Korean War, which has never officially ended.

Also, now that Russia is relying on foreign armies, it opens the door to other countries directly aiding Ukraine.  So far no one has stepped up (/me looks at Poland), but the precedent has been set.  Russia of course will say it will nuke any countries that help Ukraine, but eh, he's not gonna.  Lukashenko is still finding excuses for Belarus not to join.

Next door to Ukraine, Moldovans voted to seek entry to the European Union, in a mirror image of the Brexit vote -- that is to say, a very narrow vote seeking entry.  Transnistrians were allowed to vote as well, which when combined with the customs of the area led to the expected level of corruption — the BBC managed to catch one voter asking the poll worker where she could get paid for the vote she just cast.  All of which is to say it's a long road ahead to accession.  But bringing some trade rules into harmony with the EU has already been profitable.

Across the Pontus, Georgia also had an election of its own, where the government says that the government won a clear victory, and they will be tilting away from Europe.  Basically all of the other parties pulled together to fight the authoritarian Georgia Dream party, like recently happened in Poland... and the coalition lost.  So now a pro-Russia party won, despite the fact that Russians, er I mean Ossetian seperatists are occupying part of their country.  There have been fairly large protests saying the election was rigged.  I don't know enough to say.  Only recently have I started caring about Georgia as I began writing a fanfic about a Georgian character (Caster from Fate/stay night), though obviously I made "Georgia on my Mind" jokes prior to this.

All eyes are on America at this point, with next week's election.  If Harris becomes President, we can expect resumption of arms and aid to Ukraine, which has been on hold most of this year.  A Trump presidency would likely mean that the US would begin backing the Russians instead of the Ukrainians, though in the next couple months, I'd expect to see a lot of military equipment being declared "obsolete" and therefore worth $0, and so shipped on to Ukraine by Biden.  Ukraine could still win without US support, but it would be much harder.  Countries in Europe should definitely consider doubling their military spending if Trump rises again, as a hedge against the US leaving NATO.  Just because it would be history's greatest strategic blunder doesn't mean he won't do it.

[classicdrogn]

"History's greatest strategic blunder? Hold my beer. This'll be great, we're gonna make history!" -Donald Trump, probably

[Labster]

I want to make a quick detour into Russian culture here, just to lighten the mood.  Unfortunately, Russia is actually a real country that people unfortunately live in.

You know that old puzzle about getting 1 cent that doubles daily? Russia fines Youtube 2e36 rubles for not hosting their government propaganda.  Thanks to a previous, unrelated lawsuit, Randall Munroe explained that this amount is worth more than the entire Earth.  Soon the fine will increase to a google of roubles.  Anyway fines like these are a normal thing that normal countries do, right?

‘Putin’s Favorite Witch’ Suddenly Falls Foul of the Kremlin.  Apparently on charges of extremism and offending religious believers.  Maybe her spells to aid the troops were actually curses in disguise?

Beloved 'Russian spy whale' Hvaldimir is found dead under mysterious circumstances.  More coverage on the beluga at Wikipedia.

The Stargate/Russia crossover no one expected, by 4chan as archived on Reddit.  Not sure whether to post this on politics images, crossovers that should not be, or here, but I'm writing this post now.

Maybe Russia is reconsidering their stance on witches?


Finally, an image of modern warfare:

[classicdrogn]

You know that old puzzle about getting 1 cent that doubles daily? Russia fines Youtube 2e36 rubles for not hosting their government propaganda.  Thanks to a previous, unrelated lawsuit, Randall Munroe explained that this amount is worth more than the entire Earth.  Soon the fine will increase to a google of roubles.  Anyway fines like these are a normal thing that normal countries do, right?

I expect that depends entirely on whose valuation of the ruble you believe. If you could buy two cabbages and a pair of counterfeit Levis with it in Poland, let alone Ukraine, I'd be shocked.

[Labster]

I expect that depends entirely on whose valuation of the ruble you believe. If you could buy two cabbages and a pair of counterfeit Levis with it in Poland, let alone Ukraine, I'd be shocked.

I get the joke here, but this debt could not be paid off even in Zimbabwe dollars.

---

Ukraine Update: The Next Big Battle Carries Real Consequences - Unlike many of the cities and towns touted as major captures by Russia, Pokrovsk is now only 5 kilometers away from the the front lines, and it is a major supply hub for Donetsk.  If they can't secure the front before winter sets in, there will be tough choices ahead on the Ukrainian side.

Yesterday's ISW assessment includes a note about what Patriarch Kirill has been saying, excoriating Russians who don't care about helping the war effort.  The 3-day special operation is going so well that everyone needs to pitch in and do their bit, it seems.  But he then goes on to blame all of the war crimes on "neo-pagans" who have infiltrated Russia's armed forces.  That's right, neo-pagan preachers are trying to revive paganism and instill a "cult of brute force and cruelty” in Russia.  So who is a neo-pagan in Russia?  According to a guy on Russia's Security Council, Jews in Chabad are a neo-pagan cult seeking world domination.  If the Russians really want to fight Nazis, maybe try turning the guns 180°?

In Russia, good Christians believe things like Nuclear Orthodoxy.  St. Seraphim of Sarov has been declared the patron saint of Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is especially convenient since the USSR destroyed part of his monastery to build a nuclear research town.  The Russian Orthodox Church teaches believers that the nukes will be important to take care of the forces of Satan at the end of the world, during the Second Coming.

[classicdrogn]

In Russia, good Christians believe things like Nuclear Orthodoxy.  St. Seraphim of Sarov has been declared the patron saint of Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is especially convenient since the USSR destroyed part of his monastery to build a nuclear research town.  The Russian Orthodox Church teaches believers that the nukes will be important to take care of the forces of Satan at the end of the world, during the Second Coming.

Wasn't there a HFY!/AFY! webnovel about that on... well, this is the politics subforrum, so I'll call it like it is... one of the spinoff sites the people too far-right for SpaceBattles spawned I can never keep track of? Intended as a trilogy but some ass plaguarized and "published" the first book under their own name so the actual autor rushed the ending on book teo, didn't start book thtree, and SB added the members-only original fiction section to be a place that was "private enough" for legal purposes, or something like that.

I, ah... for all I may joke about wanting funding for super-science programs and genuinely think more budget for basic research would continue to yield practical intermediate to long term results we haven't yet even seen a glimmer of in the new century as with the old, basing national policy on someone's militaria fanfiction is not even a plausible excuse, let alone a good idea. Like, I'm sure there are actual blue-sky contingency plans for a hostile alien invasion, but "GIANT! STOMPY! ROBOTS!" and "put the POTUS in a fighter jet with a washed up crop-duster as his wingman to nuke the mothership" are not going to be among them.

[nemonowan]

I expect that depends entirely on whose valuation of the ruble you believe. If you could buy two cabbages and a pair of counterfeit Levis with it in Poland, let alone Ukraine, I'd be shocked.

I get the joke here, but this debt could not be paid off even in Zimbabwe dollars.

Does it say something that Russia's tribunals have sunk to the depths of Duckburg's?

[classicdrogn]

Well, life is certainly like a hurricane thereabouts these days - wide scale destruction, lots of injury and death, overwhelming amounts of wind -- though that last is more the political kind and distinctly targeted rather than an impersonal force of nature.

[Labster]

I mean, if we're going to look at the laws of Duckburg, Calisota, I might as well bring up Carl Barks' The Golden Helmet where possessing a certain helmet of Eric the Red means that under International Law you are the rightful owner of North America.  If you have a sneaky enough attorney, of course.  A great story about how power corrupts (but even Don Rosa, who is pretty comfortable continuing a 1950s vibe, felt the need to back off a little in his sequel and actually mention the people in North America first).

But like... a good 50% of the argument of why Ukraine belongs to Russia is that Vladimir, who was actually a Viking called Valdemar, was baptized in Kyiv in the 980s and therefore the land of the Russian Orthodox is naturally all theirs.  Which is pressing a Viking claim from centuries earlier than the Vinland expedition, and like The Golden Helmet being claimed by people who had fuckall to do with anyone involved in that history.  And there's a good reason why Moscovites didn't have much to do with it:

[Labster]

Today is Day 1000 of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its big invasion of Ukraine, and we had the 3 day trip to Kyiv that is now longer than three Venusian days.  The war crimes, the convoy to nowhere, and all of the stolen toilets began that day.

Actually, I'm going to take a bit of a detour here, because I've been watching a documentary series called Dates that made History on the Amazon, and one of the questions it asks for important historical events is "what makes an event?" and "why this particular day?"  Even if something big happened, there's a good deal of social construction around what dates we choose to remember.

In this case, the war didn't even begin 1000 days ago, it began in February 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. (Both times breaking the Olympic Truce, but in 2014 during Russia's own Olympics).  Or maybe the war really got started at the Euromaidan in November 2013, when protesters caused the pro-Russian government to fall and definitely set a course for Ukraine towards Europe.  Maybe war was inevitable by that point.  Honestly, I think I would set the Maidan protests as the key event which precipitated everything.

But then I see comments on Reddit like "The 1000th day of a ten-year invasion that has been going on for centuries."  This is kind of true, but kind of hyperbole.  Ukraine is something of a crossroads for peoples of history.  Proto-Indo-European likely emerged from the Pontic Steppes, and spread outwards with the people and their horses.  The first documented peoples in Ukraine were the Greeks and Israelites.  Ukraine marked the northeasternmost boundaries of the Roman sphere, and the westernmost extent of the Mongol Empire.  The Crimean tatars still live there today, as are the Romanians next door in Moldova.  The Bulgars moved through Ukraine, from the Volga to Bulgaria, as did many other groups in the Migration Period.  Kyiv was founded by Vikings, but became the first eastern Slavic state.

But I think what they're talking about is more recent history, with the Muscovy client state of the Khans taking their place and usurping the name Russia.  Ukraine being split between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Russia, with independent Cossacks in the borderlands.  I think the area is a lot like Palestine, a relatively rich land on the borders of larger states, which means a lots of cultures and religions meet and forge a new identity.  But it's a centuries-long struggle to be seen as something other than someone else's borderland.

There's an extent to which the ancient history is just that, ancient history. In the mid 1800s, a real nationalist movement began to develop in Ukraine.  And that makes them just as real as any other nation.  The struggle to decolonize Ukraine continues, whether it's 1000 days, or 100 years.

---

-- Russia’s Largest Film Studio Donated Antique Tanks To The Military -- when your military is running out of tanks
-- North Korea is sending tanks that use 170mm barrels, a very unusual size since Germans last used it WWII, meaning that Russia is reliant on North Korea to provide ammunition.
-- Russian combined arms is starting to look like Ooarai Tankery Club
-- The predictions continue to be that Russia will run out of barrels for tanks and artillery in 2025, assuming China doesn't agree to supply them.  Domestic production is low quality and ~20% of the rate of losses.
-- The next year, and I hope final year of the war, becomes something of a race: will Russia's Soviet-era arms surplus run out first, or will American and European support dry up enough faster?
-- Dark Brandon is finally allowing Ukraine to use long range missiles against Russian clay... in Kursk Oblast.  That's hardly very exciting, even as a major policy change, but it's making Republicans upset.
-- Russia issues obligatory nuclear threat
-- As it starts to get cold, lots of Russian bombings of power plants in Ukraine.
-- Russia is starting to have demographic challenges, which is to say manpower problems, which is another way of saying they are running out of young men to send to the slaughter.  The fact that they are relying on Koreans is very telling.
-- Russia is a state with a low birth rate, just like most of Europe.  They can continue to kill minorities, but they won't be replaced as in previous generations.  Thus the crackdown on the gays to increase the birth rate.
-- Ukraine passes law for civil unions for gay people.  (Their constitution, which can't be amended during martial law, defines marriage as between a man and a woman.)
-- Trump will end the war on day 1 of his presidency, maybe day 2 if he's busy.
-- Russian front lines are advancing in the east with infusion of Korean shock troopers, but slowly.  I'd say at a snail's pace, but it's literally around 5-25% of a snail's pace.
-- Russian ballet dancer and war critic gracelessly falls out of fifth storey window