A new kind of e-poll

[Dartz]

Here in Ireland, the website boards.ie is running their own General Election poll, attempting to predict the outcome of the general election next week. It's rather fascinating because unlike the traditional telephone poll's, this system implements the entire electoral system we use in this country, so you should be getting a more accurate reflection of the end result.

Also, boards.ie is a very diverse website.... you get all sorts there. It's a huge place, with everyone from grannies to scumbags to the occasional Bono posting there. It's fair to say that the userbase is pretty reflective of Irish society (for good or ill, mostly ill)

The actual page is here

The results themselves make for interesting, and mildly worrying reading, especially the showing from Sinn Féin. It'll be interesting to see how close to the final result they get in the end.... though for some I'm hoping that GIFT is an explanation. If this poll were official, Gerry Adams would be a TD.....
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--m(^0^)m-- Wot, no sig?

[Jinx999]

Is it a case where the the polled are volunteers rather than a randomly chosen group of people?
Becasue if so, you can't trust it - the trolls will gather and feast.

[Dartz]

And yet, those who go to the polls Friday week, are also volunteers rather than a group of randomly chosen people. You also have to be a member of the website to use the function. It doesn't appear to have been trolled yet, with most of the results being in the realm of predictability (unfortunately).

The same trolls will also gather at the polls. They're the sort of people who do vote.
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--m(^0^)m-- Wot, no sig?

[Jinx999]

It will be interesting to compare the results.

[Dartz]

Well, the results are in:

The actual results for my constituency: http://www.rte.ie/news/el...results/dublin-west.html

The poll results:

http://www.boards.ie/vote/pr-calc.php?c_id=21

Not that well actually. While the three main elections are correct, they're in the wrong order. The e-poll also gives the final seat as going to Patrick Nulty, rather than Brian Lenihan, though by a close margin. The actual margin ended up being much larger and in the opposite direction.

Otherwise... things appear to be much as was expected. The sitting parties have been absolutely mullered by voters, and there's been a strong shift towards Fine Geal and the Labour party. That could make for a very interesting Dáil, considering that both parties are ideologically somewhat opposite of each other. They may well end up going into coalition together because the other option is an unstable alliance of Independants who will suddenly find themselves very powerful indeed, or Sinn Féin, neither of which are very attactive.

Ah, but such is the beauty of PR-STV to have such a colourful parliament.
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--m(^0^)m-- Wot, no sig?