Korean Conflict to Finally End?

[Dartz]

Amusing that one can win a peace price by threatening nuclear war.

[robkelk]

To quote Orwell, "war is peace."

[Rajvik]

Well Rob, let me first apologize i didn't realize you had posted a link, my bad. However, maybe you should read a bit further considering that it states the following:

The winner is selected by the Nobel Committee from nominations submitted by committee members and others. Nominations for the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize closed just 11 days after Obama took office.

Question, what the bloody hell could he have done in eleven days to get nominated, let alone chosen, especially since the last time a US president was even nominated was Carter, and I even believe that was after he was out of office

[robkelk]

Since the nominations process is confidential, I can only make guesses. I'd have to guess that, whatever Obama did to be nominated, it was something he did before he was elected President.

[robkelk]

AP: Trump Cancels Summit, Citing ‘Open Hostility’ by North Korea

So, everybody who called for Trump to get the Nobel Peace Prize for this summit (and you know who you are), don't hold your breath on that.

[hazard]

North Korea got what it wanted from the world; a chance to show just how unsuited the current US president is and how easily he's played by North Korea.

[SilverFang01]

In the letter he wrote to Kim he humble brags about having a bigger nuclear arsenal and how terrible he would feel if he had to use it.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/24/politics/...index.html

You talk about nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.

[Rajvik]

North Korea got what it wanted from the world; a chance to show just how unsuited the current US president is and how easily he's played by North Korea.

Um, how exactly ? What did the NorKs get out of the US, a little bit of we'll talk if you behave, that's all we've given them. What did the US gain? They returned three prisoners and are supposed to be destroying their nuclear test site.

[robkelk]

... What did the NorKs get out of the US ...

Respect and/or a propaganda coup. Nobody on this side of the Pacific had ever acknowledged their existence other than as a target before this.

[SilverFang01]

Um, how exactly ? What did the NorKs get out of the US, a little bit of we'll talk if you behave, that's all we've given them. What did the US gain? They returned three prisoners and are supposed to be destroying their nuclear test site.

So, the US made some concessions ( The US cancelled a joint US-ROK exercise and eased sanctions on China for this. Not to mention damage to US alliances in PACOM (e.g., willingness to withdraw from ROK)  and got basically nothing (nuclear test site was too damaged to keep in use anyway), have complicated things with Seoul and Tokyo, and generally reinforced the international impression that Trump is an incompetent, impetuous blowhard.

So yeah. North Korea got bupkiss.

[Norgarth]

Um, how exactly ? What did the NorKs get out of the US, a little bit of we'll talk if you behave, that's all we've given them. What did the US gain? They returned three prisoners and are supposed to be destroying their nuclear test site.

So, the US made some concessions ( The US cancelled a joint US-ROK exercise and eased sanctions on China for this. Not to mention damage to US alliances in PACOM (e.g., willingness to withdraw from ROK)  and got basically nothing (nuclear test site was too damaged to keep in use anyway), have complicated things with Seoul and Tokyo, and generally reinforced the international impression that Trump is an incompetent, impetuous blowhard.

So yeah. North Korea got bupkiss.

Unless North Korea's goal was to show Trump as an idiot (internal propaganda maybe?)

[SilverFang01]

So yeah. North Korea got bupkiss.

Unless North Korea's goal was to show Trump as an idiot (internal propaganda maybe?)

The last was intended as sarcasm.

[Bob Schroeck]

If this morning's news is any indication, Trump cancelling the meeting was not the desired result. NK is apparently backpedalling so fast on its recent attitude that they're leaving skidmarks, and basically saying "please please don't cancel, take some more time to think about it". There's something about the meeting they need, and judging from their reactions today, they need it desperately -- they just couldn't keep their feet out of their mouth long enough to get it and basically sabotaged themselves.

[Matrix Dragon]

Hmm, could be there's something they wanted that their mutual stupidity has interfered with, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're just taking advantage of the opportunity Trump has given them to sound like the semi-reasonable side of the argument for a change.

[Rajvik]

... What did the NorKs get out of the US ...

Respect and/or a propaganda coup. Nobody on this side of the Pacific had ever acknowledged their existence other than as a target before this.

Bullshit!

When Albright went over in 97 i think it was, they got a nice big check from Uncle Sam with the promise that they wouldn't try and make any nukes ever. Biggest damn lie they ever sold us. 

Kim wants something, there is no question there. The questions are, what does he want, and how much do we want for it IF we are willing to trade it. Hand over S. Korea, not happening. Take off the sanctions, you know our price buddy.

 (e.g., willingness to withdraw from ROK

Fang, um where did you pick that one up from?

[Labster]

Yeah, they'd need/want foreign aid in North Korea. Normalization of trade wouldn't help NK, because it's too far behind in most things, except for weapons. We'd probably want to stop that, as they mainly sell arms to sanctioned countries. That's kind of the problem with lifting sanctions, as it just creates more problems for us elsewhere in the world. But hey, it's the wide world of diplomacy, where all of the solutions are bad.

Unconditional surrender to South Korea would be the best option for North Korea's people. Unconditional surrender to China would be the second best option. But if wishes were horses we'd all be cleaning up road apples.

[SilverFang01]

... What did the NorKs get out of the US ...

Respect and/or a propaganda coup. Nobody on this side of the Pacific had ever acknowledged their existence other than as a target before this.

 (e.g., willingness to withdraw from ROK

Fang, um where did you pick that one up from?

From here : https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/...ump-218115

With a peace treaty in hand, Kim would undermine the single most important factor justifying the U.S. troop presence in Korea, and by extension, the U.S. alliance with South Korea. Kim need not demand immediate troop withdrawal as part of a peace treaty. At the first sign of post-peace friction, Kim can wave that treaty in America’s face and say, “Yankee go home.” That would immediately spark debates in Seoul about the future of the alliance, and with a peace treaty in hand, anti-American activists in the South will have a much stronger case for pushing out the United States than in decades past.  

Also

Taking Trump at his word during the campaign—when he decried U.S. allies Japan and South Korea as ungrateful free-riders—it would be reasonable to conclude that Trump is willing to forsake U.S. allies in the region by getting Kim to agree to negotiate away his ICBMs but ultimately leave Kim with a regional nuclear strike capability. Nuclear scholars have worried that a North Korean ICBM capability would “decouple” the United States from South Korea—the question of whether America would trade Seattle for Seoul in a nuclear conflict is a rhetorical one. We know the answer. The irony of a nuclear deal between Kim and Trump may actually be that true decoupling will happen when North Korea retains only the ability to strike U.S. allies but not the United States. Kim can simultaneously give a nod in the direction of denuclearization, remove the imminent threat to the U.S. homeland posed by his ICBMs, and expand a wedge between the United States and its allies.

[Rajvik]

Leaving the North Koreans with the ability to even make nukes is not going to be an option if we go and negotiate to help them. Leaving the South completely uncovered isn't likely either, Kim has to know that at least intellectually. That said, we have a lot of power projection capability through Japan, and if we withdrew even to the point of matching the forces there in 1947-1949, we could still hold a section similar to Pusan outside of nuclear weapons.

[hazard]

Okay, 1), with Trump I wouldn't be so sure the US wouldn't pull out of East Asia entirely as long as North Korea makes the right noise. 2) Creating the circumstances for another Korean War would be a terrible idea, and North Korea has an extremely large military for its population. As far as we can tell that military is poorly trained and equipped, but if the north decides to push it's quite likely civilian casualties in South Korea will mount, rapidly, while US and other allied troops are scrambling to relieve the South Koreans.

[robkelk]

And the meeting's back on.

But only as a "getting to know you meeting".

[robkelk]

It's been reported that amongst the US team are Dennis Rodman, Sebastian Gorka, and Sean Hannity - a basketball player and two TV news commentators. Also, it's been reported that there have not been any preparation pre-meetings involving John Bolton, the National Security Advisor.

So... this looks like it's going to be a photo op with low-to-zero substance, right?

All they did at the G7 Summit was actual diplomacy. Why would Trump want to stay for the entirety of that, and, you know, actually work?

[Matrix Dragon]

I'd love to see something good for North Korea come out of this. I doubt it, but I'd love it.

[robkelk]

(blows dust off thread)

North Korea test-fires two "unidentified projectiles"

Looks to me like their nuclear-weapon program is back on track, after a slight pause to deal with the coronavirus.