Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country, Part II

[Dartz]

ICC: Mad Vlad is Bad Lad.



----

People stopped supplying heating oil to the Russian Embassy in Ireland. They called it a Cold War

The city council denied them planning permission to expand their secret underground bunker - marked as 'Void' on the plans

A delivery truck belonging to the company that makes the christ mcnuggets for mass was backed through the gates - Russians aghast gardai didn't throw themselves under the wheels to stop it. It was a special parking operation.

State news refered to Filatov as 'Russian Ambassador to Ireland - for now'

The Irish Government was urged to send old stocks of Javelins to Ukraine. The Irish Olympic Committee wasn't willing to share its already depleted stocks.

Ukrainian refugees are complaining about dangerous drivers on narrow country roads, the complete absence of public services outside of major towns, the complete absence of public transport outside major cities and the complete absence of anything to do outside the pub. Assimilating quickly, so.

[robkelk]

Australian company creates cardboard drone aircraft, sells many to Ukraine

The Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System (PPDS) costs less than $3,500 apiece, a price made possible by the craft's use of FOSS and commercial-off-the-shelf hardware.

Can't imagine why Ukraine would need something disposable that can carry a 3kg payload over a 100km flight path...

For now, SYPAQ hasn't given Corvo's onboard computer wireless capabilities, partly to reduce cost and partly to ensure stealth. But Partridge said Corvos have carried action cameras like the GoPro and users are happy to retrieve removable media once the plane lands.

Oh, right.

[classicdrogn]

TLDR: Simple Cardboard Aeroplane Design means you can have SCADs of them for cheap

Seriously, though, that looks a whole lot like the SPADs that became popular in the R/C aircraft hobby around the late 90s/early turn of the century due to their low cost and durability. P for plastic, as they were notable for using the corrugated plastic sheets you see on roadside political signs and USPS mail baskets, rather than the traditional built up balsa wood or resistive-wire-cut styrene foam and fiberglass that were the hot new materials of the 80s and early 90s. With lighter and more powerful 2020s batteries electric power is a practical long-flight option at last, so the classic two stroke model airplane engines that make a lot of noise and burn lubricated fuel that would leave the wings and body of a plane drenched in oil that would turn a cardboard plane into mush in minutes (or a foam one in a few flights, if poorly sealed against it) are no longer necessary.

[Labster]

It's springtime for Putin, which means that it's once again time for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.  Is it starting today?  Will it start next week?  Did it start two weeks ago?  Russians are publicly unsure about this, with leadership fighting in public, and mobiks already panicking.

-- Ukraine shoots three SuperCum drones out of the sky - these little swimmers are just for observation
-- Four Russian combat aircraft with people in them downed in one day
-- Prigozin says it was probably an error in Russian Air Defense.  Three memes going on here:
---- (1) Ukraine cannot possibly be effective because they're not Russians or Americans, so it's better to blame themselves because let's face it everyone knows how shitty things are in Russia
---- (2) Prigozin is trying to show his Wagner force is competent by making the Russian Army look awful by comparison.
---- (3) What air defense doing?
-- The re-enactment of the Battle of the Somme in Bahkmut continues.  (And I thought it was oVerdun the first time.)  Wagner has been running out of bullet sponges recruited from prisons, which means that they are no longer gaining ground.
-- And have recently lost ground in a week that took three months to take.  Why?  How?  How to prevent it?  Russians have a more important question:  Who is responsible?  Both the Army and the Wagners have said that they are holding their ground in Bakhmut while the other guys ran away like cowards.
-- Meanwhile: Ukrainian artillery still picking their targets by looking for piles of trash in satellite photos.
-- Russia tried to claim that a consumer drone carrying what appeared to be a bottle rocket, which took out a flagpole atop the Kremlin, was an assassination attempt.  Blamed Ukraine, then blamed the United States.  If only there was a word for false claim about a flag.
-- Patriot missiles have been extremely effective, now that they're up and running.  In automatic mode, a Patriot battery took out one of Russia's finest hypersonic missiles.
-- 1990s American tech beats 2020s Russian state of the art.  Kinzhal missiles go very fast but are bad at evading.
-- In unrelated news, Three Russian hypersonic missile scientists are arrested on treason charges.  They should have watched more Robotech.
-- Patriot missile shoots down Russian bomber
-- Zelensky is doing a world tour, currently in Japan for G7.  Leaving the country last year was still unthinkable.  Now everyone knows he's not going to run away, he can go back to presidenting.
-- Russia not attending G8 ((
-- Putin would have attended, but couldn't find a table long enough to reach Japan.
-- More sanctions on the horizon
-- Late-night television hosts Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers now banned from entering Russia.
-- Turkey still holding up NATO approval for Sweden.  Presumably waiting for the election to be over, no matter which way it goes.
-- Accounting error frees $3 billion for Ukraine weapons assistance.  TL;DR they were getting charged the replacement cost for new weapons rather than the depreciated cost of old design weapons they were actually getting.  US military casually losing $3B like it's normal (it is).
-- America allowing allies to export F-16 fighters to Ukraine.  Even though we had said before we were definitely not sending them (until Ukrainians were trained).
-- Ukraine captures T-90 tank, takes it apart, shares report on how it was made.  Other countries cancel orders for T-90s
-- Ukraine didn't win Eurovision this time.  Eurovision organizers continue to pretend that it's apolitical.  Also, fuck the IOC.

-- Head of Ukrainian Supreme Court arrested for bribery.  He was apparently trying to split his bribes with other judges.
-- Meanwhile in America everyone knows that we've got a man on the Supreme Court taking bribes "gifts" and no one's doing anything about it.


Aussies fighting for Ukraine

[nemonowan]

-- Head of Ukrainian Supreme Court arrested for bribery.  He was apparently trying to split his bribes with other judges.
-- Meanwhile in America everyone knows that we've got a man on the Supreme Court taking bribes "gifts" and no one's doing anything about it.

By this time we should all just agree that the concept of a Supreme Court is fundamentally flawed.

[Norgarth]

*looks at photo of soldiers with flag*
Isn't that a New Zealand/kiwi flag rather than Aussie?

[robkelk]

Wagner force

Kill da wabbit, kill da wabbit, kill da wabbit!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

If only there was a word for false claim about a flag.
...
Aussies fighting for Ukraine

*looks at photo of soldiers with flag*
Isn't that a New Zealand/kiwi flag rather than Aussie?

Do I really need to say it?

[hazard]

-- Head of Ukrainian Supreme Court arrested for bribery.  He was apparently trying to split his bribes with other judges.
-- Meanwhile in America everyone knows that we've got a man on the Supreme Court taking bribes "gifts" and no one's doing anything about it.

By this time we should all just agree that the concept of a Supreme Court is fundamentally flawed.

The problem is not the concept of a highest ranked judicial court whose job it is to decide the most important legal matters.

The problem is how do you make sure the men and women who make those decisions are not corrupted by power, money, or other benefits.

[Norgarth]

I've heard that the Dems have introduces bills into both the House and Senate to raise the number of judges on the Supreme Court up to 13, matching the State level courts

How far they get with it is a different matter

[Dartz]

Day 1 of the Ukrainian Military Operation in Russia.

-'Freedom of Russia' forces cross the border into Belgorod Region
-Ukrainian army places a Fig leaf over it --- not us, we swear. Russian seperatists.
-With conspicuously high quality equipment.
-Reports of fighting in towns of Kozinka and Grayvoron
-Belgorod Governer acknowledges 'Terrorism.'
-Claims Border Guards and army are dealing with the issue
-Moscow to fall in two weeks
-'Russian forces' advance as far in as Grayvoron village, meeting sparse resistance from Russian Forces.
-Russian Forces caught napping in border near former major battlezone by 'Russian Forces'.
-'Russian Forces' appear to be digging in to stay.
-Russian Civilians flee towards the city of Belgorod
-Those who remain peek from behind twitching curtains. They've heard of what Russian occupying forces do to civilians, it seems.
-Are Russian Nuclear Weapons Evacuating too
-Mysterious secure Hexagon is just 4 kilometres further up the road from the fighting.
-Did Russia just threaten to nuke Russia in Retaliation?
-According to one random twitter account with no corroborating evidence - Yes


-453 Days into Russia's 3 day Special Military Operation.

[Labster]

Oh for fuck's sake.

Those fucking assholes.

[robkelk]

I assume you're talking about this.

[Labster]

Day 470 of a 3 day war:

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam hit me fairly hard, because it disproportionately hits civilians.  My hometown was one of a few cities affected by the collapse of the St. Francis Dam, where bodies were washed fifty miles downstream, and onto the beaches.  A terrible engineering failure; the Santa Clara remains undammed to this day.  And because of this, it provides over half of the sand on all Southern California beaches.

And then Russia did this on purpose, with the water level in the dam at a record high.  This raises the question of whether or not it was a structural failure -- early seismological evidence suggests it was an explosion -- but caused by bombing or intentional negligence is hardly the same as Mulholland's disaster.  This is something they wanted.  The Dnipro is a massive river, and it's an unimaginable loss of life to humans and animals with a huge amount of pollution unleashed.

-- Russia says they didn't do it.
-- Russia says they didn't do it, and it isn't so bad so why are people so upset about it?
-- And Russia's own positions got flooded and their own troops die.  Why would they pointlessly risk their own citizens?
-- Everyone looks at Russia awkwardly.  (malreynolds.gif)
-- The Dnipro a massive river, a mile across at the end.  Ukraine was not going to invade this way.
-- Russia also destroys other dams
-- UN tweets "Happy Russian Language Day" after the dam collapses, leading to protests against the UN in Ukraine
-- Russians targeting evacuation centers in Kherson, leading to a stop in flood evacuations
-- On the other side of the river, civilians can be evacuated but only if they agree to go to Russia.
-- People vaguely worrying about the Zaporizhzhia power plant which cools with water from the dam, but it also has its own cooling pond which is full.

-- Since I last posted, Bakhmut "fell" to the Wagner PMC forces
-- This means that they controlled most of the city proper, but not all of the defensive lines and artillery positions around the city.  Still a kill box.
-- And immediately after "winning", Wagner troops say it will leave the city in five days, which it did, and let the Russian army take over.
-- Going to rear after an assault is normal, but also seemed like a "we broke it, you bought it" situation for Russia.
-- Wagners complain that all of the roads out of Bakhmut have been mined, making it dangerous for them to leave, as world's smallest violin plays.
-- Theory going around that the Wagners are fucking off to Sudan, so that they can protect Prigozhin's gold mines in the civil war.
-- Of course he has gold mines from helping Sudan's most legitimate government.
-- Again, Bakhmut never had important strategic value, but only a political value to the Russians, and in particular to Prigozhin, who seems himself as Putin's successor.
-- At least Russia now has a safe place to put war materiel, inside of the Soledar mines, which they are doing.
-- Of course this is safe like a crypto exchange: completely "safe" until someone closes off the entrances and suddenly you can't get your dogecoins out.

-- The counteroffensive has begun!
-- There's really not much else in terms of details.  Offensives start with lots of small forces testing for weaknesses, feints, and shuffling troops around.
-- Ukraine is definitely pushing back in Bakhmut, which to me seems like an attempt to pin down some Russian forces while other operations start.
-- The Leopards have finally been unleashed to roam in their natural habitat.
-- Lots of activity in Zaporizhzhia oblast heading southwards, in hopes of encircling the left bank of the Dnipro -- and on some level, also encircling Crimea, given Russia's failure at naval supremacy.

-- Ukrainian BMP catches a fish.  I cannot recommend this 15 second video enough, especially if you're a Girls und Panzer fan.

[Dartz]

So it looks like Prigozhin of Wagner infamy is launching some form of Coup or Coup-adjacent affair.

The Russian government's gone into 'Citadel Protocol'
The Ukrainian government's enacting 'Popcorn Protocol'


This is the second catastrophic implosion this week

[Labster]

If VSR forces want to defeat Wagner, then they have to put Crimea at risk of falling to Ukraine. Possibly the FSO can do something, but maybe they're as much a paper tiger as anything? Say what you will about Wagner, but they have lots of battle experience from Ukraine to Syria to Sudan.

Wagners have shot down a Russian helicopter. Shit has gotten real. Lots of marital law going on, from Rostov to Moscow. Prigozhin says he's marching on Rostov-on-Don now.

NATO and EU accession talks for Ukraine are making progress. Oh, and taking out an bridge/escape route for Russians to get to Crimea has Russians freaking out. The counteroffensive is long, but all in all it's a good week for Ukraine.

[classicdrogn]

So it looks like Prigozhin of Wagner infamy is launching some form of Coup or Coup-adjacent affair.

The Russian government's gone into 'Citadel Protocol'
The Ukrainian government's enacting 'Popcorn Protocol'

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys. Like seriously, if the bottom tenth of humanity tried to be just a little bit less horrible, there wouldn't be nearly so many problems. That would require recognizing something outside immediate self-interest though, so I suppose it's too much to ask.

I can't say it comes as a surprise, though, Putin's basically followed exactly the same pattern of oppression at home and and expansionism abroad as the last three to five times (depending on what exactly you count) a Russian empire has crumbled.

[Labster]

yes this is the right thread.  up next: Swan Lake

[Labster]

Rostov was captured by Wagner forces. They're heading north. I'm just going to quote this quote:

Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow in Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme said: “Rostov is the most important military logistical hub for the Russian armed forces fighting in Ukraine. And yet there were not enough Russian military able or willing to stop Prigozhin taking over the local military HQ.

“A heavily armed Prigozhin then sat down to drink tea with an unarmed deputy defence minister and the deputy head of military intelligence, and moralized them like an angry school teacher. This is so surreal that any deep analysis is difficult at this point but the first round seems to have gone to Prigozhin.”

-- Russian air force Ka-52 bombed a fuel depot that Wagner was using
-- Putin went on TV to call these folks "armed mutiny", "rebellion", "stab in the back" and "treason"
-- Before that Prigozhin was under arrest for criticizing the army too much
-- Remember what happened with Julius Caesar, where he didn't have any choice but to win? Like that, but instead of military genius we have loudmouths like Kadyrov.
-- Actually the Chechens are siding with Putin. Expect Kadyrov's influencer corps to show up on the battlefield soon. (Just not a battlefield near Moscow or Ukraine)
-- Pizza sales in Alexandria, Virginia increase
-- Poland slightly disappointed because its now less likely NATO will do The Funni
-- Chinese looking at this going, "hmmm"
-- Tankies claiming this is all just a giant lure to get Ukraine to overextend their attack
-- Private militaries have always been illegal in Russia, and here we are
-- I guess they're heading north really fast, and have made it to Voronezh. It's almost as if the vast majority of Russia's military is busy elsewhere.
-- Can you smell what Putin's chef is cooking?
-- Honestly everything is really unpredictable. Prigozhin says he wants to finish the war properly, so he might make the war worse... or maybe that's just bluster to take power?
-- I don't think anyone knows if this coup will succeed or not. People in the know seem to think it's more likely to fail, but too early to tell for sure, and still has a good chance of working anyway.
-- Lots of private aircraft leaving Moscow today
-- Even if Putin wins he'll be greatly weakened. You can't be a strongman if you're facing rebellions.
-- Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg agreed to a cage fight. Unrelated to this story, but I thought you'd like to read something less crazy.

[classicdrogn]

I never need an excuse to rewatch that video, and sometimes we all just want someone to hold us. Especially times when The Tower tarot card seems to be dominant.

e: International reactions to the Wagner special military operation
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister is certainly out for blood

The big question of course is whether Putin would be up for popping a nuke (or "just" some poison gas or similar means) on home ground to put an end to it... and exactly what he considers home ground beyond the Moscow city line.

And whether such orders would be followed, and whether the hardware involved had been too badly compromised by graft and/or poor maintenance...

[classicdrogn]

Just posted: Wagner group has moved on to Voronezh

link

[Dartz]

They're a lot further up the road. They're anywhere from 340 to 500km from Moscow.

Putin's not there. His jet left for Yamantau mountain. (Where the Russian button is)

He needed a ride, not some ammo.

[classicdrogn]

Yeah, according to some of this dude's sources, Wagner forces are at the bridges into Moscow or already in the outskirts, others say they're 100km away. Given the big Ukraine flag he's got for a backdrop I expect it's one of the more biased anti-Russia channels, but still.

[robkelk]

Yeah, according to some of this dude's sources, Wagner forces are at the bridges into Moscow or already in the outskirts, others say they're 100km away. Given the big Ukraine flag he's got for a backdrop I expect it's one of the more biased anti-Russia channels, but still.

Alternately, there's at least one news radio report saying he's giving up and turning around because of the potential for bloodshed. Imagine that: a mercenary force that's worried about spilling blood. No, I don't buy that either.

The fog of war is being deliberately thickened here. Don't believe anything without actual verified video.

[Mamorien]

I saw on Even the Liberal MSNBC minutes ago that Prigozhin is indeed standing down. I suspect he made the point he set out to make: that the special military operation war situation had (to borrow a phrase from a public figure of a neighboring nation) developed not necessarily to Russia's advantage, and that he had no intention of going quietly under the wheels of any bus that might be headed his way.

[robkelk]

It's official: Lukashenko brokered a peace deal between Putin and Prigozhin.

One of the terms is that Prigozhin gets to live in Belarus.

Video obtained by Reuters showed troop carriers and two flatbed trucks each carrying a tank driving 50 kilometres beyond Voronezh, more than halfway to Moscow.